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  Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?  (Read 25651 times)
ottermax
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Posts: 1,444
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Political Matrix
E: -4.97, S: -6.52

« on: June 05, 2008, 06:12:28 pm »

What constitutes the suburbs? Depending on the definitions, NYC, Philly, and LA could have suburbs voting for Obama. Here's my list of the top metro areas:

NYC: maybe
LA: no
Chicago: yes
Dallas: no
Philly: maybe
Houston: no
Miami: no
DC: yes
Atlanta: no
Boston: maybe
Detroit: yes
Bay Area: yes
Phoenix: no
Riverside (how is this an MSA larger than Seattle!?): no
Seattle: yes
Minneapolis: yes
San Diego: no
St. Louis: maybe
Tampa: no
Baltimore: yes
Denver: maybe
Pittsburgh: no
Portland: yes
Cincinnati: definitely not
Cleveland: no
Sacramento: no
Orlando: no
San Antonio: no
Kansas City: maybe??
Las Vegas: maybe??

The rest of the top 60 except San Jose, Richmond, and Honolulu will not vote for Obama.


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ottermax
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,444
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.97, S: -6.52

« Reply #1 on: June 05, 2008, 06:27:58 pm »

Working class suburbs in LA will vote for Obama. How is the San fernando valley classified because it will vote for Obama too.

That's my problem. The LA suburbs in the county should mostly vote for Obama, but OC won't. Also, San Diego city should vote for Obama, but most of the "city" is a suburb.
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ottermax
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,444
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.97, S: -6.52

« Reply #2 on: January 03, 2009, 05:25:43 pm »

What constitutes the suburbs? Depending on the definitions, NYC, Philly, and LA could have suburbs voting for Obama. Here's my list of the top metro areas:

NYC: maybe
LA: no
Chicago: yes
Dallas: no
Philly: maybe
Houston: no
Miami: no
DC: yes
Atlanta: no
Boston: maybe
Detroit: yes
Bay Area: yes
Phoenix: no
Riverside (how is this an MSA larger than Seattle!?): no
Seattle: yes
Minneapolis: yes
San Diego: no
St. Louis: maybe
Tampa: no
Baltimore: yes
Denver: maybe
Pittsburgh: no
Portland: yes
Cincinnati: definitely not
Cleveland: no
Sacramento: no
Orlando: no
San Antonio: no
Kansas City: maybe??
Las Vegas: maybe??

The rest of the top 60 except San Jose, Richmond, and Honolulu will not vote for Obama.




San Jose suburbs are part of the Bay Area

I agree with you. I just took the list of the 60 largest MSAs in the country and put them there. I personally think that Riverside is part of LA and San Jose is part of the San Francisco-Oakland MSA (which I mistakenly called the Bay Area) but the census doesn't...
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ottermax
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*****
Posts: 1,444
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.97, S: -6.52

« Reply #3 on: January 03, 2009, 06:07:42 pm »

Here's my estimate of the top 30 MSAs' suburbs vote.

NYC: Obama
LA: Obama
Chicago: Obama
Dallas: McCain
Philly: Obama
Houston: McCain
Miami: Obama (I forgot that the suburbs are more Democratic because of the Cuban vote)
DC: Obama
Atlanta: McCain
Boston: Obama
Detroit: Obama
San Francisco-Oakland: Obama
Phoenix: McCain
Riverside: Obama (big surprise, although close)
Seattle: Obama
Minneapolis: McCain (another surprise... I never realized the split here)
San Diego: Not Sure, but probably Obama (depends on definition of suburb I'll have to wait until CA release city data)
St. Louis: Probably Obama
Tampa: Probably McCain
Baltimore: Probably Obama
Denver: Obama
Pittsburgh: McCain
Portland: Obama
Cincinnati: McCain
Cleveland: Obama
Sacramento: Probably Obama
Orlando: Obama (a huge surprise)
San Antonio: McCain
Kansas City: McCain
Las Vegas: Obama

Feedback would be great! My results look too good for Obama, but he did astonishingly well in many suburbs in large metro areas. However he did horribly in small towns, so there is some balance.
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ottermax
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,444
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.97, S: -6.52

« Reply #4 on: January 03, 2009, 08:56:37 pm »

Here's my estimate of the top 30 MSAs' suburbs vote.
St. Louis: Probably Obama

St. Louis County was 59%-39% Obama; St. Charles with 1/3 the vote was McCain 54%-45%. Pretty solid Obama.

Quote
Baltimore: Probably Obama

Yeah. Baltimore County was solid for Obama. Frederick County, strong for Obama, mirrors Harford County, strong for McCain. Carroll County was strong for McCain but much smaller than Baltimore County.

Everything else looks good.

My problem is that the MSAs include some counties that are far from their central cities like Queen Anne County across Cheasepeake Bay from Maryland. But by conventional meanings of suburbs, Baltimore's did vote for Obama.
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