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  Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?  (Read 25990 times)
nclib
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« on: June 05, 2008, 05:54:01 pm »

i.e. metro area - central city

Boston, San Francisco, NYC, DC, Philly...

can anyone think of others?
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nclib
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« Reply #1 on: June 05, 2008, 07:30:51 pm »


The home state bounce might be enough to push Obama over the top, but I think Bush carried every county in the Chicago metro other than Cook, though I'm not sure how the Cook County suburbs voted.
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nclib
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« Reply #2 on: June 05, 2008, 08:05:53 pm »

Without an effective definition of what "suburbs" are for each of these places, this thread almost useless.

I clarified in the first post:


Though I would imagine some metro areas would be a bit more complicated if the metro has two central cities (ex. Minneapolis/St.Paul) or those with overlapping areas (ex. WDC/Balt).


If St. Paul also qualifies as a center city, BRTD calculated a while back that the Twin Cities suburbs voted for Bush, or perhaps do you think that area would swing towards Obama?
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nclib
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« Reply #3 on: June 07, 2008, 07:43:02 pm »

I looked up the Detroit metro area and Kerry did win the metro vote outside of Detroit. This somewhat surprised me since I didn't think it had a sizable minority population or was socially liberal, especially given that Ann Arbor (Washtenaw) is not in Detroit metro.
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nclib
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« Reply #4 on: January 02, 2009, 10:51:02 pm »

bump

Most of those mentioned, and perhaps Miami and/or Orlando.
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nclib
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« Reply #5 on: April 12, 2009, 11:32:35 am »

bump - now that the Calif. city/town numbers are out. The Bay Area obviously did, SD missed narrowly, haven't checked the others.
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nclib
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« Reply #6 on: April 12, 2009, 08:55:35 pm »

bump - now that the Calif. city/town numbers are out. The Bay Area obviously did, SD missed narrowly, haven't checked the others.

Depends on what type of SD suburb we are talking about. Obama won the coastal and affluent 50th CD 51-47. He lost by more than that in the inland redneck/middle class 52nd CD. He also did very well in the inner suburbs of San Diego.

I'm defining suburbs as "metro area - central city". In this case, metro SD is just SD county. According to this site , Obama won the city of SD 62.5%-35.7% and McCain won the remainder of the county 50.5%-47.8%.
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nclib
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« Reply #7 on: April 21, 2009, 09:53:49 pm »

The rest of the top 60 except San Jose, Richmond, and Honolulu will not vote for Obama.

Richmond suburbs probably did not vote for Obama. Didn't do the math, but that MSA is quite large.

Correct.

But some of the other top-60 MSAs did. All three in Connecticut (Hartford, Bridgeport and New Haven suburbs), Albany suburbs, possibly Albuquerque suburbs, maybe the Hampton Roads suburbs depending on how they're defined (which is tough given that the area is mostly independent cities, but some of the independent cities are really big geographically). And, I haven't done the math, but the Raleigh (!) suburbs may have voted for Obama. Certainly they were within single-digits. (Of course, the Research Triangle suburbs all together clearly voted for Obama, but Durham-Chapel Hill and Raleigh-Cary are different MSAs.)

Certainly Providence, RI did. It's worth checking Columbus (OH), Buffalo (NY) and Rochester (NY).
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nclib
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« Reply #8 on: April 28, 2009, 06:34:42 pm »

The funny thing is, based on the stuff he was saying at the time he probably had basically only the primary results in mind when he made that statement. He frequently said Obama was in big trouble in Montco.

I wish you could pull up a quote.  WOW, if anything I thought Montco was gonna be his saving grace, not like he even needed it.  I was afraid of a racial backlash coming from South and to an extent Northeast Philly.  Initial polls were not looking good in these areas for Obama pre-economic collapse.  There was one South Philly Ward leader where Kerry won with 71% saying he'd be lucky to see Obama pull 50% and another in a Ward in the Northeast say he'd be lucky to pull 1/3 of the vote pre-collapse (Obama actually won by 17 in that Ward).

I think BRTD was referring to J.J.'s predictions.

bump - now that the Calif. city/town numbers are out. The Bay Area obviously did, SD missed narrowly, haven't checked the others.

Depends on what type of SD suburb we are talking about. Obama won the coastal and affluent 50th CD 51-47. He lost by more than that in the inland redneck/middle class 52nd CD. He also did very well in the inner suburbs of San Diego.

I'm defining suburbs as "metro area - central city". In this case, metro SD is just SD county. According to this site , Obama won the city of SD 62.5%-35.7% and McCain won the remainder of the county 50.5%-47.8%.

There are plenty of places that are definitely "suburbs of San Diego" by any reasonable definition but which are technically in the city of San Diego proper, so you do have to be quite careful.

I understand that. The reverse is true in places like Boston. For the purposes of this thread, I'm using "metro area - central city", because otherwise it would be too complicated to define each neighborhood as "urban" or suburban" and then find election results for it.
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nclib
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« Reply #9 on: July 17, 2009, 09:09:22 pm »

Buffalo's MSA has only two counties, both of which voted for Obama, and as Kerry won Erie county outside of Buffalo, Obama had to as well. I doubt Rochester or Columbus did though.

Buffalo did, and Obama eked out a win in the Rochester suburbs. Didn't win Columbus's suburbs though.
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