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  Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?  (Read 25646 times)
Brittain33
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« on: January 03, 2009, 10:09:39 am »

The Philly 'burbs are questionable.

Delco: +21%
Montco: +20%
Chester: +9%
Bucks: +8.6%
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1 on: January 03, 2009, 01:39:55 pm »
« Edited: January 03, 2009, 01:43:46 pm by brittain33 »

Oh come on, J.J.'s comment was in JUNE, a lot of places were still up in the air, especially suburbs.  I hate this stupid after-the-fact crap, it's so childish.

It's a little childish--and I've generally avoided piling on J.J. for several months--but it also shows the danger of making really bold, unsupported predictions in the face of conflicting evidence that includes 15+ years of Democratic trending and voting plus the sharp unpopularity of the incumbent party. If the Philly suburbs were "iffy", then McCain is winning Pennsylvania widely (given Obama's known weaknesses out west) and the country by a sizable margin. That wasn't particularly reasonable in June. 2010 is coming up and soon we'll be in another cycle of people arguing their guts and their wish lists for competitiveness and refusing to take no for an answer.

If Obama had won the suburbs of Philly narrowly, then that would be something, but this is different.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #2 on: January 03, 2009, 07:04:21 pm »

Here's my estimate of the top 30 MSAs' suburbs vote.
St. Louis: Probably Obama

St. Louis County was 59%-39% Obama; St. Charles with 1/3 the vote was McCain 54%-45%. Pretty solid Obama.

Quote
Baltimore: Probably Obama

Yeah. Baltimore County was solid for Obama. Frederick County, strong for Obama, mirrors Harford County, strong for McCain. Carroll County was strong for McCain but much smaller than Baltimore County.

Everything else looks good.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #3 on: January 04, 2009, 01:09:23 pm »


My problem is that the MSAs include some counties that are far from their central cities like Queen Anne County across Cheasepeake Bay from Maryland. But by conventional meanings of suburbs, Baltimore's did vote for Obama.

Yes, it's true... it doesn't concern me because many of these counties have 10% or less of the votes of the central suburban counties and McCain didn't win by a big margin, so I felt comfortable saying they didn't make a big difference. If the exurbs of Baltimore voted like the exurbs of Dallas, that would be another matter.
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