Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Meeker]

Tightening my ass...

TMI.

I suppose a few punctuation marks might've been helpful.

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday, October 29th, 2008

RV
Obama: 51% (+1)
McCain: 42% (-1)

LV (Expanded)
Obama: 51% (nc)
McCain: 44% (nc)

LV (Traditional)
Obama: 49%
McCain: 46% (-1)


Tightening my ass...

Maybe Dave can take Bob Dylan's advice and take the rag away from his face now.

I'd be a lot more happier if those registered voters who give Obama a comfortable 9-point lead turned out and voted

Dave

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Wednesday, October 29th, 2008

RV
Obama: 51% (+1)
McCain: 42% (-1)

LV (Expanded)
Obama: 51% (nc)
McCain: 44% (nc)

LV (Traditional)
Obama: 49%
McCain: 46% (-1)

for McCain to win, this is what the final Gallup poll would have to look like, IMO:

RV
Obama: 49%
McCain: 44%

LV (Expanded)
Obama: 49%
McCain: 46%

LV (Traditional)
Obama: 48%
McCain: 47%

[Meeker]

Wednesday, October 29th, 2008

RV
Obama: 51% (+1)
McCain: 42% (-1)

LV (Expanded)
Obama: 51% (nc)
McCain: 44% (nc)

LV (Traditional)
Obama: 49%
McCain: 46% (-1)

for McCain to win, this is what the final Gallup poll would have to look like, IMO:

RV
Obama: 49%
McCain: 44%

LV (Expanded)
Obama: 49%
McCain: 46%

LV (Traditional)
Obama: 48%
McCain: 47%

At this point McCain would probably need to be ahead by at least 2 or 3 points in the traditional voter model to account for early voting.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

At this point McCain would probably need to be ahead by at least 2 or 3 points in the traditional voter model to account for early voting.

that brings up a question:  don't these polls query those who have already voted early?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Phew! Good news.

I think all that's going on here is shaky Republicans finally going with McCain. As long as Obama can remain above 50 he should be fine.

[Lief 🗽]

Guys, this exact same "tightening" happened in 2006. For the last week, the Republicans gained a little bit in the generic congressional ballot as well as in the competitive Senate races, and yet they still lost 30 house seats and 6 senate seats. As long as Obama stays above 50 and McCain stays stuck in the mid-40s, we're good.

Plus, the state polls still indicate a pretty solid Obama lead.

[Meeker]

At this point McCain would probably need to be ahead by at least 2 or 3 points in the traditional voter model to account for early voting.

that brings up a question:  don't these polls query those who have already voted early?

Good point. I had been subconsciously assuming they weren't when I made that statement, but they very well might be.

[Alcon]

At this point McCain would probably need to be ahead by at least 2 or 3 points in the traditional voter model to account for early voting.

that brings up a question:  don't these polls query those who have already voted early?

Good point. I had been subconsciously assuming they weren't when I made that statement, but they very well might be.

They are.  They're separated in Rasmussen, and are Obama +9.  The poll closeness comes from future likely voters, who are tied.  No reason for a poll to exclude early voters; they're automatically made LVs, I imagine.

I wonder if they skip the LV screen for those who claim to be AVs.

[TheGlobalizer]

Enough with "Christian Democrat" thing, Dave. You're like a broken record.

Personally, I'm still hoping he's a closet athiest/non-religious, but that's me.

If he came out and said he was an atheist, he might get my vote.

He would, of course, lose the election, however.

[Verily]

At this point McCain would probably need to be ahead by at least 2 or 3 points in the traditional voter model to account for early voting.

that brings up a question:  don't these polls query those who have already voted early?

Good point. I had been subconsciously assuming they weren't when I made that statement, but they very well might be.

They are.  They're separated in Rasmussen, and are Obama +9.  The poll closeness comes from future likely voters, who are tied.  No reason for a poll to exclude early voters; they're automatically made LVs, I imagine.

I wonder if they skip the LV screen for those who claim to be AVs.

Of course, Rasmussen wasn't very good at screening early voters for the California primary, so who knows. I think McCain has to lead by a point or two on election day to win at this point. more in states like Virginia and Ohio which have early voting (although Ohio early voting has not seemed all that spectacular).

[exopolitician]

Enough with "Christian Democrat" thing, Dave. You're like a broken record.

Personally, I'm still hoping he's a closet athiest/non-religious, but that's me.

If he came out and said he was an atheist, he might get my vote.

He would, of course, lose the election, however.

Shame.

[Verily]

Thursday, October 30th, 2008

RV
Obama: 50% (-1)
McCain: 42% (nc)

LV (Expanded)
Obama: 51% (nc)
McCain: 44% (nc)

LV (Traditional)
Obama: 50% (+1)
McCain: 45% (-1)

[Eraserhead]

Thursday, October 30th, 2008

RV
Obama: 50% (-1)
McCain: 42% (nc)

LV (Expanded)
Obama: 51% (nc)
McCain: 44% (nc)

LV (Traditional)
Obama: 50% (+1)
McCain: 45% (-1)

Awesome.

[J. J.]

Thursday, October 30th, 2008

RV
Obama: 50% (-1)
McCain: 42% (nc)

LV (Expanded)
Obama: 51% (nc)
McCain: 44% (nc)

LV (Traditional)
Obama: 50% (+1)
McCain: 45% (-1)

This should be troubling to McCain supporters.

[Rowan]

Thursday, October 30th, 2008

RV
Obama: 50% (-1)
McCain: 42% (nc)

LV (Expanded)
Obama: 51% (nc)
McCain: 44% (nc)

LV (Traditional)
Obama: 50% (+1)
McCain: 45% (-1)

This should be troubling to McCain supporters.

Uhh, it should?

[Torie]

It is interesting that the traditional and expanded LV models are now merging. Is that by accident or design, as Gallup struggles to make a prediction on the actual turnout model as we get close to the wire?

[elcorazon]

Thursday, October 30th, 2008

RV
Obama: 50% (-1)
McCain: 42% (nc)

LV (Expanded)
Obama: 51% (nc)
McCain: 44% (nc)

LV (Traditional)
Obama: 50% (+1)
McCain: 45% (-1)

because the weekend is not reflected in these numbers, McCain should be doing better.  Let's see what happens this weekend with the Obama bounce.  If Obama fails to extend his lead, then this would mean that something is wrong here and the race is still tight.

[Verily]

It is interesting that the traditional and expanded LV models are now merging. Is that by accident or design, as Gallup struggles to make a prediction on the actual turnout model as we get close to the wire?

For some reason, the "traditional" turnout model was coming up with more likely voters than the "expanded" turnout model for a long time. That has now reversed and may help to explain the convergence.

[Sarnstrom]

Looks great!

[Wiz in Wis]

There appears to be a growing consensus among pollsters that Obama has about a 5-7 point solid lead. Gallup seems to be splitting the difference between the two...

So yes, this should trouble McCain supporters, because now Obama gets 50% virtually everywhere in the trackers

[Sbane]

It is interesting that the traditional and expanded LV models are now merging. Is that by accident or design, as Gallup struggles to make a prediction on the actual turnout model as we get close to the wire?

For some reason, the "traditional" turnout model was coming up with more likely voters than the "expanded" turnout model for a long time. That has now reversed and may help to explain the convergence.

Or as more and more "unlikely" voters come out and vote early, perhaps Gallup adjusts its model or maybe it is the people who have already voted who are causing the convergence.

[Torie]

It is interesting that the traditional and expanded LV models are now merging. Is that by accident or design, as Gallup struggles to make a prediction on the actual turnout model as we get close to the wire?

For some reason, the "traditional" turnout model was coming up with more likely voters than the "expanded" turnout model for a long time. That has now reversed and may help to explain the convergence.

How does an expanded model contract the number of voters?  That concept is just a bit too abstract for me. 

[Reds4]

Interesting that Obama actually lost a point among registered but gained among traditional likely voters... agreed that this isn't good news for McCain... too late in the game to be pleased with being down 5 or 6.

[Eraserhead]

Thursday, October 30th, 2008

RV
Obama: 50% (-1)
McCain: 42% (nc)

LV (Expanded)
Obama: 51% (nc)
McCain: 44% (nc)

LV (Traditional)
Obama: 50% (+1)
McCain: 45% (-1)

This should be troubling to McCain supporters.

Uhh, it should?

Are you completely divorced from reality or this just an act?