Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]
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  Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]
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Author Topic: Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]  (Read 296984 times)
J. J.
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« Reply #200 on: July 14, 2008, 08:13:04 PM »

My guess is less than 4 points, probably 2-3, for Obama.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #201 on: July 15, 2008, 12:06:06 PM »

Tuesday - July 15, 2008:

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 43% (nc)
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J. J.
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« Reply #202 on: July 15, 2008, 01:26:49 PM »

It looks like my guess was pretty good.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #203 on: July 16, 2008, 12:08:18 PM »

Wednesday - July 16, 2008:

Obama - 47% (nc)
McCain - 44% (+1)
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #204 on: July 16, 2008, 08:34:09 PM »

Obama Maintaining Support Among Liberals [16 July, 2008]

Support may be increasing slightly

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108859/Obama-Maintaining-Support-Among-Liberals.aspx

Presidential Trial Heat Vote, By Party and Ideology, July 7-13 Gallup Daily Tracking

Liberal Democrats: Obama 92%; McCain 5%

Moderate Democrats: Obama 79%; McCain 10%

Conservative Democrats: Obama 68%; McCain 20%

Moderate/Liberal Republicans: Obama 20%; McCain 73%

Conservative Republicans: Obama 6%; McCain 90%

Dave
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Nutmeg
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« Reply #205 on: July 17, 2008, 12:06:10 AM »

Liberal Democrats: Obama 92%; McCain 5%

Conservative Republicans: Obama 6%; McCain 90%

It seems there's always a percentage of people who just have no idea what's going on or who enjoy screwing with pollsters who bother them at home.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #206 on: July 17, 2008, 12:14:19 AM »

Well, 1 or 2% of that is probably Clinton or Huckabee/Romney/Paul supporters who are still disgruntled.
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #207 on: July 17, 2008, 12:16:59 AM »

Liberal Democrats: Obama 92%; McCain 5%

Conservative Republicans: Obama 6%; McCain 90%

It seems there's always a percentage of people who just have no idea what's going on or who enjoy screwing with pollsters who bother them at home.
Yeah. Like the 3% of Rhode Island voters who approved of George Bush and  then voted for Sheldon Whitehouse.
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J. J.
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« Reply #208 on: July 17, 2008, 01:06:56 PM »


Thursday - July 17, 2008:

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 44% (nc)


Just reported on MSNBC
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J. J.
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« Reply #209 on: July 17, 2008, 01:18:27 PM »

While last week it appeared to be 4-6 point race, it now appears to be 0-3 point race.
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Person Man
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« Reply #210 on: July 17, 2008, 02:51:35 PM »

Yeah. I wonder why. Perhaps its cyclical. I just don't see why McCain is doing well now when Obama is ahead in places like Colorado and Virginia and that McCain is struggling in the Northern Plains. My guess is that the campaign has just died down. Still, non-trackers show a 4-7 point race.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #211 on: July 18, 2008, 12:38:55 PM »

Friday, July 18, 2008

Obama - 45% (-1)
McCain - 44% (nc)

Obama still holds a slight edge, but with just 45% of registered voters saying they would vote for him in November, versus 44% for McCain. McCain's current support, based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted July 15-17, falls at the upper end of the 42% to 44% range seen for him since late June.

The dip in support for Obama to 45% from 46% in Thursday's report and from 47% earlier this week (when he held a four percentage point lead over McCain) is not statistically significant. It will be important to see whether today's figures are maintained for several days before it can be determined that the race has narrowed to a virtual tie.
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J. J.
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« Reply #212 on: July 18, 2008, 04:01:31 PM »

Both Gallup and Rasmussen agree.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #213 on: July 19, 2008, 12:30:36 PM »

Saturday - July 19, 2008:

Obama - 45% (nc)
McCain - 43% (-1)

These results are based on interviews conducted July 16-18. In Friday's report, Barack Obama's support fell out of the narrow 46%-48% range it had been in for the prior 18 reports, and remains outside that range today. However, Obama had a stronger night in Friday interviewing and could inch back into that range with another strong performance tonight.
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Rowan
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« Reply #214 on: July 19, 2008, 12:40:05 PM »

Obama usually does better on summer weekend polling.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #215 on: July 19, 2008, 01:57:29 PM »

Obama is really running away with this race!
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J. J.
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« Reply #216 on: July 19, 2008, 02:10:21 PM »

The "strong night" might the weekend shift seen in previous weeks.
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Umengus
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« Reply #217 on: July 19, 2008, 05:29:15 PM »

and for likely voters ?  it stays the best for me. I don't care about RV who will not vote. Go in hell !
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Alcon
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« Reply #218 on: July 19, 2008, 05:33:56 PM »

and for likely voters ?  it stays the best for me. I don't care about RV who will not vote. Go in hell !

LV's tend to get more useful as election season goes on, and RV less so.  Early on, ignoring RV's in favor of LV's is potentially a bad idea.

RV's that aren't LV's are not unlikely voters.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #219 on: July 20, 2008, 12:02:34 PM »

Sunday - July 20, 2008:

Obama - 45% (nc)
McCain - 42% (-1)
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Rowan
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« Reply #220 on: July 20, 2008, 12:10:08 PM »

It isn't just a coincidence that Obama's lead increases over the weekend every time in the Gallup poll.
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Beet
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« Reply #221 on: July 20, 2008, 01:41:17 PM »

Again, the large number of undecideds (13 in this poll) is remarkable, if not unique for Gallup.

I'm guessing a lot of traditionally Democratic working class whites and suburban moderates who are sick of Repubs and would normally be going for the Dem nominee are staying undecided. In places like West Virginia, Ohio and New Hampshire, these voters broke against Obama in the closing days.
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J. J.
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« Reply #222 on: July 20, 2008, 01:48:44 PM »

We need to wait to Wednesday.
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Rowan
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« Reply #223 on: July 20, 2008, 03:00:56 PM »

Again, the large number of undecideds (13 in this poll) is remarkable, if not unique for Gallup.

I'm guessing a lot of traditionally Democratic working class whites and suburban moderates who are sick of Repubs and would normally be going for the Dem nominee are staying undecided. In places like West Virginia, Ohio and New Hampshire, these voters broke against Obama in the closing days.

And they are undecided because Obama is a flawed candidate.
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Umengus
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« Reply #224 on: July 20, 2008, 05:16:39 PM »

and for likely voters ?  it stays the best for me. I don't care about RV who will not vote. Go in hell !

LV's tend to get more useful as election season goes on, and RV less so.  Early on, ignoring RV's in favor of LV's is potentially a bad idea.

RV's that aren't LV's are not unlikely voters.

what then ?
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