Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Alcon]

and for likely voters ?  it stays the best for me. I don't care about RV who will not vote. Go in hell !

LV's tend to get more useful as election season goes on, and RV less so.  Early on, ignoring RV's in favor of LV's is potentially a bad idea.

RV's that aren't LV's are not unlikely voters.

what then ?

Well, any voter who fails the LV screen...that doesn't mean they are unlikely to vote, necessarily.  Plenty of them will vote.

[Beet]

Again, the large number of undecideds (13 in this poll) is remarkable, if not unique for Gallup.

I'm guessing a lot of traditionally Democratic working class whites and suburban moderates who are sick of Repubs and would normally be going for the Dem nominee are staying undecided. In places like West Virginia, Ohio and New Hampshire, these voters broke against Obama in the closing days.

And they are undecided because Obama is a flawed candidate.

There is no such thing as a non-flawed candidate, and if there was, I would be highly suspicious of him or her. As opposed to a lot of people, my opinion of Obama actually improved after he showed that he's not perfect.

[Democratic Hawk]

Again, the large number of undecideds (13 in this poll) is remarkable, if not unique for Gallup.

I'm guessing a lot of traditionally Democratic working class whites and suburban moderates who are sick of Repubs and would normally be going for the Dem nominee are staying undecided.

The undecideds could well be waiting to see whether or not Obama crosses their "acceptability threshold" and if he does they'll likely break his way and he wins; but if not ...

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Only then it was Democrat vs Democrat ... I'm far from certain but I'd guess that, nationally, those Democratic primary voters who were most concerned about the economy favored Clinton

Far from this race being Obama's to lose, it's Obama's to win and he's not there yet because, rightly or wrongly, McCain's standing is, well, higher than that of his president and party. He has a compelling story to tell of war heroism (not that it mattered in 2000); as well as the reputation for being a "maverick" - whatever

Dave

[Beet]

Again, the large number of undecideds (13 in this poll) is remarkable, if not unique for Gallup.

I'm guessing a lot of traditionally Democratic working class whites and suburban moderates who are sick of Repubs and would normally be going for the Dem nominee are staying undecided.

The undecideds could well be waiting to see whether or not Obama crosses their "acceptability threshold" and if he does they'll likely break his way and he wins; but if not ...

Yeah, I think so. Part of this is the "Commander in Chief" threshold that was much talked about earlier in the year. This is going to be a sticking point for Obama because of his background & relative inexperience, something that still must be handled (along with whatever the GOP attack plan is for August & September). Hence, the necessity of his going overseas.

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Only then it was Democrat vs Democrat ... I'm far from certain but I'd guess that, nationally, those Democratic primary voters who were most concerned about the economy favored Clinton

Far from this race being Obama's to lose, it's Obama's to win and he's not there yet because, rightly or wrongly, McCain's standing is, well, higher than that of his president and party. He has a compelling story to tell of war heroism (not that it mattered in 2000); as well as the reputation for being a "maverick" - whatever
[/quote]

Yeah pretty much.

[Tender Branson]

Monday July 21, 2008:

Obama - 47% (+2)
McCain - 41% (-1)

[Lief 🗽]

Well, Gallup and Rasmussen disagree completely again. Hooray!

[Rowan]

This is a complete weekend sample in Gallup polling. Obama's numbers have ALWAYS been inflated on weekends so far.

[Alcon]

This is a complete weekend sample in Gallup polling.

Unless it's a long weekend, that's never going to be the case.  Gallup is a three-day tracker.

[J. J.]

This is a complete weekend sample in Gallup polling.

Unless it's a long weekend, that's never going to be the case.  Gallup is a three-day tracker.

Saturday, Sunday and Monday, the reported on Tuesday.

[Lunar]

This is a complete weekend sample in Gallup polling.

Unless it's a long weekend, that's never going to be the case.  Gallup is a three-day tracker.

Are people going to vote in November on a weekend?  That's the big question.

[Alcon]

This is a complete weekend sample in Gallup polling.

Unless it's a long weekend, that's never going to be the case.  Gallup is a three-day tracker.

Saturday, Sunday and Monday, the reported on Tuesday.

Err?

It's Monday.  This poll is Friday-Sunday.  So, it's not "all-weekend."  I don't think last Friday was a holiday, was it?

[Rowan]

This is a complete weekend sample in Gallup polling.

Unless it's a long weekend, that's never going to be the case.  Gallup is a three-day tracker.

Saturday, Sunday and Monday, the reported on Tuesday.

Err?

It's Monday.  This poll is Friday-Sunday.  So, it's not "all-weekend."  I don't think last Friday was a holiday, was it?

Friday is part of the weekend. People are out doing things, do you really think that is a good time to poll?

[J. J.]

This is a complete weekend sample in Gallup polling.

Unless it's a long weekend, that's never going to be the case.  Gallup is a three-day tracker.

Saturday, Sunday and Monday, the reported on Tuesday.

Err?

It's Monday.  This poll is Friday-Sunday.  So, it's not "all-weekend."  I don't think last Friday was a holiday, was it?

Ah, I should have ckecked the calendar.

Still, you have 2 days from the weekend in this and tomorrow's sample.

[Democratic Hawk]

This is a complete weekend sample in Gallup polling.

That it is. From gallup:

These results are based on July 18-20 polling, including two days since Obama began his much publicized overseas trip to visit the Middle East, Afghanistan, and Europe. It is unclear at this point whether the trip will boost Obama's poll standing, but his performance in Sunday interviewing was one of his stronger in Gallup Poll Daily tracking, and his current six percentage point lead is among the largest he has held over McCain to date. Tuesday's Gallup Poll Daily tracking report will be the first in which all interviews were conducted since Obama began his trip abroad.

Since Obama clinched the Democratic presidential nomination in early June, he has typically held an advantage over McCain, which has averaged three points, but been as large as seven points.

The current results also mark the first time in more than three weeks that McCain's share of the trial heat vote has not been in the 42% to 44% range. In fact, it matches a June 7-9 reading as McCain's lowest level of support since Gallup began tracking general election preferences in March.

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They've tended to be higher at weekends; but whether or not weekend polling is any more or less 'accurate' than weekday polling I don't know

Dave

[Person Man]

It could simply be the case that Obama's base is simply much busier than McCain's. This could help McCain since the election is on Tuesday, but the enthusaism gap is so big that it might not even matter.

[Sam Spade]

It could simply be the case that Obama's base is simply much busier than McCain's. This could help McCain since the election is on Tuesday, but the enthusaism gap is so big that it might not even matter.

Busier with what?

[Democratic Hawk]

Tuesday, July 22, 2008:

Obama - 45% (-2)
McCain - 42% (+1)

Obama performed above par with voters in two of the last four days of Gallup Poll Daily tracking, spanning a period of heavy news coverage of his overseas trip to Europe, Afghanistan, and the Middle East. This resulted in the race widening slightly to a difference of six percentage points in Monday's report based on interviewing conducted July 18-20. However, interviewing Monday night showed a closer race, suggesting that the question of how much bounce Obama may receive from his trip is still an open one.

Longer term, the race has been quite stable. Obama's current 3-point lead in the race is nearly identical to the average lead he has held over McCain thus far in July, and matches his 3-point advantage in the race for the month of June.

[J. J.]

Do the terms "0-3 point race" and "weekends" ring a bell to anyone?

[Gustaf]

It could simply be the case that Obama's base is simply much busier than McCain's. This could help McCain since the election is on Tuesday, but the enthusaism gap is so big that it might not even matter.

1: McCain's base are almost certainly busier than Obama's.
2: the candidate with the more enthusiastic supporters is not necessarily underestimated in polling. I think the opposite is more likely.

[elcorazon]

Do the terms "0-3 point race" and "weekends" ring a bell to anyone?

do the terms "arrogant" and "broken record" ring a bell to anyone?

[Rowan]

The friday polling sample dropped off on this average. Too bad elections aren't held on weekends or Obama would win by 10 points.

[Eraserhead]

The friday polling sample dropped off on this average. Too bad elections aren't held on weekends or Obama would win by 10 points.

It is too bad. It would allow a lot more people to vote.

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday, July 23, 2008:

Obama - 46% (+1)
McCain - 42% (nc)

The big news from Gallup Poll Daily tracking is the continuing stability of this race. Many observers (and based on its reaction, the McCain campaign itself) have hypothesized that Obama could have the chance of making a major breakthrough in voter sentiment as a result of the streaming video and photos and news coverage of the Illinois senator with U.S. troops, military commanders, and foreign leaders. As of Tuesday night's interviewing, however, this has not materialized.

Perhaps the signal event of Obama's overseas trip will be a forthcoming speech before tens of thousands in Germany later this week. It remains to be seen whether or not news coverage of this speech will alter the support patterns among American voters.

[J. J.]

Do the terms "0-3 point race" and "weekends" ring a bell to anyone?

do the terms "arrogant" and "broken record" ring a bell to anyone?

I'm not too sure about "arrogant," basically, because I was quoting your post, IIRC, just expanding the margin either way. 

As for "broken record," some skipping, but not entirely broken.  There was a bit of tightening last week, but not sure it's there this week. It might be ranging up to 1-4 or 2-5 points.

[Flying Dog]

Why are the tracking polls showing a closer race than the one-time polls that have Obama up by 6-7%? Which one's should we trust?