Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]
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Author Topic: Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]  (Read 296968 times)
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BRTD
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« Reply #400 on: August 13, 2008, 12:34:53 PM »


What's the big deal? J. J. is wrong. Do you deny that? He got owned by reality, just like he was when he was screaming that Hillary had a chance in JUNE. Do you agree he was delusional about Hillary and is delusional here?
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J. J.
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« Reply #401 on: August 13, 2008, 12:41:21 PM »




Mon 7/28:      Obama +8  (F, Sa, Su)<
Tue 7/29:       Obama +6  (Sa, Su, M)<
Wed 7/30:      Obama +4 (, Su, M, T)<
Thurs: 7/31:   Obama +1 (M, Tu, W)
Fri 8/1:           Tie (Tu,W, Th)
Sat 8/2:           Tie (W, Th, F) <
Sun 8/3:          Obama +1 (Th, F, Sa) <
Mon 8/4:         Obama +3 (F, Sa, Su) <
Tue 8/5:          Obama +4 (Sa, Su, Mo)<
Wed 8/6:         Obama +2 (Su, Mo, Tu)<
Thurs: 8/7:      Obama +3 (Mo, Tu, W)
Fri 8/8:            Obama +3 (Tu, W, Th)
Sat 8/9:            Obama +5 (W, Th, F)<
Sun 8/10:         Obama +3 (Th, F, SA)<
Mon 8/11:        Obama +5 (Sa, Su, M)<

What happens when the weekend number go in, Obama's lead tends to increase.  When the weekend numbers come out, he tends to drop.  An increase of numbers tomorrow for Obama, where there are no weekend numbers, will be significant.  A drop won't.

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Alcon
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« Reply #402 on: August 13, 2008, 12:45:26 PM »

Monday and Tuesday are included in these numbers.  Obama was about +1.5, maybe +2, beforehand.  Let's assume (arbitrarily) that Monday and Tuesday were +1.75 average together.  Obama is +6 today.

The Sunday sample would have to be at least Obama +14 for these numbers to be possible.

I don't think a contraction is unlikely, considering that Obama jumped up two points when the Sunday sample was included.  But, obviously his Monday sample was better than his Saturday   sample.  Does that have meaning?  Probably, but we can't be sure yet.
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BRTD
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« Reply #403 on: August 13, 2008, 12:46:01 PM »




Mon 7/28:      Obama +8  (F, Sa, Su)<
Tue 7/29:       Obama +6  (Sa, Su, M)<
Wed 7/30:      Obama +4 (, Su, M, T)<
Thurs: 7/31:   Obama +1 (M, Tu, W)
Fri 8/1:           Tie (Tu,W, Th)
Sat 8/2:           Tie (W, Th, F) <
Sun 8/3:          Obama +1 (Th, F, Sa) <
Mon 8/4:         Obama +3 (F, Sa, Su) <
Tue 8/5:          Obama +4 (Sa, Su, Mo)<
Wed 8/6:         Obama +2 (Su, Mo, Tu)<
Thurs: 8/7:      Obama +3 (Mo, Tu, W)
Fri 8/8:            Obama +3 (Tu, W, Th)
Sat 8/9:            Obama +5 (W, Th, F)<
Sun 8/10:         Obama +3 (Th, F, SA)<
Mon 8/11:        Obama +5 (Sa, Su, M)<

What happens when the weekend number go in, Obama's lead tends to increase.  When the weekend numbers come out, he tends to drop.  An increase of numbers tomorrow for Obama, where there are no weekend numbers, will be significant.  A drop won't.

And where is McCain leading like you predicted?

You. Got. Owned.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #404 on: August 13, 2008, 12:54:18 PM »


What's the big deal? J. J. is wrong. Do you deny that? He got owned by reality, just like he was when he was screaming that Hillary had a chance in JUNE. Do you agree he was delusional about Hillary and is delusional here?

No, I don't deny it but you ride people to the point where people honestly loathe you. Grow the hell up. You have a very obsessive personality, dude. Seek help.
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BRTD
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« Reply #405 on: August 13, 2008, 12:55:43 PM »


What's the big deal? J. J. is wrong. Do you deny that? He got owned by reality, just like he was when he was screaming that Hillary had a chance in JUNE. Do you agree he was delusional about Hillary and is delusional here?

No, I don't deny it but you ride people to the point where people honestly loathe you. Grow the hell up. You have a very obsessive personality, dude. Seek help.

And so then what about you and the Obama winning Kansas thing?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #406 on: August 13, 2008, 01:03:52 PM »

Looks like there might be a slight move back to Obama of a couple of points this past week, but I'm not 100% sure yet.

I should add that the state polling hasn't shown it yet, but that's usually slightly behind anyways.  Or at least SUSA's stuff hasn't shown it.  If this sign continues much longer, it might be a shadow bounce - wait and see...  Smiley
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #407 on: August 13, 2008, 01:04:08 PM »


What's the big deal? J. J. is wrong. Do you deny that? He got owned by reality, just like he was when he was screaming that Hillary had a chance in JUNE. Do you agree he was delusional about Hillary and is delusional here?

No, I don't deny it but you ride people to the point where people honestly loathe you. Grow the hell up. You have a very obsessive personality, dude. Seek help.

And so then what about you and the Obama winning Kansas thing?

You know that topic about the forum member that's like talking to a brick wall? We have a winner here!

I've said time and time and time again that I haven't been using that against Obama supporters. Others have. Accept that you are wrong with this one and move along.
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RJ
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« Reply #408 on: August 13, 2008, 03:13:31 PM »

What happens when the weekend number go in, Obama's lead tends to increase.  When the weekend numbers come out, he tends to drop.  An increase of numbers tomorrow for Obama, where there are no weekend numbers, will be significant.  A drop won't.

What days of the week(tracking polls being released-wise), should we look for the bump?

Say, by the way Phil anything new numbers wise out of PA concerning those catholic blue collar workers? How are the polls looking there, have htey tighened up in the last few weeks?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #409 on: August 13, 2008, 05:39:07 PM »

Say, by the way Phil anything new numbers wise out of PA concerning those catholic blue collar workers? How are the polls looking there, have htey tighened up in the last few weeks?

Call me out in the thread if you want to be a loud mouth tough guy, ok?

I have zero respect for those who start trouble, insist that they'll get the last word, finally grow up and admit that that way or arguing is immature and leave only to resurface when something goes their way.

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Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
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« Reply #410 on: August 13, 2008, 05:57:55 PM »

Gender Gap Among White Voters Bigger Now Than in 2004 [13 August, 2008]

Obama loses to McCain among white men; ties him among white women

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109456/Gender-Gap-Among-White-Voters-Bigger-Now-Than-2004.aspx

Gender Gap Among Non-Hispanic Whites (2008)

Men: Obama 35%; McCain 55%
Women: Obama 44%; McCain 44%

Men (by education):

High school or less: Obama 37%; McCain 53%
Some college: Obama 30%; McCain 59%
College graduate: Obama 33%; McCain 59%
Postgraduate: Obama 44%; McCain 50%

Women (by education):

High school or less: Obama 39%; McCain 46%
Some college: Obama 42%; McCain 47%
College graduate: Obama 48%; McCain 44%
Postgraduate: Obama 58%; McCain 33%

Aggregate of Gallup Poll Daily Tracking, Aug. 1-11, 2008

Gender Gap Among Non-Hispanic Whites, 2004 Presidential Election

Men: Kerry 40%; Bush 56%
Women: Kerry 42%; Bush 51%

CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, Oct. 29-31, 2004

Dave
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J. J.
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« Reply #411 on: August 13, 2008, 06:19:45 PM »

What happens when the weekend number go in, Obama's lead tends to increase.  When the weekend numbers come out, he tends to drop.  An increase of numbers tomorrow for Obama, where there are no weekend numbers, will be significant.  A drop won't.

What days of the week(tracking polls being released-wise), should we look for the bump?


Numbers that include Friday, Saturday and Sunday tend to be higher for Obama, in Gallup polls.  Polls released, Thursday and Friday, tend to be lower.  You can get lower numbers when you get just one day.  If Obama goes up tomorrow, it probably means he's doing better; if he drops, it's probably just the mid week sample.  If he drops on Sunday, it probably means he's dropped.
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #412 on: August 13, 2008, 06:25:58 PM »

While there has been some notice that summer polls tend to be substandard, the real wacky ones tend to come from August.

So, expect some really strange polls the next couple of weeks.

Oh, how I really miss Mason-Dixon.
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Alcon
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« Reply #413 on: August 13, 2008, 07:02:49 PM »


No kidding.
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RJ
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« Reply #414 on: August 13, 2008, 10:46:17 PM »

Call me out in the thread if you want to be a loud mouth tough guy, ok?

I have zero respect for those who start trouble, insist that they'll get the last word, finally grow up and admit that that way or arguing is immature and leave only to resurface when something goes their way.

Would you like a little cheese with your whine??? By the way, the last thing I would expect you to say is that you have any respect for me or anyone who doesn't wholeheartedly agree with you. The second to last thing I would expect is for you to offer some hard proof of your claim.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #415 on: August 13, 2008, 10:51:30 PM »


Would you like a little cheese with your whine??? By the way, the last thing I would expect you to say is that you have any respect for me or anyone who doesn't wholeheartedly agree with you.

Then you really don't know anything about me or the forum. I may be passionate in debate but I have plenty of people here that are very, very different from me with different views. Get a clue, dude.

 
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And didn't you "prove" that before? Sounds like someone just has a hard on...

By the way, keep telling yourself that "Catholic blue collar workers" aren't a major part of the PA electorate. That comment alone is far more assinine than anything I have ever said.
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RJ
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« Reply #416 on: August 14, 2008, 08:39:27 AM »

I'm going to ask one more time---What is so freakin' difficult about proving what you're saying? I'm not the one making the claim here, you are. I think you also completely missed the basis of what I said before so I'll refresh your memory: What portion of the PA electorate do "catholic blue collar workers" comprise and how much of this portion would have to swing? You can't find the statistics in question or you just won't? You're going to hear about this until you have a better answer than "get a clue" or "that comment is assinine." If it bothers you, too bad.

(insert childish last word/response below)
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Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
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« Reply #417 on: August 14, 2008, 12:07:26 PM »

Thursday, August 14, 2008

Obama - 46% (-2)
McCain - 43% (+1)

These data are based on Aug. 11-13 polling, and reflect a stable period for voter preferences. Since the beginning of August, Obama's support been either 46% or 47% for all but one day of Gallup tracking (48% in Aug. 10-12 polling) and McCain's has been 42% or 43% for all but one day (44% in Aug. 3-5 polling).

Although McCain has continued to campaign in battleground states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania, Obama has been on vacation in Hawaii and the presidential campaign has largely been overshadowed in the news by the Russia-Georgia conflict and the summer Olympics.

The 3-point Obama advantage matches the average in Gallup Poll Daily tracking since he clinched the Democratic nomination in early June.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #418 on: August 14, 2008, 12:11:29 PM »

Encouraging as six-point lead for Obama was yesterday, his numbers can go down as well as up, so spare me the cock-a-hoopedness. Euphoria can, sadly, all too often be followed by pessimism

Dave
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BRTD
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« Reply #419 on: August 14, 2008, 12:19:20 PM »

It's McCain's midweek bounce. The notable thing is that McCain STILL has not taken the lead.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #420 on: August 14, 2008, 01:05:45 PM »
« Edited: August 14, 2008, 01:13:29 PM by Keystone Phil »

I'm going to ask one more time---What is so freakin' difficult about proving what you're saying? I'm not the one making the claim here, you are. I think you also completely missed the basis of what I said before so I'll refresh your memory: What portion of the PA electorate do "catholic blue collar workers" comprise and how much of this portion would have to swing? You can't find the statistics in question or you just won't? You're going to hear about this until you have a better answer than "get a clue" or "that comment is assinine." If it bothers you, too bad.

(insert childish last word/response below)

Insert my childish remark below? Dude, we've been through this before. You have some split personality or something because you definitely gave up on this during our last argument, claiming that you "proved" your point and that you wouldn't be childish and get the last word. So, seriously, you have some thing with me and it's not worth my time.

I don't have to prove that Catholic blue collar workers are a key voting block in Pennsylvania. You're a toolbox if you can't see that on your own. You're just being a douche.
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Umengus
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« Reply #421 on: August 14, 2008, 01:36:05 PM »

this thread is funny. We are still in summer and some people are completely crazy. October will be very hard for them.
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J. J.
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« Reply #422 on: August 14, 2008, 02:41:07 PM »

It's McCain's midweek bounce. The notable thing is that McCain STILL has not taken the lead.

Didn't you just claim McCain would have a midweek bounce?  Or is "li'l Zack the Barack Hack" also a hypocrat.

[It actually is McCain's midweek bounce which I've referring to.  It's nothing to get excited over.  If Obama's numbers show study or go down on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday, open the very cheap champaign (and water it down a bit).]
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #423 on: August 14, 2008, 08:57:55 PM »

It's McCain's midweek bounce. The notable thing is that McCain STILL has not taken the lead.

Didn't you just claim McCain would have a midweek bounce?  Or is "li'l Zack the Barack Hack" also a hypocrat.

Here ya go, BRTD:



Thats for the burn.
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J. J.
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« Reply #424 on: August 14, 2008, 09:37:01 PM »

At this point, it's more a Gallup poll phenomenon than anything important.  Don't get excited of it.
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