Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[J. J.]

this drop is one with a monday replacing a friday, so it really would have zero to do with any sort of weekend issues, I would say.  I just think the race is really close and polls tend to bounce a few points here and there and Sunday must've been quite a bit better than Thursday for Obama, while Monday was better than Friday for McCain... all by only a few points within the margin of error, actually.

I'd prefer to wait until later in the week until declaring this tightening.  If McCain ties or pulls ahead by Saturday, probably.  It's too early.

Obama, all things considered, is underperforming, but that can quickly change.

[J. J.]

Obama 45 (nc)

McCain 43 (-1)

Probably a good sample for McCain that dropped.

this drop is one with a monday replacing a friday, so it really would have zero to do with any sort of weekend issues, I would say.  I just think the race is really close and polls tend to bounce a few points here and there and Sunday must've been quite a bit better than Thursday for Obama, while Monday was better than Friday for McCain... all by only a few points within the margin of error, actually.

Saturday's might have been the high one.

[elcorazon]

Obama 45 (nc)

McCain 43 (-1)

Probably a good sample for McCain that dropped.

this drop is one with a monday replacing a friday, so it really would have zero to do with any sort of weekend issues, I would say.  I just think the race is really close and polls tend to bounce a few points here and there and Sunday must've been quite a bit better than Thursday for Obama, while Monday was better than Friday for McCain... all by only a few points within the margin of error, actually.

Saturday's might have been the high one.

Tomorrow will be all weekdays, so likely McCain moves in front...  could be since 1) Sunday must've been a decent day for Obama and it will drop tomorrow; and 2) Polls seem to show mccain moving ahead nationally right now, so even without a midweek bump, one might think McCain will move ahead tomorrow.

I think if McCain fails to move at least even, this will be evidence against a midweek/weekend bias of some sort.

[Democratic Hawk]

McCain Still Dominant Among the Highly Religious [20 August, 2008]

Key question if strength of McCain's support, turnout

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109678/McCain-Still-Dominant-Among-Highly-Religious.aspx

Support for Presidential Nomination Candidates, by Church Attendance

Weekly: Obama 37%; McCain 53%

Nearly weekly/Monthly: Obama 43%; McCain 47%

Seldom/Never: Obama 54%; McCain 34%

Among Non-Hispanic whites:

Weekly: Obama 25%; McCain 65%

Nearly weekly/Monthly: Obama 34%; McCain 56%

Seldom/Never: Obama 48%; McCain 39%

Support for Presidential Nomination Candidates, by Importance of Religion in Respondent's Lives

Yes, important: Obama 41%; McCain 49%

No, not important: Obama 55%; McCain 33%

Weekly aggregate based on registered voters, Aug. 11-17, 2008

Dave

[J. J.]

August 22, 2008

Obama:  45 (nc)

McCain:  44 (+1)

[J. J.]

Obama 45 (nc)

McCain 43 (-1)

Probably a good sample for McCain that dropped.

this drop is one with a monday replacing a friday, so it really would have zero to do with any sort of weekend issues, I would say.  I just think the race is really close and polls tend to bounce a few points here and there and Sunday must've been quite a bit better than Thursday for Obama, while Monday was better than Friday for McCain... all by only a few points within the margin of error, actually.

Saturday's might have been the high one.

Tomorrow will be all weekdays, so likely McCain moves in front...  could be since 1) Sunday must've been a decent day for Obama and it will drop tomorrow; and 2) Polls seem to show mccain moving ahead nationally right now, so even without a midweek bump, one might think McCain will move ahead tomorrow.

I think if McCain fails to move at least even, this will be evidence against a midweek/weekend bias of some sort.

He stayed behind, but I wouldn't rule out a further bump/slump.  I'd call it a tight race, but Obama still ahead.

[J. J.]

I must note the irony where elcorazon thinks the race is going a bit better for McCain than I do. 

[elcorazon]

I think the race is pretty damn even right now.

I think McCain has a good chance to pull ahead in time for election day.

I think the midweek bounce was a decent hypothesis that likely doesn't exist.

I think Walter Mitty is a useless waste of human flesh.

[J. J.]

I think the race is pretty damn even right now.

I think McCain has a good chance to pull ahead in time for election day.

I think the midweek bounce was a decent hypothesis that likely doesn't exist.

I think Walter Mitty is a useless waste of human flesh.

I think it is very close, perhaps a bit closer than even late July; it has gotten closer than June.

I think there is a good chance of this being a close election into the Fall.

I think we will even see a boost for Obama even before the announcement.

I think Opebo is a complete waste of human flesh, except as a subject for testing STD drugs.

[Democratic Hawk]

The Marriage Gap in Support for McCain, Obama [21 August, 2008]

Marriage gap reflects underlying differences in composition of the parties

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109741/Marriage-Gap-Support-McCain-Obama.aspx

Preference for the General Election, by Marital Status

Married: Obama 38%; McCain 51%

Unmarried: Obama 55%; McCain 33%

By Gender and Marital Status:

Married men: Obama 35%; McCain 56%
Unmarried men: Obama 52%; McCain 37%
Married women: Obama 42%; McCain 46%
Unmarried women: Obama 57%; McCain 30%

By Marital Status and Age:

18 to 34 married: Obama 43%; McCain 47%
18 to 34 unmarried: Obama 63%; McCain 27%
35 to 54 married: Obama 38%; McCain 52%
35 to 54 unmarried: Obama 56%; McCain 33%
55+ married: Obama 36%; McCain 52%
55+ unmarried: Obama 48%; McCain 38%

Marital Status by Political Party

Republicans: Married 64%; Unmarried 36%
Independents: Married 50%; Unmarried 50%
Democrats: Married 44%; Unmarried 55%

Gallup Poll Daily tracking, Aug. 1-19, 2008

Dave

[J. J.]

August 22, 2008

Obama:  45 (nc)

McCain:  44 (nc)


Absolutely static.

[elcorazon]

August 22, 2008

Obama:  45 (nc)

McCain:  44 (nc)


Absolutely static.

at least until Obama gets his weekend bump.  that should start with tomorrow's numbers and continue building thru Monday's, then Tues thru thurs should turn down again, right?  although I guess the veep/convention could change things, huh?

[J. J.]

The race has tightened since early July, which is NOT good news for Obama.  However, Obama still maintains a lead of probably 1-3 points.

[J. J.]

August 22, 2008

Obama:  45 (nc)

McCain:  44 (nc)


Absolutely static.

at least until Obama gets his weekend bump.  that should start with tomorrow's numbers and continue building thru Monday's, then Tues thru thurs should turn down again, right?  although I guess the veep/convention could change things, huh?

The Veep announcement/convention should make a difference; I think it's been overhyped at this point.  There is still long term erosion in Obama's positioning, not huge, but enough.  The convention bounce will be interesting, as will McCain's Veep announcement.

[Democratic Hawk]

Saturday - August 23, 2008[/u]

Obama - 46% (+1)
McCain - 44% (nc)

Today's result, based on Aug. 20-22 interviewing, represents the last Gallup Poll Daily tracking update on the presidential race based on interviewing conducted entirely before Obama's selection of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden to be his running mate was announced early this morning.

The full immediate impact of that decision on voters will not be reflected in Gallup's continuous three-day rolling average results until Tuesday, however it will start to enter the data in Sunday's report. A recent analysis of the impact of past vice-presidential selections on voter preferences by Gallup Poll Managing Editor Jeff Jones, suggests a small but short-lived bounce can generally be expected.

Obama has not held a statistically significant lead over McCain in any Gallup Poll Daily tracking report since Aug. 13 -- or 10 reporting days. This is the longest stretch with Obama leading by no more than three percentage points since before Obama clinched the Democratic nomination in early June.

While Obama would clearly hope the publicity from the upcoming Democratic National Convention will help him break out of the present deadlock -- and historical poll trends show a five point bounce in support for a presidential candidate is typical after each nominating convention -- the fact that neither presidential candidate in the 2004 election received a significant convention bounce puts a question mark over the inevitability of that happening in 2008.

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama Lags in Democratic Support [22 August, 2008]

Democrats' lead on party ID greater than Obama's lead over McCain

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109774/Obama-Lags-Democratic-Support.aspx

Dave

[J. J.]

Saturday, August 23, 2008

Obama:  46 (+1)

McCain:  44 (nc)

[Sam Spade]

Sunday - August 24, 2008

Obama - 45% (-1)
McCain - 45% (+1)

bumping around...

[Torie]

Sunday - August 24, 2008

Obama - 45% (-1)
McCain - 45% (+1)

bumping around...

This doesn't pick up the Biden thing does it?  Is it a rolling 3 day poll?

[Gustaf]

Sunday - August 24, 2008

Obama - 45% (-1)
McCain - 45% (+1)

bumping around...

This doesn't pick up the Biden thing does it?  Is it a rolling 3 day poll?

I think this one includes Saturday and since the calls are made in the evening it should, theoretically? If so, fail for Biden, he made Obama lose a point.

[agcatter]

Bounces don't occur the day of an event.  It wasn't until 3 or 4 days into the Obama world tour did the bounce start to show up.

In any event, it's a temporary bounce. 

[J. J.]

Sunday - August 24, 2008

Obama - 45% (-1)
McCain - 45% (+1)

bumping around...

Okay, either this was a really bad sample for Obama, or there is a problem.

[Rowan]

Negative bounce is coming for not picking Hillary.

[War on Want]

Sunday - August 24, 2008

Obama - 45% (-1)
McCain - 45% (+1)

bumping around...

Okay, either this was a really bad sample for Obama, or there is a problem.

really bad sample, that is a few days old.

[J. J.]

Negative bounce is coming for not picking Hillary.

No bounce or slump yet.