Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[J. J.]

Sunday - August 24, 2008

Obama - 45% (-1)
McCain - 45% (+1)

bumping around...

Okay, either this was a really bad sample for Obama, or there is a problem.

really bad sample, that is a few days old.

Saturday's sample is in the mix.

[War on Want]

Sunday - August 24, 2008

Obama - 45% (-1)
McCain - 45% (+1)

bumping around...

Okay, either this was a really bad sample for Obama, or there is a problem.

really bad sample, that is a few days old.

Saturday's sample is in the mix.

Exactly, besides a huge bump is not coming from Obama picking Biden just a 2-3 point one.

[J. J.]

Sunday - August 24, 2008

Obama - 45% (-1)
McCain - 45% (+1)

bumping around...

Okay, either this was a really bad sample for Obama, or there is a problem.

really bad sample, that is a few days old.

Saturday's sample is in the mix.

Exactly, besides a huge bump is not coming from Obama picking Biden just a 2-3 point one.

There should have been a bump, but it includes yesterday's numbers.  There should have been an increase.

[Eraserhead]

There isn't going be any short-term bounce from picking Biden. Most people don't have a clue as to who he is.

[J. J.]

There isn't going be any short-term bounce from picking Biden. Most people don't have a clue as to who he is.

I was thinking more of the weekend bounce.

[Lunar]

What time of day are the polls conducted for Gallup?

[J. J.]

What time of day are the polls conducted for Gallup?

That I don't know.  I'd guess early evening, because that's when they generally call me.

[Sam Spade]

Be patient, folks. 

The only problem is that the VP bounce may be confused as a during-the-convention bounce, which may leave the convention bounce lower than anticipated.  I think the Obama people were trying to create duplicate bounces that the media would report as one, but I think they needed to name the VP on Thursday to make that possible.

[Democratic Hawk]

Monday - August 25, 2008

Obama - 45% (-)
McCain - 45% (-)

The latest update includes two days of interviewing following Obama's selection of Sen. Joe Biden as his vice presidential running mate, and neither day showed an improved performance for Obama. Thus, Obama does not appear to have gotten the same type of immediate "vice presidential bounce" as have presidential candidates in recent years. That could reflect a somewhat muted national response to the Biden selection, or competition for the nation's attention with the Olympics. (The candidates who got vice presidential bounces in 1996, 2000, and 2004 announced their choices before or after the Olympics took place in those years.)

In fact, today's results, using Aug. 22-24 interviews, show both candidates getting precisely the same number of votes when more than 2,600 national registered voters were asked who they would vote for "if the presidential election were held today."

The race has clearly tightened over the past two weeks, after Obama held a modest advantage (averaging three percentage points) from the time he clinched the Democratic presidential nomination in early June through mid-August.

[Democratic Hawk]

Negative bounce is coming for not picking Hillary.

Did any one ever, seriously, expect Obama would pick Hillary?

Dave

[agcatter]

VP selection is not going to give either candidate a bounce.  It's the convention this week that will give Obama a bounce and we won't see any of that until the middle or late part of the week - but he will get a bounce.

[J. J.]

Obama's lost the weekend bounce as well.   He's weakening.

[elcorazon]

Obama's lost the weekend bounce as well.   He's weakening.

possibly.  or mccain's lost the weekday bounce.  or there never really was one.  or this is a bad sample. or it's summer...  you get the idea.

[J. J.]

Obama's lost the weekend bounce as well.   He's weakening.

possibly.  or mccain's lost the weekday bounce.  or there never really was one.  or this is a bad sample. or it's summer...  you get the idea.

No, that's why I was waiting a few days to see if the "bad sample" dropped out.  It's probably a dead heat or a slight McCain lead (less than 0.5% at best).  For all practical purposes, Obama walked into the Convention tied.  That's been about 6-8 weeks of erosion. 

[elcorazon]

Obama's lost the weekend bounce as well.   He's weakening.

possibly.  or mccain's lost the weekday bounce.  or there never really was one.  or this is a bad sample. or it's summer...  you get the idea.

No, that's why I was waiting a few days to see if the "bad sample" dropped out.  It's probably a dead heat or a slight McCain lead (less than 0.5% at best).  For all practical purposes, Obama walked into the Convention tied.  That's been about 6-8 weeks of erosion. 

I agree it's really close right now, BUT, I'm not sure how you can surmise McCain is the one who MIGHT be ahead.  I mean, in the last 10 days+, it's either been tied or Obama's been ahead consistently.  And Obama's been more likely to be ahead in other polls as well, both tracking and otherwise.

I'd put the race at even - Obama +1.5% or so, right now, going into the convention.

The best obama can hope for I'd say, is to come out of the convention  +5-6%, and to not lose it all by the end of the republican convention.  way to soon to start guessing at that though.

[J. J.]

Obama's lost the weekend bounce as well.   He's weakening.

possibly.  or mccain's lost the weekday bounce.  or there never really was one.  or this is a bad sample. or it's summer...  you get the idea.

No, that's why I was waiting a few days to see if the "bad sample" dropped out.  It's probably a dead heat or a slight McCain lead (less than 0.5% at best).  For all practical purposes, Obama walked into the Convention tied.  That's been about 6-8 weeks of erosion. 

I agree it's really close right now, BUT, I'm not sure how you can surmise McCain is the one who MIGHT be ahead.  I mean, in the last 10 days+, it's either been tied or Obama's been ahead consistently.  And Obama's been more likely to be ahead in other polls as well, both tracking and otherwise.

I'd put the race at even - Obama +1.5% or so, right now, going into the convention.

The best obama can hope for I'd say, is to come out of the convention  +5-6%, and to not lose it all by the end of the republican convention.  way to soon to start guessing at that though.

I give a very slight Bradley Effect (less than 1%), but poresent.  I also realize that Obama does  temd to do better on weekends, yet he's still slumping, holding.  I think, out there in the ether, it is a possibly a slight lead for McCain (very slight).

[Sam Spade]

Surprised the Republicans haven't jumped on this one quicker...

Tuesday, August 26, 2008
McCain 46 (+1)
Obama 44 (-1)

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109834/Gallup-Daily-Bounce-Obama-Post-Biden-Tracking.aspx
Hard to tell yet, and it'll get muddled up in convention noise, but there may have been a negative bounce from the Biden pick.  damn nomo types...

[Bay Ridge, Bklyn! Born and Bred]

Negative bounce for Obama in picking the plagarizer as his running mate.   

This is what happens when you allow the DU/Moveon.org moonbats dictate your running mate.  "1st and 3rd most liberal members of the senate"

Same thing happened in 2004.   Ouch!

[Sam Spade]

Negative bounce for Obama in picking the plagarizer as his running mate.   

This is what happens when you allow the DU/Moveon.org moonbats dictate your running mate.  "1st and 3rd most liberal members of the senate"

Same thing happened in 2004.   Ouch!

Except there was no negative bounce then.  I think a different dynamic may be at work.

[Tender Branson]

Strange. That's all I can say ...

[Sam Spade]

Strange. That's all I can say ...

Probably has to do with a four-letter word that starts with a "P", if it is really occurring. 

Be patient though.

[Bay Ridge, Bklyn! Born and Bred]

Perhaps it was the amazingly idiotic way they managed the txt message roll-out of the plagarizer as Obama's running mate.  Waiting all friggin week for a cell text that arrived on 3am Saturday morning, and when the story was already broken that it was someone who never worked for a living and instead spent 35 years in the senate.

That had to piss a few people off.   lol

[J. J.]

Surprised the Republicans haven't jumped on this one quicker...

Tuesday, August 26, 2008
McCain 46 (+1)
Obama 44 (-1)

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109834/Gallup-Daily-Bounce-Obama-Post-Biden-Tracking.aspx
Hard to tell yet, and it'll get muddled up in convention noise, but there may have been a negative bounce from the Biden pick.  damn nomo types...

I don't think Biden hurt, but it didn't help, nationally.

There should be a convention bounce by this time next week.  If there isn't, Obama has a problem.

[Wiz in Wis]

Surprised the Republicans haven't jumped on this one quicker...

Tuesday, August 26, 2008
McCain 46 (+1)
Obama 44 (-1)

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109834/Gallup-Daily-Bounce-Obama-Post-Biden-Tracking.aspx
Hard to tell yet, and it'll get muddled up in convention noise, but there may have been a negative bounce from the Biden pick.  damn nomo types...

I don't think Biden hurt, but it didn't help, nationally.

There should be a convention bounce by this time next week.  If there isn't, Obama has a problem.

Agreed, but at the same time, none of this sample is even from the convention... the Monday numbers were undoubtedly called before Michelle or even Kennedy's speeches... We'll see though

[J. J.]

Obama's lost the weekend bounce as well.   He's weakening.

possibly.  or mccain's lost the weekday bounce.  or there never really was one.  or this is a bad sample. or it's summer...  you get the idea.

No, that's why I was waiting a few days to see if the "bad sample" dropped out.  It's probably a dead heat or a slight McCain lead (less than 0.5% at best).  For all practical purposes, Obama walked into the Convention tied.  That's been about 6-8 weeks of erosion. 

I agree it's really close right now, BUT, I'm not sure how you can surmise McCain is the one who MIGHT be ahead.  I mean, in the last 10 days+, it's either been tied or Obama's been ahead consistently.  And Obama's been more likely to be ahead in other polls as well, both tracking and otherwise.

I'd put the race at even - Obama +1.5% or so, right now, going into the convention.

The best obama can hope for I'd say, is to come out of the convention  +5-6%, and to not lose it all by the end of the republican convention.  way to soon to start guessing at that though.

I give a very slight Bradley Effect (less than 1%), but poresent.  I also realize that Obama does  temd to do better on weekends, yet he's still slumping, holding.  I think, out there in the ether, it is a possibly a slight lead for McCain (very slight).

I seem to have been correct.