Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Wiz in Wis]

Obama's lost the weekend bounce as well.   He's weakening.

possibly.  or mccain's lost the weekday bounce.  or there never really was one.  or this is a bad sample. or it's summer...  you get the idea.

No, that's why I was waiting a few days to see if the "bad sample" dropped out.  It's probably a dead heat or a slight McCain lead (less than 0.5% at best).  For all practical purposes, Obama walked into the Convention tied.  That's been about 6-8 weeks of erosion. 

I agree it's really close right now, BUT, I'm not sure how you can surmise McCain is the one who MIGHT be ahead.  I mean, in the last 10 days+, it's either been tied or Obama's been ahead consistently.  And Obama's been more likely to be ahead in other polls as well, both tracking and otherwise.

I'd put the race at even - Obama +1.5% or so, right now, going into the convention.

The best obama can hope for I'd say, is to come out of the convention  +5-6%, and to not lose it all by the end of the republican convention.  way to soon to start guessing at that though.

I give a very slight Bradley Effect (less than 1%), but poresent.  I also realize that Obama does  temd to do better on weekends, yet he's still slumping, holding.  I think, out there in the ether, it is a possibly a slight lead for McCain (very slight).

I seem to have been correct.

The race has undoubtedly tightened, but only a few points. Obama never lead by more than an average of 5 or so, so being tied is not a collapse so much as a minor regression. I'll be more worried when Obama starts losing in blue states.

[J. J.]

Obama's lost the weekend bounce as well.   He's weakening.

possibly.  or mccain's lost the weekday bounce.  or there never really was one.  or this is a bad sample. or it's summer...  you get the idea.

No, that's why I was waiting a few days to see if the "bad sample" dropped out.  It's probably a dead heat or a slight McCain lead (less than 0.5% at best).  For all practical purposes, Obama walked into the Convention tied.  That's been about 6-8 weeks of erosion. 

I agree it's really close right now, BUT, I'm not sure how you can surmise McCain is the one who MIGHT be ahead.  I mean, in the last 10 days+, it's either been tied or Obama's been ahead consistently.  And Obama's been more likely to be ahead in other polls as well, both tracking and otherwise.

I'd put the race at even - Obama +1.5% or so, right now, going into the convention.

The best obama can hope for I'd say, is to come out of the convention  +5-6%, and to not lose it all by the end of the republican convention.  way to soon to start guessing at that though.

I give a very slight Bradley Effect (less than 1%), but poresent.  I also realize that Obama does  temd to do better on weekends, yet he's still slumping, holding.  I think, out there in the ether, it is a possibly a slight lead for McCain (very slight).

I seem to have been correct.

The race has undoubtedly tightened, but only a few points. Obama never lead by more than an average of 5 or so, so being tied is not a collapse so much as a minor regression. I'll be more worried when Obama starts losing in blue states.

Wiz, I do not understand how you can go from "a slight lead for McCain (very slight)" to suggesting that I said a complete collapse.  I'd only be worried/happy if there was a McCain lead this time next week.

[elcorazon]

Obama's lost the weekend bounce as well.   He's weakening.

possibly.  or mccain's lost the weekday bounce.  or there never really was one.  or this is a bad sample. or it's summer...  you get the idea.

No, that's why I was waiting a few days to see if the "bad sample" dropped out.  It's probably a dead heat or a slight McCain lead (less than 0.5% at best).  For all practical purposes, Obama walked into the Convention tied.  That's been about 6-8 weeks of erosion. 

I agree it's really close right now, BUT, I'm not sure how you can surmise McCain is the one who MIGHT be ahead.  I mean, in the last 10 days+, it's either been tied or Obama's been ahead consistently.  And Obama's been more likely to be ahead in other polls as well, both tracking and otherwise.

I'd put the race at even - Obama +1.5% or so, right now, going into the convention.

The best obama can hope for I'd say, is to come out of the convention  +5-6%, and to not lose it all by the end of the republican convention.  way to soon to start guessing at that though.

I give a very slight Bradley Effect (less than 1%), but poresent.  I also realize that Obama does  temd to do better on weekends, yet he's still slumping, holding.  I think, out there in the ether, it is a possibly a slight lead for McCain (very slight).

I seem to have been correct.

based on one poll showing mccain in front.  Let's wait a few days and see if that lead holds up... or are you willing to use this day's tracking poll as the standard for judging whatever convention "bounce" might occur?

[agcatter]

Yep, PUMA.

I suspect Obama will be up 6 or 7 by Monday.  Wall to wall lovefest in Denver plus another "tingle" speech in front of 75K cultists chanting the messiah's name and giving the O sign.  Nurenburg all over again.

[elcorazon]

Yep, PUMA.

I suspect Obama will be up 6 or 7 by Monday.  Wall to wall lovefest in Denver plus another "tingle" speech in front of 75K cultists chanting the messiah's name and giving the O sign.  Nurenburg all over again.

but the elitism that will be oozing from the convention is bound to cost him a couple of points.  I predict that by next Monday Obama's up no more than 1-2%

[J. J.]

Obama's lost the weekend bounce as well.   He's weakening.

possibly.  or mccain's lost the weekday bounce.  or there never really was one.  or this is a bad sample. or it's summer...  you get the idea.

No, that's why I was waiting a few days to see if the "bad sample" dropped out.  It's probably a dead heat or a slight McCain lead (less than 0.5% at best).  For all practical purposes, Obama walked into the Convention tied.  That's been about 6-8 weeks of erosion. 

I agree it's really close right now, BUT, I'm not sure how you can surmise McCain is the one who MIGHT be ahead.  I mean, in the last 10 days+, it's either been tied or Obama's been ahead consistently.  And Obama's been more likely to be ahead in other polls as well, both tracking and otherwise.

I'd put the race at even - Obama +1.5% or so, right now, going into the convention.

The best obama can hope for I'd say, is to come out of the convention  +5-6%, and to not lose it all by the end of the republican convention.  way to soon to start guessing at that though.

I give a very slight Bradley Effect (less than 1%), but poresent.  I also realize that Obama does  temd to do better on weekends, yet he's still slumping, holding.  I think, out there in the ether, it is a possibly a slight lead for McCain (very slight).

I seem to have been correct.

based on one poll showing mccain in front.  Let's wait a few days and see if that lead holds up... or are you willing to use this day's tracking poll as the standard for judging whatever convention "bounce" might occur?

It clearly tightened and Obama should have done better over the weekend.

I basically think it is a dead heat, possibly with McCain a fractional point ahead, maybe.  If McCain really is ahead, it won't be enough to consistenly register in the polls, even without a post convention bump.  I fully expect that next week, Obama will be in the lead.

[J. J.]

Yep, PUMA.

I suspect Obama will be up 6 or 7 by Monday.  Wall to wall lovefest in Denver plus another "tingle" speech in front of 75K cultists chanting the messiah's name and giving the O sign.  Nurenburg all over again.

but the elitism that will be oozing from the convention is bound to cost him a couple of points.  I predict that by next Monday Obama's up no more than 1-2%

I'd expect 3-4 points; I think if it's 1-2, Obama has big problems.

[Brittain33]

Wednesday, August 27

Obama 45% (+1)
McCain 44% (-2)

[J. J.]

Wednesday, August 27

Obama 45% (+1)
McCain 44% (-2)

OK, that one makes some sense.

[Tender Branson]

Dang !!!

Thursday - August 28, 2008:

Obama 48% (+3)
McCain 42% (-2)

[exopolitician]

Dang !!!

Thursday - August 28, 2008:

Obama 48% (+3)
McCain 42% (-2)

Oh...well...hi.

[Sam Spade]

not surprising, actually.  

[afleitch]

That's better. It will dip next week of course. This race won't be decided for some while yet but McCain will slow and tire.

[Brittain33]

Time to short Pawlenty and buy Lieberman... McCain's volatility index went way up.

[Democratic Hawk]

Dang !!!

Thursday - August 28, 2008:

Obama 48% (+3)
McCain 42% (-2)

The latest three-day Gallup Poll Daily tracking average (Aug. 25-27) is directly coincident with the first three days of the Democratic National Convention in Denver, and is no doubt beginning to reflect the typical convention "bounce" that Gallup has observed in most party conventions in recent decades. There is a lag of sorts involved in the daily tracking; interviewing is conducted in most parts of the country before that evening's high-focus speeches have taken place. Thus, the current three-day average would reflect any impact of Monday night's speech by Michelle Obama, and Tuesday night's speech by Hillary Clinton, but would not completely reflect Wednesday night's lineup of speakers, such as John Kerry, former President Bill Clinton, and vice presidential nominee Joe Biden, nor the appearance on stage at the end of the evening by Barack Obama himself.

Gallup's interviewing for last Friday through Sunday, the last three days before the convention officially began, showed the race at a 45% to 45% tie. Thus, there is already a six percentage point bounce evident in the data, although the final "official" post-convention bounce used in comparison with other recent conventions will not be tabulated by Gallup until interviewing for Friday through Sunday is completed (reported next Monday on gallup.com).

Of keen interest this year will be the dynamics of the race in the forthcoming days, as John McCain, by all accounts, will attempt to pounce on the Democrats' bounce by announcing his vice presidential running mate either Thursday night or Friday and with attention turning quickly to the Republican convention that is set to begin on Monday in St. Paul. Also in the mix this year will be an act of nature; if Tropical Storm Gustav becomes a hurricane and makes landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast sometime on Tuesday, news coverage of the GOP convention will be diluted, and the impact of that situation (coming some three years after Hurricane Katrina) is impossible to predict.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I think this is a plateau that is going to form for Obama that is not going to really go down at all.  After his speech, he'll go up to about +8, +9 in the tracking polls, back down to +3,+4 after the GOP convention, wind up gaining a couple points in the debate, and win by 6 on election night. 

Why do I believe this?  Because this election is ALL about Obama.  Whether you love him, hate him, not ready to vote for him, kinda want to vote for him.... etc. etc.  McCain is about as important to this election as Kerry was in 2004.  It's safe choice (McCain) vs. risk (Obama)... in a year when Americans will take a risk. 

[Josh/Devilman88]

 

[Vsanto5]

If this is somehow an indication of undecided voters deciding a candidate it could prove lethal for McSame.  Plus the hurricane is going to sway some viewers from watching the RNC especially Florida voters. 

[Verily]

If this is somehow an indication of undecided voters deciding a candidate it could prove lethal for McSame.  Plus the hurricane is going to sway some viewers from watching the RNC especially Florida voters. 

Not Florida voters. Gustav isn't going anywhere near Florida. It's New Orleans and Houston that are anxious. TS Hanna could affect Florida, but, if it does, that won't be until after the convention.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Dang !!!

Thursday - August 28, 2008:

Obama 48% (+3)
McCain 42% (-2)

Cool

[Vsanto5]

I forgot that Florida voters are completely unaffected by Hurricanes unless its barreling their way. LOL

But I know people there really dont
get fazed as much by hurricanes as in Texas. We get like freaked out by such phenomenon.

[J. J.]

Actually, it might hit Western FL.

Now, finially, there is the convention bounce.  The highest day should be Monday.

[Wiz in Wis]

You know, at least in some ways, Having a Hurricane during McCain's convention could be more damaging than anything Obama could hit him with... Even if it just diverts some coverage.

Symbolism is a powerful thing.

[J. J.]

You know, at least in some ways, Having a Hurricane during McCain's convention could be more damaging than anything Obama could hit him with... Even if it just diverts some coverage.

Symbolism is a powerful thing.

Praying for victims can help.  Yes, I'm a cynic.

[Alcon]

You know, at least in some ways, Having a Hurricane during McCain's convention could be more damaging than anything Obama could hit him with... Even if it just diverts some coverage.

Symbolism is a powerful thing.

Praying for victims can help.  Yes, I'm a cynic.

Praying for victims during the convention?