Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]
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  Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]
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Author Topic: Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]  (Read 297001 times)
CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #75 on: June 24, 2008, 12:54:47 PM »

Obama Has Edge on Key Election Issues [June 24, 2008]

Better positioned than McCain on top two issues - gas prices and the economy

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108331/Obama-Has-Edge-Key-Election-Issues.aspx

If you had to choose, who do you think would do a better job on [issue]. [ROTATED]?

Healthcare (41%)*: Obama 51%; McCain 26%
The economy (49%): Obama 48%; McCain 32%
Energy, including gas prices (51%): Obama 47%; McCain 28%
Taxes (34%): Obama 44%; McCain 35%
The situation in Iraq (44%): Obama 43%; McCain 43%
Moral values (34%): Obama 40%; McCain 39%
Illegal immigration (27%): Obama 34%; McCain 36%
Terrorism (41%): Obama 33%; McCain 52%

* % citing issue as being extremely important in influencing their vote

USA Today/Gallup, June 15-19, 2008

Dave

On "Illegal Immigration," 19% say "neither," which is both higher than any of the others, and more than half that of either candidate.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #76 on: June 24, 2008, 02:30:30 PM »

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Er... wow.
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Umengus
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« Reply #77 on: June 24, 2008, 03:25:41 PM »

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Er... wow.

lol I can't believe that. Fake poll ("air connu").
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Alcon
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« Reply #78 on: June 24, 2008, 03:36:51 PM »

lol I can't believe that. Fake poll ("air connu").

Gallup's long-established national tracking poll is a "fake poll" based on a 34% subsample that you intuitively feel is wrong?  Or is this a joke?  Tongue
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ottermax
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« Reply #79 on: June 24, 2008, 06:04:24 PM »

Taxes and Iraq surprise me. I think the moral values should be closer than Bush-Kerry, considering that McCain isn't really pushing his Christian values, but these numbers are wrong.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #80 on: June 24, 2008, 11:49:14 PM »
« Edited: June 26, 2008, 03:02:27 PM by Eraserhead »

McCain is more competetive on the Iraq issue than he has any right to be.
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Umengus
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« Reply #81 on: June 25, 2008, 03:44:42 AM »

lol I can't believe that. Fake poll ("air connu").

Gallup's long-established national tracking poll is a "fake poll" based on a 34% subsample that you intuitively feel is wrong?  Or is this a joke?  Tongue

Gallup did crazy in 2004. Completely off. Hence, I'm cautious with this firm.
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Alcon
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« Reply #82 on: June 25, 2008, 09:25:33 AM »

lol I can't believe that. Fake poll ("air connu").

Gallup's long-established national tracking poll is a "fake poll" based on a 34% subsample that you intuitively feel is wrong?  Or is this a joke?  Tongue

Gallup did crazy in 2004. Completely off. Hence, I'm cautious with this firm.

On the state level, not their tracking poll, I thought.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #83 on: June 25, 2008, 09:34:14 AM »

lol I can't believe that. Fake poll ("air connu").

Gallup's long-established national tracking poll is a "fake poll" based on a 34% subsample that you intuitively feel is wrong?  Or is this a joke?  Tongue

Gallup did crazy in 2004. Completely off. Hence, I'm cautious with this firm.

On the state level, not their tracking poll, I thought.

Gallup didn't do a tracking poll in 2004 after the 2000 disaster (which has been corrected for now, as far as I can tell).

Their final poll would have been directly had they not allocated the undecideds as follows:

Actual Poll
Bush 49, Kerry 47, Nader 1

After Undecided Allocation
Bush 49, Kerry 49 (+2), Nader 2 (+1)

Frank Newport must have been on crack when he made that move.  Break them evenly!
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #84 on: June 25, 2008, 12:57:32 PM »

in the form of hawk...

Wednesday 25 June, 2008

Obama - 45% (-1)
McCain - 45% (+2)

Based on the language in the release, I suspect that it's just a strong McCain sample.  Time will tell...
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Alcon
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« Reply #85 on: June 25, 2008, 12:58:26 PM »

I had a sneaking suspicion you'd be unable to resist posting this, Sam.  Wink
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #86 on: June 25, 2008, 12:59:23 PM »

I had a sneaking suspicion you'd be unable to resist posting this, Sam.  Wink

I had a sneaking suspicion that no one else would want to.  Wink

(its been up for about 30 minutes, at least)
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Alcon
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« Reply #87 on: June 25, 2008, 01:02:47 PM »

(its been up for about 30 minutes, at least)

I was on my way to!  Some of us don't subscribe to the damn Gallup RSS feed.  Tongue
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #88 on: June 25, 2008, 01:05:25 PM »

(its been up for about 30 minutes, at least)

I was on my way to!  Some of us don't subscribe to the damn Gallup RSS feed.  Tongue

I subscribe to the RSS feed? - that's news to me.  I'm too cheap to subscribe to anything except for this site.  I do know it was posted to RCP over 30 minutes ago - that's what I was reading it from.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #89 on: June 25, 2008, 01:22:33 PM »

Utah and California are canceling each other out.
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Alcon
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« Reply #90 on: June 25, 2008, 01:24:02 PM »

(its been up for about 30 minutes, at least)

I was on my way to!  Some of us don't subscribe to the damn Gallup RSS feed.  Tongue

I subscribe to the RSS feed? - that's news to me.  I'm too cheap to subscribe to anything except for this site.  I do know it was posted to RCP over 30 minutes ago - that's what I was reading it from.

An RSS feed is a free format, and Gallup doesn't actually use it.  I was being playful, but apparently that don't come across Smiley
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Umengus
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« Reply #91 on: June 25, 2008, 01:34:11 PM »

lol I can't believe that. Fake poll ("air connu").

Gallup's long-established national tracking poll is a "fake poll" based on a 34% subsample that you intuitively feel is wrong?  Or is this a joke?  Tongue



Gallup did crazy in 2004. Completely off. Hence, I'm cautious with this firm.

On the state level, not their tracking poll, I thought.

Gallup didn't do a tracking poll in 2004 after the 2000 disaster (which has been corrected for now, as far as I can tell).

Their final poll would have been directly had they not allocated the undecideds as follows:

Actual Poll
Bush 49, Kerry 47, Nader 1

After Undecided Allocation
Bush 49, Kerry 49 (+2), Nader 2 (+1)

Frank Newport must have been on crack when he made that move.  Break them evenly!

Problem is not really their last result which was not so horrible. The problem is their polls during the campaign. Very erratic. Fake bounce. etc (The biggest problem was the bad composition of their sample)

Maybe that, like Rasmussen in 2004, Gallup has improved his way to poll the country. Their tracking poll seems not bad. But I stay cautious, especially in summer.
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J. J.
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« Reply #92 on: June 25, 2008, 01:39:49 PM »

It just might be an overly McCain sample.

How soon will that day's sample drop out of the average?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #93 on: June 25, 2008, 01:55:30 PM »

lol I can't believe that. Fake poll ("air connu").

Gallup's long-established national tracking poll is a "fake poll" based on a 34% subsample that you intuitively feel is wrong?  Or is this a joke?  Tongue



Gallup did crazy in 2004. Completely off. Hence, I'm cautious with this firm.

On the state level, not their tracking poll, I thought.

Gallup didn't do a tracking poll in 2004 after the 2000 disaster (which has been corrected for now, as far as I can tell).

Their final poll would have been directly had they not allocated the undecideds as follows:

Actual Poll
Bush 49, Kerry 47, Nader 1

After Undecided Allocation
Bush 49, Kerry 49 (+2), Nader 2 (+1)

Frank Newport must have been on crack when he made that move.  Break them evenly!

Problem is not really their last result which was not so horrible. The problem is their polls during the campaign. Very erratic. Fake bounce. etc (The biggest problem was the bad composition of their sample)

Maybe that, like Rasmussen in 2004, Gallup has improved his way to poll the country. Their tracking poll seems not bad. But I stay cautious, especially in summer.

That's the way Gallup's original poll is (not the tracking poll).  It's supposed to be doing that before the election.
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King
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« Reply #94 on: June 25, 2008, 05:09:14 PM »

in the form of hawk...

Wednesday 25 June, 2008

Obama - 45% (-1)
McCain - 45% (+2)

Based on the language in the release, I suspect that it's just a strong McCain sample.  Time will tell...

The WalterMitty bump is starting to show.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #95 on: June 25, 2008, 05:43:01 PM »

McCain vs. Obama as Commander in Chief [June 25, 2008]

McCain gets high marks, but Obama passes 50% threshold

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108373/McCain-vs-Obama-Commander-Chief.aspx

Do you think [John McCain/Barack Obama -- can -- or cannot -- handle the responsibilities of commander in chief of the military?

John McCain: 80% Yes, can; 17% No, can't
Barack Obama: 55% Yes can; 40% No, can't

USA Today/Gallup, June 15-19, 2008

Dave
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #96 on: June 26, 2008, 01:11:54 AM »

in the form of hawk...

Wednesday 25 June, 2008

Obama - 45% (-1)
McCain - 45% (+2)

Based on the language in the release, I suspect that it's just a strong McCain sample.  Time will tell...

North Dakota is definitley in play. I think these numbers strengthen his lead in one time swing states like North Carolina, Indiana and Georgia, as well.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #97 on: June 26, 2008, 02:10:49 AM »

in the form of hawk...

Wednesday 25 June, 2008

Obama - 45% (-1)
McCain - 45% (+2)

Based on the language in the release, I suspect that it's just a strong McCain sample.  Time will tell...

North Dakota is definitley in play. I think these numbers strengthen his lead in one time swing states like North Carolina, Indiana and Georgia, as well.

Phil, nobody believes this race is actually tied, just as nobody believes Obama is leading by double digits. There's no need to pretend that the Gallup Tracking Poll is the only poll that exists or that it's the only one worth anything. It just makes you and your followers (like AHDuke99) look desperate.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #98 on: June 26, 2008, 02:16:38 AM »

in the form of hawk...

Wednesday 25 June, 2008

Obama - 45% (-1)
McCain - 45% (+2)

Based on the language in the release, I suspect that it's just a strong McCain sample.  Time will tell...

North Dakota is definitley in play. I think these numbers strengthen his lead in one time swing states like North Carolina, Indiana and Georgia, as well.

Phil, nobody believes this race is actually tied, just as nobody believes Obama is leading by double digits. There's no need to pretend that the Gallup Tracking Poll is the only poll that exists or that it's the only one worth anything. It just makes you and your followers (like AHDuke99) look desperate.

You also have ChrisNJ arguing that Newsweek's poll wasn't bias, and Josh22 believes that NC has an 80% chance of flipping. So saying "nobodY" believes this nonsense is a bit inaccurate, because I assure you some do.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #99 on: June 26, 2008, 02:34:36 AM »

in the form of hawk...

Wednesday 25 June, 2008

Obama - 45% (-1)
McCain - 45% (+2)

Based on the language in the release, I suspect that it's just a strong McCain sample.  Time will tell...

North Dakota is definitley in play. I think these numbers strengthen his lead in one time swing states like North Carolina, Indiana and Georgia, as well.

Phil, nobody believes this race is actually tied, just as nobody believes Obama is leading by double digits. There's no need to pretend that the Gallup Tracking Poll is the only poll that exists or that it's the only one worth anything. It just makes you and your followers (like AHDuke99) look desperate.

Nobody believes that this race is tied? Oh, ok. We'll just agree that Obama is up nine points, right (since we can't have it as a double digit lead)? The only polls that are worth anything are the ones that show Obama up in Dem states and closing in on the lead in GOP states. That's your way of thinking and its popular here. It'll always be popular here. I suggest that you not waste your time ganging up on all five McCain supporters here just because we have some good news.

I love how every Obama supporter can boast about their "lead" everywhere else but we McCain supporters can't do the same.
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