Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]
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  Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]
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Author Topic: Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]  (Read 296967 times)
Rococo4
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« Reply #1075 on: September 25, 2008, 12:34:24 PM »

i might have a stroke
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Billion$Babies
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« Reply #1076 on: September 25, 2008, 12:42:33 PM »
« Edited: September 25, 2008, 12:46:13 PM by Billion$Babies »

Gallup is still measuring registered voters whilst Rasmussen is measuring likely voters .

Quick question . usually the Republican does better in likely voter polls and the dem better in registered voter polls.  Often this year, Gallup has McCain tracking better than Rasmussen has been.
Is the model of "Dem does better in RV polls" out the window, or have they just gotten the weighting in LV polls more accurate these days.  Or, are the polls so all over the place no one knows ??
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Rowan
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« Reply #1077 on: September 25, 2008, 12:43:57 PM »

These polls are all over the place.

But think about it, when you have the sheer number of polls we have this election year, they will be all over the place.
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« Reply #1078 on: September 25, 2008, 12:45:16 PM »

Remember that there will be a 1 in 20 sample every three weeks statistically, and between the two "main" tracking polls that means one every 10 days, or a week and a half.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #1079 on: September 25, 2008, 12:50:31 PM »

Remember that there will be a 1 in 20 sample every three weeks statistically, and between the two "main" tracking polls that means one every 10 days, or a week and a half.

Problem is, Gallup's language doesn't suggest such an event.

This update covers interviewing conducted Monday through Wednesday, and as such includes one night after McCain's announcement that he was suspending election campaigning and flying to Washington to help seek a bipartisan solution to the financial crisis. A night by night analysis of interviewing results, however, does not suggest that McCain had a dramatically better night against Obama on Wednesday. Instead, the data show that McCain has been doing slightly better for the last three days than he had in the previous week, and with some strong Obama days falling off of the rolling average, the race has moved to its current tied position.

We shall see.
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Rowan
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« Reply #1080 on: September 25, 2008, 12:53:12 PM »

Gallup is saying McCain has been slowly gaining each of the past few nights and culminated with him tying it back up.
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MODU
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« Reply #1081 on: September 25, 2008, 01:20:21 PM »


This is why I don't follow popularity polls. 
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Umengus
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« Reply #1082 on: September 25, 2008, 01:21:23 PM »

confusion is the word.

And the answer is in the party id.
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J. J.
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« Reply #1083 on: September 25, 2008, 01:54:17 PM »

Remember that there will be a 1 in 20 sample every three weeks statistically, and between the two "main" tracking polls that means one every 10 days, or a week and a half.

Or, McCain tends to go up in Gallup on week days, which I've been saying for about two months.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #1084 on: September 25, 2008, 03:46:40 PM »

Whoa, it's actually tied...

In any case, I expect Obama to win and win handily.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1085 on: September 25, 2008, 04:23:39 PM »

Uggh. Why can't Gallup and Rasmussen ever agree?
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Lunar
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« Reply #1086 on: September 26, 2008, 03:46:04 AM »

To go from O+3 to tied is a big jump.

If the numbers were previously static (assuming no pro-Obama numbers rolling off the three-day), that would mean a +9 jump for McCain in the dailies.  We'll know if this was an outlier in 3 days.  The other three dailies give some affirmative evidence that Gallup's might be off, but I like Gallup so I'll wait and see.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #1087 on: September 26, 2008, 12:02:19 PM »

Friday, September 26, 2008
Obama 48% (+2)
McCain 45% (-1)
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J. J.
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« Reply #1088 on: September 26, 2008, 12:03:46 PM »

Friday, September 26, 2008
Obama 48% (+2)
McCain 45% (-1)

Obama probably up by 4-5.
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Lunar
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« Reply #1089 on: September 26, 2008, 12:05:43 PM »

Friday, September 26, 2008
Obama 48% (+2)
McCain 45% (-1)

Whoah, what sort of numbers are required for Obama to drop 3 and then go up 3 in subsequent days?

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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #1090 on: September 26, 2008, 12:06:13 PM »

Friday, September 26, 2008
Obama 48% (+2)
McCain 45% (-1)
Good stuff. McCain really needs to win the debate tonight.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #1091 on: September 26, 2008, 12:17:47 PM »

Friday, September 26, 2008
Obama 48% (+2)
McCain 45% (-1)
McCain really needs to win the debate tonight.
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True Democrat
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« Reply #1092 on: September 26, 2008, 12:22:42 PM »

Unless McCain has at least a Kerry-type game changer, I think it's over for him.
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afleitch
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« Reply #1093 on: September 26, 2008, 12:25:55 PM »

Unless McCain has at least a Kerry-type game changer, I think it's over for him.

You said IIRC that the debates may sway your vote (?) How do things stand at the moment?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1094 on: September 26, 2008, 12:28:54 PM »

Who exactly was the last candidate to lose with a 3-7% lead 1 month before the election ?
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J. J.
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« Reply #1095 on: September 26, 2008, 12:32:01 PM »

Who exactly was the last candidate to lose with a 3-7% lead 1 month before the election ?

Gore, I think.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1096 on: September 26, 2008, 12:35:13 PM »

Who exactly was the last candidate to lose with a 3-7% lead 1 month before the election ?

Gore, I think.

Remembering Gallup's Wacky 2000 Tracking Poll:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alan-abramowitz/remembering-gallups-wacky_b_117594.html

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Verily
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« Reply #1097 on: September 26, 2008, 12:37:33 PM »

Who exactly was the last candidate to lose with a 3-7% lead 1 month before the election ?

Gore, I think.

Gore was never ahead for even a whole week, just sporadically. Bush led 95% of the time, and then Gore surged at the last minute.
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Rowan
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« Reply #1098 on: September 26, 2008, 12:53:36 PM »

Unless McCain has at least a Kerry-type game changer, I think it's over for him.

Very premature. Rasmussen will be back down to a 2-3 point lead for Obama tomorrow, and the state polling isn't looking out of reach. To call this over already is way premature.
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1099 on: September 26, 2008, 01:54:33 PM »

Who exactly was the last candidate to lose with a 3-7% lead 1 month before the election ?

Gore, I think.

Gore was never ahead for even a whole week, just sporadically. Bush led 95% of the time, and then Gore surged at the last minute.

lmao, Bush held a steady lead on Gore for most of the campaign.  the only times Gore was even or ahead came right after the DNC and in the final week, aided by the late-breaking Bush DUI story.  JJ should probably stop posting here and stick to things he's better at, presuming they exist.
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