Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And yet:

By mid week, if there is no Obama VP announcement, McCain leads.

Not happening.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Oh boy, yet another ownage of J. J. by reality! How many does this make it?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Oh well J. J.  Win some, lose some.

I still think Hillary has a decent shot to get the nomination.  I don't understand why no one else gets it.

She doesn't have a shot, unless something comes out on Obama between now and the nomination (and it would have to be bad).  She does have a very good shot of destroying the convention at this point.

LOL. You were saying Hillary still had a good shot as late as early JUNE. The second sentence has no basis in reality whatsoever (as she has made absolutely no intentions at all toward doing so.)

But then again, how many post-NH J. J. predictions have come true?

Hillary would come close in South Carolina.
Hillary would destroy Obama on Super Tuesday.
Hillary would come close in Virginia because the independents would all vote for McCain despite that race being over for some inexplicable reason.
Hillary would win or come close in Wisconsin because some imaginary polls showed it "tightening"
Hillary would win Pennsylvania by a strong double digits and a crushing in delegates.
Hillary would win Indiana by a landslide and keep NC in single digits.
Hillary would get the Florida and Michigan delegates seated at full strength with the Michigan delegation exactly as the vote went allowing Hillary to take some uncommitted.

Did I miss any?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Oh well J. J.  Win some, lose some.

I still think Hillary has a decent shot to get the nomination.  I don't understand why no one else gets it.

You are joking right?  Do you seriously think the Democrats will yank the nomination from the first black nominee at the last minute?  Do you realize how badly this would kill Democrats up and down the ballot in November? 

It's sarcasm. It's mocking J. J.'s delusions about Hillary in the past. He was still insisting Hillary had a good shot after Montana and South Dakota voted!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's a link:

The independents vote for McCain.  Hillary gets the conservative Democratic vote (which is still there).  VA also seems to have a number of Latinos and Asians (9% overall, vs. 19% African American).  The remaining 70% are Caucasian.

It's possible for a VA win for Clinton.  Primary, correct?

The bolded part..LOLOLOLOLOL! Some of the most extreme idiocy I've ever read.

Hillary's margin of victory in PA = 9.14 points. Less than double digits. Hillary's margin of delegates in Pennsylvania = far less than the 20 something J. J. predicted.

NC:

NC - Obama wins but under preforms, 4-5 points above Clinton.

No, I said that Obama needed to resolve it

No, you said flat out that both states would have delegations seated and Obama would just have to "grab as many of the uncommited as he could" in Michigan. The uncomitted were a complete moot issue in Michigan it turned out.

I suggested that they hold a second primary in MI.

As if your suggestions have any bearing whatsoever on the results.

New Hampshire

You are illiterate. I'd point out the part of my post that excludes this but anyone of inteligence above third grade should be able to find it out.

the primary not being over until June

Same prediction as me. At least I wasn't saying in early June Obama was "possibly" the nominee.

some potential problems at the convention.

"Potential" blah blah blah. Please point to me any remote indicator that all of Hillary's delegates are planning to walk out of the convention which you claim is some very likely event (or the fact that Hillary plans on doing anything at the convention other than hold a vote that she loses. Hillary's delegates vote for Hillary, Obama's delegates vote for Obama. Wow, what a huge fucking problem.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Three words certain people need to remember:

MARGIN OF ERROR

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

By mid week, if there is no Obama VP announcement, McCain leads.

Ouch. Not even the next mid-week.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

By mid week, if there is no Obama VP announcement, McCain leads.

Ouch. Not even the next mid-week.

Ok, dude, get over it/yourself.

What's the big deal? J. J. is wrong. Do you deny that? He got owned by reality, just like he was when he was screaming that Hillary had a chance in JUNE. Do you agree he was delusional about Hillary and is delusional here?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Mon 7/28:      Obama +8  (F, Sa, Su)<
Tue 7/29:       Obama +6  (Sa, Su, M)<
Wed 7/30:      Obama +4 (, Su, M, T)<
Thurs: 7/31:   Obama +1 (M, Tu, W)
Fri 8/1:           Tie (Tu,W, Th)
Sat 8/2:           Tie (W, Th, F) <
Sun 8/3:          Obama +1 (Th, F, Sa) <
Mon 8/4:         Obama +3 (F, Sa, Su) <
Tue 8/5:          Obama +4 (Sa, Su, Mo)<
Wed 8/6:         Obama +2 (Su, Mo, Tu)<
Thurs: 8/7:      Obama +3 (Mo, Tu, W)
Fri 8/8:            Obama +3 (Tu, W, Th)
Sat 8/9:            Obama +5 (W, Th, F)<
Sun 8/10:         Obama +3 (Th, F, SA)<
Mon 8/11:        Obama +5 (Sa, Su, M)<

What happens when the weekend number go in, Obama's lead tends to increase.  When the weekend numbers come out, he tends to drop.  An increase of numbers tomorrow for Obama, where there are no weekend numbers, will be significant.  A drop won't.

And where is McCain leading like you predicted?

You. Got. Owned.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

By mid week, if there is no Obama VP announcement, McCain leads.

Ouch. Not even the next mid-week.

Ok, dude, get over it/yourself.

What's the big deal? J. J. is wrong. Do you deny that? He got owned by reality, just like he was when he was screaming that Hillary had a chance in JUNE. Do you agree he was delusional about Hillary and is delusional here?

No, I don't deny it but you ride people to the point where people honestly loathe you. Grow the hell up. You have a very obsessive personality, dude. Seek help.

And so then what about you and the Obama winning Kansas thing?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's McCain's midweek bounce. The notable thing is that McCain STILL has not taken the lead.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I never said McCain didn't perform better mid-week, I'm just mocking J. J. (who in mind has clearly never left the second grade) for his prediction that McCain would lead mid-week (LAST week) if there was no VP announcement.

You were wrong J. J. Do you deny that? McCain doesn't lead. So your prediction was idiotic and a load of crap.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

...and McCain still doesn't lead.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

No footage of it hitting.  But you don't think the media would run with this?

[snip]

It seems to me like you'd be calling this potentially "very bad" or "disastrous" if this was Obama instead of McCain.  Maybe that's just me seeing that, though...

Not with being accused of gigantic bias and throwing the election to McCain.

Huh?

It would look too partisan and toss it to McCain.

LOL. LOL. NOw that is the height of hackery.

Pictures of McCain with Bush will get more people to vote for McCain. LOL. Now if you want to argue it wouldn't have much of an effect you might have a point but throw the election to McCain...LOL.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Remember how Obama was going to turn off so many voters by giving his acceptance speech in a stadium?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

At least I'll admit when I'm wrong.

True. You did after NH too, yet J. J. never owned up to his retarded babble about Wisconsin.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

At least I'll admit when I'm wrong.

True. You did after NH too, yet J. J. never owned up to his retarded babble about Wisconsin.

It look like they were closing.

Only if you give ARG any validity and/or compare apples to oranges in the polls by trying to find a trend from polls with obviously vastly different methodologies, both of which are ridiculous.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I wish we held our convention after theirs. Fu ck tradition.

I doubt this accounts for any real difference. So McCain gets a lead for a week or two. Big whoop.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/what-convention-bounce-looks-like.html

And note when that was written.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Not good news for Obama.  It should have closed.

He's only down by 2 points.

It really doesn't matter.

It makes no sense to microanalyze day by day tracking poll trends and then deem such gains or losses as "bad news" for a candidate. Especially when the race is this close.

There should have been a weekend bounce for Obama.

J. J.'s First Rule of Elections:  "If a candidate that say something like 'I don't look at the polls,' or 'The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day,' that candidate will lose."

You are flirting dangerously close to violating that one.
 

Don't you violate that rule in regards to Pennsylvania?

He did constantly during the primaries for Hillary too.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

J.J.'s first rule is stupid.

he has a God-complex.  it can be fun to watch him spew his garbage if you take the right attitude about it.

Meh. He has a manner that eliminates all amusement value from it, unlike AuH2O for example for those who remember him.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

J.J.'s first rule is stupid.

he has a God-complex.  it can be fun to watch him spew his garbage if you take the right attitude about it.

Meh. He has a manner that eliminates all amusement value from it, unlike AuH2O for example for those who remember him.

I don't really care if you are amused or not; I do care if the rule works.  So far, it has.

Yes it certainly worked for Obama against your Hillary hackery (and constant insistence Hillary was going to do better than the polls.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

J.J.'s first rule is stupid.

he has a God-complex.  it can be fun to watch him spew his garbage if you take the right attitude about it.

Meh. He has a manner that eliminates all amusement value from it, unlike AuH2O for example for those who remember him.

I don't really care if you are amused or not; I do care if the rule works.  So far, it has.

Yes it certainly worked for Obama against your Hillary hackery (and constant insistence Hillary was going to do better than the polls.)

It worked 4 years ago.  It worked 2 years ago. It looks like it's working this year.

Yes it did because Hillary didn't win despite your prediction she was underpolling every single time.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Tuesday -  September 16, 2008:

McCain  - 47% (nc)
Obama  - 46% (+1)

Damn it's the end of Obama!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Also, this is not good for McCain. McCain should be up by more.

He should? Sen. McCain should be ahead by more? But this is a Democratic year, or at least that is what everyone keeps on saying. The fact is, this isn't good for Sen. Obama, he should be up by at least 5%.

*whoosh*

That's the sound of the point of that post going right over your head.