Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

This election is over! Obama 08!

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

in the form of hawk...

Wednesday 25 June, 2008

Obama - 45% (-1)
McCain - 45% (+2)

Based on the language in the release, I suspect that it's just a strong McCain sample.  Time will tell...

North Dakota is definitley in play. I think these numbers strengthen his lead in one time swing states like North Carolina, Indiana and Georgia, as well.

Phil, nobody believes this race is actually tied, just as nobody believes Obama is leading by double digits. There's no need to pretend that the Gallup Tracking Poll is the only poll that exists or that it's the only one worth anything. It just makes you and your followers (like AHDuke99) look desperate.

You also have ChrisNJ arguing that Newsweek's poll wasn't bias, and Josh22 believes that NC has an 80% chance of flipping. So saying "nobodY" believes this nonsense is a bit inaccurate, because I assure you some do.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Sunday, July 13, 2008

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 43% (nc)

This begs the question - Could this be the end of John McCain's campaign?

I'm not sure, but McCain will have to spend a lot of time and money in Mississippi, North Carolina, Montana, North Dakota, and Kansas incase they flip.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Obama is really running away with this race!

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Just curious dave, how much does the DNC pay you to spout their talking points on this site?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Ouch. No weekend bounce for Obama today.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Friday, August 15, 2008

Obama - 44% (-2)
McCain - 44% (+1)

The Aug. 12-14 polling shows a slight dip in Obama's support, which had ranged between 46% and 48% (averaging 47%) in August. McCain has averaged 43% support among registered voters so far in August. Thus, the closer margin seen in today's results is due more to movement away from Obama than toward McCain. Twelve percent of registered voters now say they are undecided or supporting another candidate, which is on the high end of what Gallup has measured this year.

Voter preferences have been closely divided between Obama and McCain in each of the last three individual nights of polling, underscoring the notion that the race has tightened for the moment. This could to some degree reflect Obama's absence from the campaign trail while he vacations in Hawaii. He will return to the spotlight over the next few weeks upon naming his vice presidential running mate and accepting his party's nomination for president at the Democratic national convention, and both events have typically been associated with a bounce in support for a presidential candidate.

On Thursday, the Obama and Hillary Clinton campaigns announced an agreement to put her name into nomination for president at the convention. Given that the race has been tight for the past few days, it is unlikely this announcement is related to any change in Obama's support.

Since early June when Obama clinched the nomination, he has averaged a three percentage point advantage over McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Its sad to see Gallup is in bed with the right wing media.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

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He's been a deficit hawk his entire career and has never requested any type of wasteful spending. Yet, you believe that he will be the same big spender like Bush. Why? Do you just watch the Democrat talking points and believe them?

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Yes, he proposes more tax cuts for all Americans. The rich pay the most taxes, so yes, they'll get the most back. I guess if you believe in redistributing the wealth, you'd disagree with this policy. Besides, with Democrat majorities, he won't be able to get this done. Obama has said he won't be rolling back the tax cuts either until the economy turns around, so it's moot.

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LOL. You think Obama will reduce the debt when he proposes billions in new spending? The truth is neither side will reduce the deficit.

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It was Bush's fault that Enron and Worldcom went bankrupt? Those things were going on during Clinton's final years and broke a year after Bush took office. High regulation on industries will just hinder growth. There's a reason why other nations are outpacing us in economic growth.

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Stupidity lead to the current crisis. People making $50,000 a year shouldn't be buying $800,000 homes. Maybe put some warning in there, but it isn't Bush's fault that this stuff happened. Ban ARM's if we need to.

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I hope not.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Just curious... are there any live focus groups rating the debate?  link?

CNN did it live.

Did you notice how the CNN "Indies" seemed to move exactly as the Democratic line did? I bet they weren't actual indies.

Or the indies liked Obama better on the issues. But no its a CONZPIRACCY!!!!

Btw Obama won amongst the Fox focus group as well.

The most recent polling put it at a tie.

I was talking specifically about the focus group. I watched the CNN focus group so I know the winner there and I heard even the Fox focus group thought Obama won. We will see what the overall public thought in the next few days. I think Mccain did better than many on this forum think.

That Luntz group on FoxNews contained no true undecided voters when the people who felt Obama won started spouting Obama talking points like "McCain looked just like George Bush tonight." If you've bought into that, you aren't an undecided voter.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

This whole economic mess is causing Obama to jump out to a lead. Once it settles down, I suspect the race will tighten again. It's still very fluid with high undecideds. It's far from over, but it's not looking good for McCain. But a few weeks ago it was looking quite the opposite. This has been one strange election season, and I'm sure we have some more surprises ahead.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I didn't know we had a summer crisis.

Was Obama up eight points throughout the summer?

No, however that doesn't mean that Obama's lead now is because of the Wall Street Crisis and will go away once its solved

What suggests it won't? You may be right, but every time someone has gotten out to a large lead, it's usually evaporated in a week. Obama took off once this Wall St. crisis became really big in the news with this bailout being touted as the only way our economy doesn't collapse. Once the bailout passes, things should settle down. We should stop seeing 300-400 point swings daily in the markets, and Obama's lead will subside. I'm not saying he'll lose the lead, but it won't remain at 8 points.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I do agree with Phil that the large lead has to do with the crisis. However, the point was not the large lead, but about Obama leading during the summer. The point was not about how much he was leading, at least not my point.

Well, he lead through summer really doesn't mean anything. Dukakis led through the summer of 1988 as well, and I believe Bush/Perot and Carter did too. He was behind after the conventions and then regains the lead because the bottom was about to fall out on Wall Street and people blamed the Administration for it.

If things were fine, then McCain would be in much better shape. The public feels like Obama will better handle the economy, so it's no surprise he's leading by a large margin.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

We won't see it till Tuesday if there is a Palin bounce.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I saw that. I'm finished trying to guess this race. I'll just wait till the votes come in.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Well I'm not sold on an Obama victory just yet. McCain seems to have done better in the debate lady night, especially if ChrisNJ admits it. The state polls still don't matchup, but I know they always lag behind the national ones.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

The young showed up in the primaries. Why would they suddenly stop?

One obvious reason is living in a different city.  Perhaps 20% graduated and moved on.

Do you lose your right to vote when you graduate?

You do tend to lose your residence.  In the US, you have to re-register at the new address.

Yeah, good thing the Obama campaign didn't spend the summer and fall registering millions of voters.

Some of those younger people registered at home, and forgot to file for an absentee ballot; some get the application and forget to file it on time because they have a term paper due.  Some graduate, move on, and don't re-register.  Some move to different apartment in another precinct and forget to re-register.  Those little things may have an effect, just maybe a few 1000 here and there, but it makes a difference.

Those things can happen to non-young people also. 20-year-olds aren't lazier or stupider than the rest of the population.

When it comes to voting, history tells us they are certainly lazier than the rest of the population. Of course, we know history has never stopped you from making outlandish assertions.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

It's over.  I kind of regret voting for McCain now.

Why? Just because your candidate might not win doesn't mean you should just go along with the crowd and vote for Obama. Sheesh! That's the most pathetic thing you've said in a long time, Ronnie.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

It's over.  I kind of regret voting for McCain now.

Why? Just because your candidate might not win doesn't mean you should just go along with the crowd and vote for Obama. Sheesh! That's the most pathetic thing you've said in a long time, Ronnie.

Torie has convinced me just a teency bit that McCain wouldn't be too credible.  I don't like his campaign message currently, since it has moved fully to desperation, with the robocalls and all.

I despise Obama, but now I don't think I will be too upset when he is declared president-elect.

I have a lot of respect for Torie, but I disagree with him that Obama is less risky than McCain. Neither one really knows the economy, but Obama has the potential to really create a mess if he allows the Democrats to raise taxes. Hell, we don't know if it's going to be for those of us who make $250k, $200k, $150k, or $120k. Everyone keeps giving us different answers. The fact that he gets a free pass on this issue is really pissing me off.

Part of me will be happy when he gets elect so the Democrats will finally get blamed for the mess they helped create when the economy goes into the crapper in 2009, but another part of me sees what long term damage Obama might do to the country. Bernie Frank said it himself, "There are a lot of rich people that we can tax a lot."

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Wasn't Gallup horrendous in 2004 anyway?