Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

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three points is a completely meaningless distinction to make when MoEs are considered.

oh, and apparently the Hispanics aren't dead set on hating a negro.  they may well give him 70%...

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Let's go for double digits!!!!

Well, if it's gonna happen it will happen tomorrow (given that weekend data, apparently, overstates Obama's lead).

Dave

Think about it this way: Perhaps mid-week date overstates McCain's lead. How 'bout that?

the election is on a Tuesday

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lol. Only John F. Kerry managed to pull off the negative bounce.

Classic.

he talked about Vietnam for an hour.  what can you expect?

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Gallup, like Rasmussen, is proving to be way too biased in McCain's favor. I guess the only poll we can trust is Diego Hotline.

You mean "I guess the only poll we can trust is the ones that show it tied or with Obama leading."

Do you not trust Rasmussen? Because I'd argue they're one of the better national pollsters.

I would trust them a lot more if they fixed their weighting issue.

in the long run it's a good idea.  it just isn't great for bounce-times (such as the one at present).

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Gallup doesn't release till 1 PM EST. You are looking at yesterday's numbers.

I really expect Obama to up by one today or tomorrow.

nobody cares

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J.J.'s first rule is stupid.

he has a God-complex.  it can be fun to watch him spew his garbage if you take the right attitude about it.

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Goldie was awesome. He needs to come back, immediately.

he wasn't very good at what he did

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y r gallup and ras diverging?

Ras hard-weights for party ID, Gallup doesn't, making the latter more prone to swings

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Who exactly was the last candidate to lose with a 3-7% lead 1 month before the election ?

Gore, I think.

Gore was never ahead for even a whole week, just sporadically. Bush led 95% of the time, and then Gore surged at the last minute.

lmao, Bush held a steady lead on Gore for most of the campaign.  the only times Gore was even or ahead came right after the DNC and in the final week, aided by the late-breaking Bush DUI story.  JJ should probably stop posting here and stick to things he's better at, presuming they exist.

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Who exactly was the last candidate to lose with a 3-7% lead 1 month before the election ?

Gore, I think.

Gore was never ahead for even a whole week, just sporadically. Bush led 95% of the time, and then Gore surged at the last minute.

lmao, Bush held a steady lead on Gore for most of the campaign.  the only times Gore was even or ahead came right after the DNC and in the final week, aided by the late-breaking Bush DUI story.  JJ should probably stop posting here and stick to things he's better at, presuming they exist.

Oh PLEEZE, until the Oprah appearance, Bush was consistently losing to Gore.  Remember the RATS ad?  That late September bounce was Oprah.

what?  look at the graph.  from mid-September on Gore never led (until election day).  you claimed Gore had a 3-7% lead a month before the election when he was in reality down by mid-single digits.  I know you don't like facts, but this is a difficult stretch to pull off.

re-reading your post, I'm not 100% sure that you aren't joking, but I'll assume that you're being serious.

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In other words, J.J. got the year right, he just got the wrong name.

I think the last candidate to lead by this much and lose was Gore, as the chart shows. 

The chart is using the media color scheme, not the sane color scheme. Look again. (Besides, Gore didn't lose the election anyhow. )

that's the only justification for what he's saying, that JJ is reading the graph as the inverse of what it really is.  (and the graph of course tracks PV, which Gore did win, so there's no necessary)

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The last "Palin bounce" took 4-5 days to show up, lets wait a little.

why would she get a bounce if nearly every poll suggests people think she lost?

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"well, I think Sarah lost, but I was expecting her to lose even worse so I'm gonna vote for McCain now!"

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10/14/08

Obama 51 (nc)
McCain 42 (+1)

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10/14/08

Obama 51 (nc)
McCain 42 (+1)

is this LV or RV?

RV, LV (expanded) is 53-43, traditional LV is 51-45

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LV (new voter formula)
Obama 53
McCain 43

LV (traditional)
Obama 51
McCain 45

which one is better?

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LV (new voter formula)
Obama 53
McCain 43

LV (traditional)
Obama 51
McCain 45

which one is better?

Really no way of knowing until after the election.

if we took that attitude for everything we'd have no reason to post here!  and wouldn't that be a shame.

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RV

Obama 50 (+1)
McCain 43 (nc)

LV (expanded)

Obama 51 (nc)
McCain 45 (nc)

LV (traditional)

Obama 49 (nc)
McCain 47 (nc)

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10/21/08

RV

Obama 52 (nc)
McCain 41 (nc)

LV expanded

Obama 52 (nc)
McCain 42 (-1)

LV traditional

Obama 51 (+1)
McCain 44 (-1)

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it appears as if the LV models are starting to catch up with one another.

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10/27/08

RV

Obama 52 (+1)
McCain 42 (nc)

LV expanded

Obama 53 (+1)
McCain 43 (nc)

LV traditional

Obama 50 (nc)
McCain 45 (nc)

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Could this thread get any more petty? OMG, you can't be teh smart!!11 Yes, I can too.......

especially when a 46-year-old feels the need to actively take part in a dick-waving contest

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11/03/08

Registered

Obama 53 (+1)
McCain 40 (-1)

LV expanded

Obama 53 (+1)
McCain 42 (-1)

LV traditional

Obama 53 (+2)
McCain 42 (-1)