Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[RJ]

I really wish people would just give up on this "weekend polling" crap. I've lost track if the polls are supposed to be more in favor of which candidate and on what days. When the polls tighten/open up, everyone tries to justify why it's where it is with the equivalent of specious reasoning.

[RJ]

But yet it is usually there, or a midweek bounce for McCain, whichever way you want to measure it.  I'll add that it's usually there in Gallup, and not Rasmussen.

Here are the reaults from the last 15 days of the Gallup tracking poll:

Mon 7/28:      Obama +8
Tue 7/29:       Obama +6
Wed 7/30:      Obama +4
Thurs: 7/31:   Obama +1
Fri 8/1:           Tie
Sat 8/2:           Tie
Sun 8/3:          Obama +1
Mon 8/4:         Obama +3
Tue 8/5:          Obama +4
Wed 8/6:         Obama +2
Thurs: 8/7:      Obama +3
Fri 8/8:            Obama +3
Sat 8/9:            Obama +5
Sun 8/10:         Obama +3
Mon 8/11:        Obama +5

I'm just curious how you've interpreted this "bounce" from the data. Obama's lead may have seemed great Mon July 28/Tue July 29(which incidentally is the week after he got back from his Europe/Mideast trip) when compared to the later part of that particular week but it hovered around the same and if anything grew in the later part of last week when compared to mid or early week.

[RJ]

What happens when the weekend number go in, Obama's lead tends to increase.  When the weekend numbers come out, he tends to drop.  An increase of numbers tomorrow for Obama, where there are no weekend numbers, will be significant.  A drop won't.

What days of the week(tracking polls being released-wise), should we look for the bump?

Say, by the way Phil anything new numbers wise out of PA concerning those catholic blue collar workers? How are the polls looking there, have htey tighened up in the last few weeks?

[RJ]

Call me out in the thread if you want to be a loud mouth tough guy, ok?

I have zero respect for those who start trouble, insist that they'll get the last word, finally grow up and admit that that way or arguing is immature and leave only to resurface when something goes their way.

Would you like a little cheese with your whine??? By the way, the last thing I would expect you to say is that you have any respect for me or anyone who doesn't wholeheartedly agree with you. The second to last thing I would expect is for you to offer some hard proof of your claim.

[RJ]

I'm going to ask one more time---What is so freakin' difficult about proving what you're saying? I'm not the one making the claim here, you are. I think you also completely missed the basis of what I said before so I'll refresh your memory: What portion of the PA electorate do "catholic blue collar workers" comprise and how much of this portion would have to swing? You can't find the statistics in question or you just won't? You're going to hear about this until you have a better answer than "get a clue" or "that comment is assinine." If it bothers you, too bad.

(insert childish last word/response below)

[RJ]

OK, this might be be a bad sample, but now, this something we want to watch.  If this continues into the Wednesday numbers, the race has gotten tighter.

Maybe this "weekend bounce" just doesn't exist after all.

[RJ]

OK, this might be be a bad sample, but now, this something we want to watch.  If this continues into the Wednesday numbers, the race has gotten tighter.

Maybe this "weekend bounce" just doesn't exist after all.

As you can see from the most recent numbers, yes it does.

But Obama's lead is smaller according to today's data than it was Wednesday or Thursday of last week. That's according to Gallup.

[RJ]

McCain leads by 5 today and lead by 3 yesterday. Rasmussen is only reporting 2 as of today. Anyone think this is his peak?

I'll say no right now but it won't get a whole lot bigger(perhaps as much as 6 and it'll be dead even  before long.)  After listening to the media, I expected McCain to have an insurmountable lead.

[RJ]

The thing is, neither Carter nor the Democrats were insanely unpopular at that point.  It was just a post GOP convention bounce versus the DNC bounce.

I couldn't believe it when I read it that Carter got a 10 point bounce in 1980 after the DNC convention. I was very young when this election took place, but there's 1 thing I remember: Iran Hostage Crisis. That thing really did Carter in.

Among other things that I don't remember but read about is stagflation. A new word in the English language (at that point in time) had to be invented since economists believed high inflation and unemployment could not be attained in the same time period. Under Carter, it became reality. There was also Carter's energy conservation, which was a colossal failure. Carter also almost collapsed and lost in 76'. There was also the Kennedy factor when he trashed Carter in his concession speech in 1980.

[RJ]

Amazing numbers; any ideas on why Obama's suddenly jumped ahead the last few days?

Is it at least comortable underneath that rock?

Serious answer is the market, which has cooled (did it end the week up?).

I'll comment on this as well, even though I don't like to do that very much.

The market is probably the majority of the reason, but I also think Palin is losing some of her momentum in this campaign. She had the blip in the interview in which she wasn't clear on the Bush Doctrine and now there's this issue with her husband not testifying in the state trooper scandal. She's supposed to be the biggest asset McCain has in his campaign, but it's not showing right now. The Market thing will pass (hopefully there won't be another thing like this happen for Mac's sake) but as small as these two incidents are, this could be the more drastic long term issue. Republicans everywhere better hope a pattern isn't developing.