Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Lief 🗽]

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Er... wow.

[Lief 🗽]

I can't believe McCain has been asleep and the race is essentially tied.

It's really not.

[Lief 🗽]

I can't believe McCain has been asleep and the race is essentially tied.

It's really not.

Of course it is, can't you read? Obama should be ahead by 15-20 pts.

Regardless of how much he "should" be ahead by, the race is not essentially tied. Obama's been consistently ahead since the primary ended.

[Lief 🗽]

Well, 1 or 2% of that is probably Clinton or Huckabee/Romney/Paul supporters who are still disgruntled.

[Lief 🗽]

Well, Gallup and Rasmussen disagree completely again. Hooray!

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Yeah, I remember when Reagan was barely ahead during the Summer of 1980 too. Carter's second term was great.

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Ah. Here's the Obama weekend bounce J.J. talks so much about.

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I don't see how there can be movement when nothing is happening...

[Lief 🗽]

Both Gallup and Rasmussen show Obama at 50% for the first time. Good job Sarah.

[Lief 🗽]

Both Gallup and Rasmussen show Obama at 50% for the first time. Good job Sarah.

Let's wait a bid.  The early ones showed just the opposite, and we do have severa days worth showing Obama's numbers dropping after the Biden selection.

That was a temporary reaction from Clinton supporters, that was to be expected. Bill and Hilary's forceful and enthusiastic endorsements of Obama at the convention pushed a lot of those same angered Clinton supporters back to Obama, where I think they're likely to stay (especially after McCain's insulting attempt at pandering to them with Palin).

[Lief 🗽]

Pretty soon McCain will realize that Palin, while awesome at solidifying conservatives behind the most far-right major party ticket since Goldwater, isn't doing a great job of wooing independents and Democrats. And if McCain doesn't significantly cut into Obama's numbers with indies and dems, he's screwed.

[Lief 🗽]

Pretty soon McCain will realize that Palin, while awesome at solidifying conservatives behind the most far-right major party ticket since Goldwater, isn't doing a great job of wooing independents and Democrats. And if McCain doesn't significantly cut into Obama's numbers with indies and dems, he's screwed.

Bush won in 2004 without Democrats and Indies. Bush 2004 and McCain 2008 are all about turning out the fundie base.

Bush was elected by getting just about all of the Republican vote, and then a few independents and democrats. McCain can do the same, and win.

Not unless something major (as in out of McCain and Obama's control) happens between now and November that completely changes the dynamics of the race.

[Lief 🗽]

Monday, September 8

McCain - 49% (+1)
Obama - 44% (-1)

Slightly better than expected.

Do you pick up your paycheck from the local RNC campaign office, or do they mail it to you?

McCain's lead will probably evaporate as the week wears on, though he should have some residual bounce until the debates.

[Lief 🗽]

WHY CAN'T MCCAIN GET ABOVE 50%?

WHY CAN'T MCCAIN COMPLETE THE SALE?

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Gallup, like Rasmussen, is proving to be way too biased in McCain's favor. I guess the only poll we can trust is Diego Hotline.

You mean "I guess the only poll we can trust is the ones that show it tied or with Obama leading."

Do you not trust Rasmussen? Because I'd argue they're one of the better national pollsters.

[Lief 🗽]

If Sen. McCain can just hold the lead or stay tied until the first debate, I will be very happy.

He probably will, unless something happens. Generally a convention bounce persists (at least to a degree) for a few weeks after the convention.

[Lief 🗽]

Monday -  September 15, 2008:

McCain  - 47% (nc)
Obama  - 45% (nc)

McCain is in deep trouble now.

[Lief 🗽]

J.J.'s first rule is stupid.

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Obama is finished.

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McCain is finished! Obama has won the election!

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The scales have tipped in our favor. If I were to use a baseball analogy, we just scored a touchdown in the 7th inning.

Try in the 5th, with the other side getting the same inning at bat.

Obama has a problem policy wise; he favors a capital gains tax increase that hurts investment.

American voters don't know that means. They probably don't even know about it.

[Lief 🗽]

Nice.

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And the Dow is off by less than 100 points for the week.

That's great for the investor/millionaire class. But most Americans didn't need a bad day on Wall Street to tell them that they're struggling to get by.

[Lief 🗽]

And the Dow is off by less than 100 points for the week.

That's great for the investor/millionaire class. But most Americans didn't need a bad day on Wall Street to tell them that they're struggling to get by.

The shot in the polls suggest otherwise.

The catastrophe on wall street forced the media to change the topic of the election to the economy; when we're talking about the economy, rather than pointless distractions, Obama should get a boost. McCain's convention bounce was bound to evaporate faster when the news story changed to a new one, and then, to top it all off, Palin's favorables have collapsed.

[Lief 🗽]

McCain had a lead once. Disappeared after a week or so, if I remember correctly.