Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Person Man]

Yeah. I wonder why. Perhaps its cyclical. I just don't see why McCain is doing well now when Obama is ahead in places like Colorado and Virginia and that McCain is struggling in the Northern Plains. My guess is that the campaign has just died down. Still, non-trackers show a 4-7 point race.

[Person Man]

It could simply be the case that Obama's base is simply much busier than McCain's. This could help McCain since the election is on Tuesday, but the enthusaism gap is so big that it might not even matter.

[Person Man]

Sunday - August 17, 2008

Obama - 45% (nc)
McCain - 45% (+1)

OK, this might be be a bad sample, but now, this something we want to watch.  If this continues into the Wednesday numbers, the race has gotten tighter.

Sunday - August 17, 2008


I wonder why... Obama seems to be raising twice as much money...

[Person Man]

A 7 point bounce.... not bad....if McCain gets a 5 point bounce, Obama will be ahead by 3, instead of 1. This will mean that it will still be Obama's race to lose.

[Person Man]

Palin seems to be the new Alan Keyes.

Shh....don't tell Borat about her anti-semitism. He might try to make rape on her.

[Person Man]

I think Obama will maintain a 2% lead coming out of this thing. That will mean that McCain's last oppurtunity is the debates. The only asset in the debates is Biden. The only liability, Palin.

[Person Man]

At least I'll admit when I'm wrong.

True. You did after NH too, yet J. J. never owned up to his retarded babble about Wisconsin.

He sure misses the mark for a MENSA dude....

[Person Man]

At least I'll admit when I'm wrong.

True. You did after NH too, yet J. J. never owned up to his retarded babble about Wisconsin.

It look like they were closing.

Only if you give ARG any validity and/or compare apples to oranges in the polls by trying to find a trend from polls with obviously vastly different methodologies, both of which are ridiculous.

I don't know how J.J. is in person. I bet he's a pretty nice guy, and sometimes he comes off that way....but he says some pretty inaccurate and ignorant things that make it hard for me to believe that.  

[Person Man]

At least I'll admit when I'm wrong.

True. You did after NH too, yet J. J. never owned up to his retarded babble about Wisconsin.

He sure misses the mark for a MENSA dude....

Expected a four point lead on one of the polls and got it.  I don't know what more you want.

I can use smaller words if it can help you Epsilons.  

Epsilons...hehe.... You are funny though. Fu cked up like me.

[Person Man]

Hopefully, we are recovering from our little Tet Offensive.

[Person Man]

As much as the RCP folks like to hand with nationalists and plutocrats, I agree that Micky C is up about 2 points now. He still may not actually win, even with a two point lead...unless he siphons New Mexico or Michigan, that look more Republican than Pennsylvania, Iowa or even Colorado.

[Person Man]

As I said, these numbers are rock solid.  McCain should be leading 2-3 points nationally now; no more, no less.

The Rasmussen update tomorrow on CO, VA, PA, FL and OH should be interesting, considering McCain gained 2-3% over the week nationally.

My predictions-

CO - Tie
VA- R +4
PA- D+1
FL- R+3
OH - R+5

[Person Man]

This thing is going to settle back into a modest Obama lead that's only going to get worse for McCain over the course of the debates. 

More than a bit of wishful thinking. 

It will depend on how well each candidate does in the debate.

[Person Man]

Super Mario World was from 1991, dipstick.

[Person Man]

The race is not tightening. Any upset by McCain will be because of illegitimate reasons.

[Person Man]

Yeah man, were paranoid. That's why we are still trying to get the vote out in Iowa and Colorado.