Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Brittain33]

Utah and California are canceling each other out.

[Brittain33]

I'm not entirely sure how waiting for a days sample to get out of the average and saying it's a 4-6 point race, at this point is getting "excited."

It's the whole thing where one person started a new thread about Obama and McCain being tied in this daily tracking poll.

[Brittain33]

I'm not entirely sure how waiting for a days sample to get out of the average and saying it's a 4-6 point race, at this point is getting "excited."

It's the whole thing where one person started a new thread about Obama and McCain being tied in this daily tracking poll.

I think the bulk of posters said, "Maybe this just one bad sample."

I agree, attributing the posts of one or two people to a whole party's worth of posters is bad.

[Brittain33]

Just curious dave, how much does the DNC pay you to spout their talking points on this site?

That's not a talking point, it's a competely neutral assessment and in line with previous voting patterns. Republican voting increases with education until you get to graduate school, and then it drops.

[Brittain33]

My only real question is if Obama gets a weekend bump or if McCain gets a mid-week bump.

Or if Obama suffers a mid-week sag, or if McCain suffers a weekend sag.

What is truth in this situation?

[Brittain33]

In keeping with the theme of Dems posting on good Gallup days for Obama, Republicans posting on good Gallup days for McCain:

Monday - August 18, 2008

Obama - 46% (+1)
McCain - 43% (-2)

[Brittain33]

Wednesday, August 27

Obama 45% (+1)
McCain 44% (-2)

[Brittain33]

Time to short Pawlenty and buy Lieberman... McCain's volatility index went way up.

[Brittain33]

Tuesday - September 2, 2008

Obama 50% (+1)
McCain 42% (-1)

[Brittain33]

Wednesday - September 3, 2008

Obama - 49% (-1)
McCain - 43% (+1)

[Brittain33]

Wednesday - September 4, 2008

Obama - 49% (nc)
McCain - 42% (-1)

Labor Day's throwing people off. It's Thursday.

[Brittain33]

Pretty soon McCain will realize that Palin, while awesome at solidifying conservatives behind the most far-right major party ticket since Goldwater, isn't doing a great job of wooing independents and Democrats. And if McCain doesn't significantly cut into Obama's numbers with indies and dems, he's screwed.

Bush won in 2004 without Democrats and Indies. Bush 2004 and McCain 2008 are all about turning out the fundie base.

Yes, and all McCain would have to do to make that work is recreate the macro conditions of 2004 for the Republicans while making Obama do worse than Kerry in connecting to voters.

Palin absolutely stopped the bleeding, as someone said last night. Where they go from here, remains to be seen. They don't win with a 2004 strategy any more than Gore could win with a 1996 strategy.

[Brittain33]

Friday - September 5, 2008

Obama - 48% (-1)
McCain - 44% (+2)

While the difference between today's result and Thursday's 49% to 42% lead for Obama is not statistically significant, some of the broader shifts seen over the past 10 days, spanning both party's national conventions, have been meaningful.

Support for Obama since just before the Democratic National Convention kicked off on Aug. 25 has ranged from 44% to 50%, while McCain's support has ranged from 41% to 46%. Whereas the race was initially tied at 45%, Obama pulled into an eight-point lead at several points over the course of his convention. It now appears the Republican National Convention may be helping McCain to recoup some of his losses, though with Obama's current four-point lead, the entire convention period to this point has still been a net plus for Obama. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)

While both conventions are now over, measurement of public reaction to them is not. Results, based on interviewing conducted Sept. 2-4, include just one day of interviewing conducted after Wednesday night's widely viewed acceptance speech by McCain's vice presidential running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. Most interviewing Thursday night was conducted before McCain's acceptance speech, so Gallup Poll Daily tracking results will start to reflect its impact in Saturday's report. The full impact of the GOP convention on voter preferences will not be known until Monday's report, the first in which all interviews will have been conducted following the convention's conclusion.

[Brittain33]

Saturday - September 6, 2008

Obama - 47% (-1)
McCain - 45% (+1)

[Brittain33]

McCain will probably lead several polls this week. I think we'll have to wait and see how things look in a week or two before we get a really good idea of where the race stands.

Many Democrats have optimistically looked at this as 1980-redux (only with Dems the beneficiaries) --  I wonder if the best comparison is actually 1960. 1960 was a Democratic year, with most of the fundamentals pointing to a Democratic victory. 1958 had seen huge Democratic gains in Congress. Yet there were concerns about Kennedy's religion and experience and in the end the race was very close.

Of course, one big difference was that Ike was nowhere near as unpopular as Bush is. Nixon benefited from his association with Ike. McCain, by contrast, benefits from NOT being associated with Bush -- despite Democratic attempts to tie him to Bush, McCain's favorables remain stubbornly high. He is one of the most well-known politicians in the country and he has a reputation from Bush's first term for moderation and independence. That's a perception that is difficult to completely dislodge.

My own guess is that given the fundamentals, this is going to be an Obama victory. But it'll probably be a narrow one, with a popular vote margin anywhere between 0.5-4% (probably 1-2%) and an electoral college victory that is also quite narrow. I'm not at all confident about Ohio -- though Obama has led polls there, Ohio (and Michigan and Pennsylvania) are places where I'd expect to see a Bradley effect in the polls, meaning that Michigan and Pennsylvania will probably go to Obama but will be closer than polled and Ohio may well go to McCain. So at this point, if we're looking at a very narrow Obama lead, I'd expect his most likely EV victory route to go through holding the Gore/Kerry states (incl. NH, Iowa, and New Mexico), and winning Colorado, Virginia or both.

Man, for a minute there I thought you were jsojourner and had backed away from the ledge.

Anyway, I agree with this. It sounds quite plausible.

[Brittain33]

I wish we held our convention after theirs. Fu ck tradition.

I doubt this accounts for any real difference. So McCain gets a lead for a week or two. Big whoop.

Two weeks is where you start getting problems.

If McCain is ahead or with end 2% in two week, you can count Sen. Obama out. Sen. McCain well do very well in the debates and Sen. Obama will not.

2% and it's over?  Wow.

Yeah, I'm reeling from that one. An Obama lead of 2% means he's sure to lose?!

[Brittain33]

That sample was weaker for McCain than yesterday's... maybe even Friday too (I'm too lazy to do the math.)


John McCain is collapsing

This sample is something like McCain +4, I think.

[Brittain33]

WHY CAN'T MCCAIN GET ABOVE 50%?

WHY CAN'T MCCAIN COMPLETE THE SALE?

give her time, son, give her time

Heh....her

I'm guessing you're talking about Palin.  I want to know what you have to say about the fact that she once tried to have certain books banned in her town as mayor...  Seriously.  All you Palin freaks, answer to that. 

That was debunked the other day. False. She simply had a conversation about different beliefs with the librarian.

Yeah she had a "conversation" about banning books. No one was forcing anyone to do anything....yeah right.

Sounds like Cheney's conversations with the CIA about the intelligence he'd like to hear.

[Brittain33]

1. Bush has a lower approval rating than Carter.
2. Bush would lose by a wider margin to the opposition candidate than Carter.
3. Therefore, Bush is more popular than Carter.

I thought Bush had higher approvals than Carter, but even higher disapprovals.

[Brittain33]

Wednesday, September 10

McCain - 48% (-1)
Obama - 43% (-1)

[Brittain33]

Friday - September 12, 2008

McCain - 48% (nc)
Obama - 45% (+1)

These results, based on interviewing conducted Tuesday through Thursday, mark the first time since the Sept. 4-6 report that McCain does not have a statistically significant lead over Obama, and also reflect interviewing on Thursday that showed a very close race. It is unknown whether or not Thursday's results may have reflected any possible impact of Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin's widely publicized television interviews with Charles Gibson of ABC News, which began to be broadcast Thursday evening.

The story of the presidential race this year since early June has been a tendency for candidate support levels to return to near parity after one or the other candidate moves into a brief lead, so the days ahead will show whether or not this contest will once again settle back into a "too close to call" structure.

Obama and McCain were together Thursday at memorial services in New York at the site of the 9/11 terrorist attack, but both campaigns have now returned to hot and heavy campaigning, including ads directly attacking each other's positions on issues.

[Brittain33]

About what I would expect for today. It will be interesting to see what gallup looks like come Monday or so, Obama does see a weekend bounce in it sometimes.

Tuesday, I think, was a very strong sample for McCain that will roll off for tomorrow's results.

[Brittain33]

Both Rasmussen and Gallup agree.  Very interesting.

Reassuring to me, too, that the shifts in party ID post-RNC may have been ephemeral.

[Brittain33]

Both Rasmussen and Gallup agree.  Very interesting.

Reassuring to me, too, that the shifts in party ID post-RNC may have been ephemeral.

Rasmussen was actually an increase.

I know. I didn't believe the tie and was worried that it was low because of outdated party ID weighting.

[Brittain33]

Monday -  September 15, 2008:

McCain  - 47% (nc)
Obama  - 45% (nc)