Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[TheGlobalizer]

I personally suspect the sample dropping off tomorrow is a pro-Obama sample, but with the Dow doing as it is today, it may be replaced by a similar one.

Yikes, just Google Finance-d the Dow.

[TheGlobalizer]

Prevent Defense sucks.

Haha...as a Ravens fan under the Billick regime, we were very familiar with the prevent defense.

We probably lost 2-3 games/year that way.

[TheGlobalizer]

This is starting to get too close for comfort again, at least in the national tracking polls.

don't worry, why would independents break for McCain after how erractic his campaign has been? 

Because they like him or his policies better?

[TheGlobalizer]

Problem is once he's elected and he destroys the economy and allows Russia to run over Eastern Europe (it would be the perfect time to do it), people will be still praising him.

Just to comment on this -- not a far-off statement, if by "Eastern Europe" we're talking about Ukraine, Belarus, and the Caucasus, and to a lesser extent the Baltics.

Run over politically, that is.  If Canada or Mexico were as active in our politics as Russia is in its neighbors, many of our citizens would be clamoring for war.

[TheGlobalizer]

The race is widening, not tightening.  The polls are looking good.

Actually the RCP measure shows the race tightening, but not by much.

How do you figure that when it shows a 5.0 lead for Obama yesterday, and a 5.3 lead for him today?  Hmmm?? 

As usual, you are wrong.  I will assume that you are simply ignorant/poorly informed here, and not intentionally lying so as to benefit your political leanings.  Either way, you suck!

Shhhh.  You're becoming a troll.

[TheGlobalizer]

He's always been a troll, but the troll is right.

It's also now +5.8.  Somehow I'm trusting realclearpolitics.com more on the realclearpolitics.com average than something Peper11 posted 10 hours ago (call me zany, call me nuts.)

I don't view the RCP average as inerrant truth.  The 7 day trend is towards closing, even if a few outlier polls are bumping the average up a bit in the short term.

[TheGlobalizer]

I generally agree, but I don't see much evidence that it's anything beyond regression toward the mean, which is rarely linear.  And even if it were, McCain would be tied at best Election Day -- and would therefore almost certainly lose.  McCain needs something to happen.

Agree, I just pile on top my conjecture that the party ID weighting is a bit to the left of where it should be.

I think it's a 2-4 point Obama advantage today, without a foreseeable prospective bump for Obama (barring grandma's passing (hope not) creating a sympathy vote).  It's a horserace, and I think McCain can even pull out an EV win on a -1 PV margin, given the states that are in play.

Not saying it's likely today, but it's not much of a stretch, either.

[TheGlobalizer]

It just gets worse and worse, this is brutal.  I am going to get myself hammered on election night so I won't feel the pain that will be unfolding in front of my eyes.

Can you keep that up for 4 years?

[TheGlobalizer]

It just gets worse and worse, this is brutal.  I am going to get myself hammered on election night so I won't feel the pain that will be unfolding in front of my eyes.

Can you keep that up for 4 years?

I won't have to.  The Republican party always does better as the minority party unfortunately.  In a way I am looking forward to the Democrats being in control of everything.  It's all their in their court now, they will get the blame or credit for everything.  The pressure is on them.  No more Bush to kick around.  I basically feel like there is no where to go from this point but up.  The expectations for Obama are huge, there is no way he can live up to them.

We'll have to rebuild the way we did after 1992, and the way the Dems did after 2004.  We are going to have to "find our voice again".  I have faith that the American people are not going to like this experiment with socialism that is coming. 

I think it'll take longer than 2 years.  It'll be easy to drag Bush's disintegrating corpse behind the bus for a few more years.

[TheGlobalizer]

this could be dramatically good news for McCain.  high weekend numbers remained for Obama.  I will let you know by Thursday if this is real.

You are actually right, though you don't realize it. 

The was no movement in Rasmussen, so I'm somewhat skeptical.

To be fair, Ras went bonkers for McCain yesterday.

[TheGlobalizer]

i know its been said, but i just want to reiterate how BS it is that gallup is doing 3 different numbers.  i cant believe they are being allowed to get away with it.  sure, turnout is hard to predict, but that is their job.

It is intellectually honest.  I respect it.

[TheGlobalizer]

Enough with "Christian Democrat" thing, Dave. You're like a broken record.

Personally, I'm still hoping he's a closet athiest/non-religious, but that's me.

If he came out and said he was an atheist, he might get my vote.

He would, of course, lose the election, however.

[TheGlobalizer]

No, I told you long ago, McCain trends better over weekdays in Gallup, and I'm not overjoyed when he goes up a point on a Thursday.  I am worried when he drops late in the week.  That is much more troubling that Obama jumping a point on a Monday release.

Breathe.  I think you're starting to watch the pools a bit too closely. 

[TheGlobalizer]

Baffling.

*shrug*

[TheGlobalizer]

Weather or not you believe me is irrelevant.

*facepalm*

[TheGlobalizer]

Weather or not you believe me is irrelevant.

*facepalm*

Sorry, I was trying to get the election day forecast at the time I typed it. 

Don't worry, I'm not going to slag on your intellect.  We agree too often for that.

[TheGlobalizer]

Gallup must be certain of what they're doing here. They're basically putting their entire reputation on the line here. If the election is close, they are gonna look like fools.

Here's hoping that they're spot on!

To be fair, I think Gallup is stronger with less dynamic issues.  (Same with Pew.)

I'd personally rather that they stick to their World Poll and other similar work, which is uniformly fantastic.