Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Kalimantan]

If Obama takes CO (9)...

A) Given NV (5)... NH+NM (9) or IA (7)
Longshot... OR (7)

B) Without NV... NM+IA (12), NH+IA (11), PA (21), MI (17), or WI (10)
Longshots... NJ (15), MN (10), NM+OR (12)

I cannot see WA (11) flipping, but if I see a close poll come late this month or October, I'd consider myself corrected.

I probably messed up somewhere, because I was not using a map.

Don't know what you're on about...

[Kalimantan]

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Obama 49% (-1)
McCain 43% (+1)

This is based on interviewing conducted Sept. 27-29, spanning an intense period of negotiations over an historical financial recovery package in Congress on Friday and Saturday, news of a tentative agreement on the package on Sunday, and then collapse of the bill when it came to the House floor on Monday. It also represents the first report including three full days of tracking following Friday night's presidential debate.

Today's results mark the fourth straight day Obama has held a five percentage point or better lead over McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking, and two full weeks since McCain last had any advantage over Obama in national voter preferences. McCain held a slim lead over Obama for several days following the Republican National Convention in early September, but that quickly evaporated with the Wall Street financial crisis that began with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers on Sept. 15.

Although support for Obama among national registered voters hit the 50% mark in the past two days of Gallup Poll Daily tracking (he initially attained 50% in early September), he has yet to cross that symbolic threshold. The importance of this, however, is unclear. Gallup's historical trial heat trends show that the winners in 1988, 2000 -- both years with minimal third party candidate support suppressing the vote for the major party candidates -- rarely attained 50% or greater support from registered voters prior to Gallup's final pre-election poll.

Voter support for George W. Bush only once exceeded 50% in his 2004 campaign against John Kerry, that being 53% in mid-September. In 1988, George H.W. Bush reached or surpassed the 50% mark once at the very beginning and then not again until the last two weeks of the campaign

[Kalimantan]

probably just the weekend bounce.  i'll let you know by thursday if this is real or not.

LOL. great snark!

[Kalimantan]

Thems some nice numbers

5 days to go

[Kalimantan]

Why is a candidate doing so well sending out urgent requests for more volunteers. especially one with a good ground game?

God you're such a liar

[Kalimantan]

Why is a candidate doing so well sending out urgent requests for more volunteers. especially one with a good ground game?

God you're such a liar

No, I'm telling what was reported on MSNBC this morning.

I also believe that campaigns with good ground games will have their volunteers in place more than 72 hours before the election. 

I think you're mistaken JJ.

I meant, you're a liar that you are in MENSA.

Because, people have to be intelligent to get into MENSA.

[Kalimantan]

Well, I am a life member of Mensa, note that it isn't capitalized.  I doubt if you are eligible.

I don't believe you.

You argue that a candidate for president should stop trying to get his vote out 3 days before the election because he is ahead. The worst thing is, you believe this to be true.

If you're in mensa, the only qualification is whether you can pay the membership fee.

[Kalimantan]

Of course I believe you're in mensa JJ (afterall, that bumper sticker is irrefutable proof)

and because you're in mensa you should be able to recognise that I'm pointing out the discrepancy between your being a member of mensa and the idiotic, illogical posts that you come up with.

Unfortunately it appears that being a republican hack usurps even intelligence.

[Kalimantan]

Guess we won't get a test of whether "Traditional" or "Expanded" is a superior model, then.

Hmmm, seems a bit fishy that..

[Kalimantan]

Hey JJ, didn't mean to be quite so abusive last night, had had a few too many drinks. Still think you post a lot of hackish rubbish, but there was no need to be so rude. sorry 'bout that.

[Kalimantan]

Hey JJ, didn't mean to be quite so abusive last night, had had a few too many drinks. Still think you post a lot of hackish rubbish, but there was no need to be so rude. sorry 'bout that.

I'll treat you as being a "wet Democrat." 

HA! you bastard !