Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Rowan]

Second, the Gallup poll you are using is a "registered voter" poll, and as such understates the real Obama lead as "likely" voters are more likely to favor Obama over McCain than registered voters.

Now this is just blantaly false spin. McCain would lead if they used a likely voter format because Obama's supporters(blacks and kids) are less likely to vote than McCain supporters(conservatives and seniors).

[Rowan]

Obama usually does better on summer weekend polling.

[Rowan]

It isn't just a coincidence that Obama's lead increases over the weekend every time in the Gallup poll.

[Rowan]

Again, the large number of undecideds (13 in this poll) is remarkable, if not unique for Gallup.

I'm guessing a lot of traditionally Democratic working class whites and suburban moderates who are sick of Repubs and would normally be going for the Dem nominee are staying undecided. In places like West Virginia, Ohio and New Hampshire, these voters broke against Obama in the closing days.

And they are undecided because Obama is a flawed candidate.

[Rowan]

This is a complete weekend sample in Gallup polling. Obama's numbers have ALWAYS been inflated on weekends so far.

[Rowan]

This is a complete weekend sample in Gallup polling.

Unless it's a long weekend, that's never going to be the case.  Gallup is a three-day tracker.

Saturday, Sunday and Monday, the reported on Tuesday.

Err?

It's Monday.  This poll is Friday-Sunday.  So, it's not "all-weekend."  I don't think last Friday was a holiday, was it?

Friday is part of the weekend. People are out doing things, do you really think that is a good time to poll?

[Rowan]

The friday polling sample dropped off on this average. Too bad elections aren't held on weekends or Obama would win by 10 points.

[Rowan]

Weekend polling from Gallup.

*Sigh*

[Rowan]

Once the weekend polling leaves the sample, it will be back to a 2-3 point race, where the race is right now.

[Rowan]

I guess Obama didn't get his usual bounce from Friday night polling. This is interesting.

[Rowan]

Obama should bounce with tomorrow's numbers.

why?  it will be all weekday numbers, no?

Friday is essentially part of the weekend. People are out doing things.

[Rowan]

Weekend bounce is back.

Sigh.

[Rowan]

Weekend bounce is back.

Sigh.

Umm... no.

There is not a weekend sample in this tracking poll.

Friday, Saturday, Sunday constitutes the weekend.

[Rowan]

Hmm, I must say I am baffled how his lead didn't grow with Saturday polling included.

[Rowan]

I think this is the first time that McCain has hit 45% in Gallup since Obama won the nomination.

[Rowan]

Sunday - August 17, 2008

Obama - 45% (nc)
McCain - 45% (+1)

OK, this might be be a bad sample, but now, this something we want to watch.  If this continues into the Wednesday numbers, the race has gotten tighter.

Sunday - August 17, 2008


I wonder why... Obama seems to be raising twice as much money...

You screwed up the post, but raising money is not an accurate measure of who will win.

You screwed it up too.(And apparently so did I)

[Rowan]

Negative bounce is coming for not picking Hillary.

[Rowan]

Trying to figure out the day by day totals of the tracking polls is nothing but guesswork.

You are basing assumptions off of assumptions. You are assuming that you know what the day rolling off is, in order to determine what the new day coming on is. After days upon days of guesswork, the margin of error becomes very large, thus putting those numbers in high doubt.

[Rowan]

It usually comes out around 1 PM EST.

[Rowan]

Well, I'm assuming that's the 10 point Carter bounce Gallup is referring to. Going from 29 to 39.

You're right that it's far from the same situation as this year, just pointing out that incumbent party candidates can still get big convention bounces and lead in the polls even when their party is insanely unpopular.

The thing is, neither Carter nor the Democrats were insanely unpopular at that point.  It was just a post GOP convention bounce versus the DNC bounce.

Not as unpopular as Bush, that's true. But low enough that it should've been obvious that Reagan was likely to win.

Gallup poll Carter approval ratings

Actually less popular than Bush is now, at least in terms of who'd the voter vote for.  After the RNC, it was Carter 29, Reagan 45.

Have we seen a poll of Bush v Obama? No.

Actually we have. Rasmussen did one in July. It had Obama 54%, Bush 34%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/obama_leads_bush_by_twenty_but_clinton_does_better_against_mccain

[Rowan]

Gallup releases at 1 PM EST everyday.

[Rowan]

The most hilarious thing is that McCain has eroded Obama's lead on the economy to 3-points. Ha, more of the failed same gaining ground on the economy. There's no hope whatsoever is there?

Dave

Quit your whining, it's getting old.

[Rowan]

Gallup, like Rasmussen, is proving to be way too biased in McCain's favor. I guess the only poll we can trust is Diego Hotline.

I only trust ARG.

[Rowan]

Gallup doesn't weight. They just spit out what they get, but I think it ends up being something like D+5 or so.

From the Gallup article:

"In addition, since Sept. 5 -- the first night after the Republican National Convention -- he has outpolled Obama in each of the last six individual night's polling. That consistent pattern in the night-to-night data suggests that McCain has a stable lead for now."

I agree, looks like a small McCain lead for now.

[Rowan]

Statistical noise.