Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[BlueSwan]

So, as of October 8, Obama currently leads, in tracking polls*, McCain from +1 to +11

Average lead: 6% (rounded)

* Batteground (+4), Diageo-Hotline (+1), Gallup (+11), Rasmussen (+6), Research 2000 (+10) and Zogby (+2)

Those differences are just crazy. I don't know what to conclude at the moment, but since Rasmussen sits in the middle, maybe they're on to something?

[BlueSwan]

So a small summary of Obama's leads in today's tracking polls:

Gallup: Obama +10 (-1)
Rasmussen: Obama +5 (-)
Diego/Hotline: Obama +7 (+1)
Battleground: Obama +8 (+5)
DailyKos: Obama +12 (+2)
Reuters/Zogby: Obama +4 (-)

[BlueSwan]

All of the tracking polls:

Zogby: Obama +4 (-)
Rasmussen: Obama +7 (+2)
Gallup: Obama +9 (-1)
Hotline: Obama +10 (+3)
R2000: Obama +12 (-)
Battleground: Sorry couldn't find new data for today - yesterday they had Obama +8

[BlueSwan]

My bad sir.  I guess I misunderstood, I thought you meant by "not celebrating" that you meant about your own prediction!

Right now, the gap is 9 points.  I'll be very much surprised if the gap between the two candidates decreases.

As long as the gap is at least 5 points the day before the election, I'll feel confident.

[BlueSwan]

So if we forget about DailyKos and forget about Battleground, the remaining 4 polls are remarkably close now. Rasmussen and Zogby has Obama at +6, Gallup at +7 and DiegeoHotline at +8.

[BlueSwan]

So if we forget about DailyKos and forget about Battleground, the remaining 4 polls are remarkably close now. Rasmussen and Zogby has Obama at +6, Gallup at +7 and DiegeoHotline at +8.

That's "remarkably close"?

Compared to the results of 3 or 4 days ago when some polls had Obama up a single point and others at +12 - absolutely!

[BlueSwan]

So if we forget about DailyKos and forget about Battleground, the remaining 4 polls are remarkably close now. Rasmussen and Zogby has Obama at +6, Gallup at +7 and DiegeoHotline at +8.

That's "remarkably close"?

Compared to the results of 3 or 4 days ago when some polls had Obama up a single point and others at +12 - absolutely!

And a three point range over three polls is fairly close.

Four polls. And yes indeed.

[BlueSwan]

All tracking polls for today:

Gallup: Obama +10 (+3)
Rasmussen: Obama +5 (-1)
R2000: Obama +12 (-1)
Battleground: Obama +8 (-2)
Hotline: Obama +6 (-2)
Zogby: Obama +4 (-2)

So Obama loses ground everywhere, except in Gallups poll where he gains 3 points and yet again the polls are all over the place. The only constant is that Obama leads by at least 4 points.

If Gallup only looks at likely voters Obamas lead is cut to 7 points.

[BlueSwan]

All tracking polls for today:

Gallup: Obama +10 (+3)
Rasmussen: Obama +5 (-1)
R2000: Obama +12 (-1)
Battleground: Obama +8 (-2)
Hotline: Obama +6 (-2)
Zogby: Obama +4 (-2)

So Obama loses ground everywhere, except in Gallups poll where he gains 3 points and yet again the polls are all over the place. The only constant is that Obama leads by at least 4 points.

If Gallup only looks at likely voters Obamas lead is cut to 7 points.

Battleground was unchanged.

Ooppps...my mistake!

[BlueSwan]

Tuesday 14th, 2008:

Somewhat reliable polls:
Gallup: Obama +9 (-1)
Rasmussen: Obama +5 (-)

Unreliable polls:
R2000: Obama +11 (-1)
Battleground: Obama +13 (+5)
Hotline: Obama +6 (-)
Zogby: Obama +6 (+2)

[BlueSwan]

So Obamas Gallup numbers are going up and up, and almost everywhere else they're going down. What to make of this?

[BlueSwan]

I've been disappointed with Gallup this election season. Way to much movement in the polls to be believable. I think Rasmussen is the one to go with this year - they've had the race pretty stable at 4-8 points for Obama for about a month now and that seems about right.

[BlueSwan]

Ahhhh....I love reading the daily Gallup polll. So comforting.

However, it does appear a bit strange that Obamas numbers are way better with Gallup than with any of the other trackers. Only the non-trackers have numbers that are that good for Obama (or even better).

[BlueSwan]

Gallup must be certain of what they're doing here. They're basically putting their entire reputation on the line here. If the election is close, they are gonna look like fools.

Here's hoping that they're spot on!