Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[afleitch]

That's better. It will dip next week of course. This race won't be decided for some while yet but McCain will slow and tire.

[afleitch]

Unless McCain has at least a Kerry-type game changer, I think it's over for him.

You said IIRC that the debates may sway your vote (?) How do things stand at the moment?

[afleitch]

This is starting to get too close for comfort again, at least in the national tracking polls.

don't worry, why would independents break for McCain after how erractic his campaign has been? 

I tend to hold to that. The race has seen, since Obama secured the nomination, Obama lead in the polls generally (minus the GOP convention bounce). A 5 point lead is actually pretty good when you look at the last two elections; even further back if you exclude the strong third party elections of '92 and '96. Besides with early voting, why would someone who had done so respond to the question 'who are you going to vote for'? Even if they did they might actually be lying. (see the UK exit poll of 1992)

[afleitch]

Looking at the fact that McCain can pass away any time because of his old age, seriously can we afford Sarah Palin as our President after 8 years of Bush presidency ?

That would be terrible.  We'd have someone with limited experience in national office, isular, with no executive experience ... oh, wait.

It's who a President surrounds himself while in office with that makes him bad, good or great. While it is likely that both Obama and McCain would reach across the gap and appoint from the other party, I have yet to be given any assurrance that Palin would.

[afleitch]

Now, who is right ?

Zogby ? McCain+1 ?
Rasmussen ? Obama+5 ? *
Gallup ? Obama+10/11 ?

* indicates my choice

McCain was only +1 in Zogby in a one day sample. Overall it's still Obama +5

[afleitch]

Alright... is Gallup smoking crack, or is it everybody else?

I'll have what Gallups having