Name the next three U.S. Presidents
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  Name the next three U.S. Presidents
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Author Topic: Name the next three U.S. Presidents  (Read 169896 times)
Vepres
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #250 on: July 03, 2009, 03:42:19 PM »

As for my predictions:

Mitt Romney (2013-2021)
Moderate Western Democrat (2021-2029)
Moderate libertarian Republican (2029-2033/2027)

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Mint
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« Reply #251 on: July 03, 2009, 04:15:04 PM »

Barack Obama (2009-2010)
Joe Biden (2010-2013)
Unknown Republican (2013-)

My suspicion is that the economy will collapse entirely sometime between now and 2010. We'll be racked by high crime and civil unrest culminating in Obama being assassinated. Hope I'm wrong.

Now now, don't be too optimistic here. Roll Eyes

Give me a reason to and I will be.
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #252 on: July 03, 2009, 05:15:24 PM »

Barack Obama (2009-2010)
Joe Biden (2010-2013)
Unknown Republican (2013-)

My suspicion is that the economy will collapse entirely sometime between now and 2010. We'll be racked by high crime and civil unrest culminating in Obama being assassinated. Hope I'm wrong.

The odds that a Republican would win in that scenario in 2012 are not high, though if there were an ugly Hillary-Biden Primary, possible. Given the current verbal climate, too many people would associate an assassination with elements in the Conservative movement.
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Mint
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« Reply #253 on: July 03, 2009, 05:24:52 PM »

Barack Obama (2009-2010)
Joe Biden (2010-2013)
Unknown Republican (2013-)

My suspicion is that the economy will collapse entirely sometime between now and 2010. We'll be racked by high crime and civil unrest culminating in Obama being assassinated. Hope I'm wrong.

The odds that a Republican would win in that scenario in 2012 are not high, though if there were an ugly Hillary-Biden Primary, possible. Given the current verbal climate, too many people would associate an assassination with elements in the Conservative movement.

I think that would be a factor, but when you have close to 1/4th or 1/3rd of the population out of work after about four years of promises people will be tired of the Democrats (and possibly the Republicans too). Anyway I'd give Obama about 50/50 chance of making it out of his term but I'm completely convinced now that we're heading towards something which dwarfs the Great Depression. I honestly wish I could share the optimism of 90% of this board but when China and co are moving away from the currency at the same time we're spending record amounts I really don't see this ending well.
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #254 on: July 03, 2009, 06:20:44 PM »

Barack Obama (2009-2010)
Joe Biden (2010-2013)
Unknown Republican (2013-)

My suspicion is that the economy will collapse entirely sometime between now and 2010. We'll be racked by high crime and civil unrest culminating in Obama being assassinated. Hope I'm wrong.

The odds that a Republican would win in that scenario in 2012 are not high, though if there were an ugly Hillary-Biden Primary, possible. Given the current verbal climate, too many people would associate an assassination with elements in the Conservative movement.

I think that would be a factor, but when you have close to 1/4th or 1/3rd of the population out of work after about four years of promises people will be tired of the Democrats (and possibly the Republicans too). Anyway I'd give Obama about 50/50 chance of making it out of his term but I'm completely convinced now that we're heading towards something which dwarfs the Great Depression. I honestly wish I could share the optimism of 90% of this board but when China and co are moving away from the currency at the same time we're spending record amounts I really don't see this ending well.

I doubt we will get that bad. If the US imploded to that degree it causes such critical problems for China and India that they need us. Plus the US is insulated far better than Europe. You see there are two places for money in the world: US treasuries and stocks. When stocks go down, the dollar goes up. For all this talk about inflation, the dollar has been the strongest its been in a decade during the height of the financial crisis. It is still trading 20% above where it was a year ago.

The people who are in real trouble is Europe, especially the UK which is engaging in our spending without any of the safeguards we have.
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pogo stick
JewishConservative
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« Reply #255 on: July 08, 2009, 11:48:15 AM »

Barack Obama - 2009-2017
Sarah Palin 2017-2025
John Thune 2025-current
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #256 on: July 08, 2009, 04:00:17 PM »

Barack Obama 2009-2017
Jon Huntsman 2017-2021
Hilda Solis/Kirsten Gilibrand 2021-2028

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DS0816
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« Reply #257 on: July 09, 2009, 05:12:05 PM »

There's no point to this! But what the hell…

No. 44: Barack Obama (D-Illinois)
No. 45: Claire McCaskill (D-Missouri)
No. 46: Aaron Schock (R-Illinois)
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #258 on: July 11, 2009, 11:29:50 AM »

(2017-2025) Bob McDonnell
(2025-2029) Harold Ford
(2029-2037) Meghan McCain
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liberalkid
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« Reply #259 on: July 13, 2009, 11:55:59 AM »

Romney beats Obama over the economy, picks Charlie Christ
Crist loses to Mark Warner
Warner's VP, Clinton, wins over  Jindal
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #260 on: July 14, 2009, 06:32:57 AM »

Haley Barbour (2013-2017)
Hillary Clinton (2017-2021)
Jeb Bush (2021-2029)
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #261 on: July 21, 2009, 05:25:19 PM »

Mitt Romney (2013-2021)
John Thune (2021-2029)
Unknown Western Democrat (2029-2037)
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pogo stick
JewishConservative
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« Reply #262 on: July 21, 2009, 05:29:25 PM »

Palin (2013-2021)
Herseth-Sandlin (2021-2029)
Thune (2029-??)
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #263 on: July 21, 2009, 06:01:30 PM »

Gov. Romney/Gov. Hutchison- 2013-2021
Sen. Warner/Gov. Herseth-Sandlin- 2021-2025
Gov. Becky Skillman/Sen. Tagg Romney- 2025-???
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #264 on: July 22, 2009, 03:25:07 PM »

Barack Obama, Thune, and Cuomo.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #265 on: July 23, 2009, 01:18:20 PM »

Naso, why do you keep doing this?
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Hillary 2016
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« Reply #266 on: July 27, 2009, 03:29:07 PM »

hi everyone !  im new here...

This is a tough one, but...

Barack Obama (2009-2017)
Sarah Palin (2017-2021)
Patrick Murphy (2021-2029)
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President Mitt
Giovanni
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« Reply #267 on: July 27, 2009, 03:44:16 PM »

Barack Obama (2009- 2017)
John Thune (2017- 2025)
Who the Hell Knows? (2025- Huh?)
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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #268 on: July 27, 2009, 07:48:25 PM »

Mitt Romney(2013-2021)
Charlie Crist(2021-2025)
Some Unknown Democrat(2025-2033)
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #269 on: July 29, 2009, 03:17:21 PM »

Sen. John McCain (2009-2013)
Sen. Mark Warner (2013-2021) (narrowly def. Gov. Bobby Jindal)
Fmr. Gov. Bobby Jindal (2021-?)

Certainly not certain or anything close, but I think McCain wins and Warner faces Jindal in 2012


Pigs will fly before McCain run agains
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #270 on: July 29, 2009, 03:21:33 PM »

This tread make absolutelly no sense other than just for fun

First of all, It's too earlty to predict anything

Second of all, save well-know names. They getting older and older and by 2016 (assuming Obama winning reelection) we'll rather see new names and faces, someone you'd not consider right now

Seriously, who would say in 2005 that Obama will be Bush successor. All right, many people thought aldready he may be President someday: someday, certainly not so quick.
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hcallega
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« Reply #271 on: July 29, 2009, 08:56:01 PM »

I think we can pretty safely predict a group of candidates who could plausibly win the 2012 GOP nomination:

Sarah Palin
Mike Huckabee
Mit Romney
Newt Gingrich
John Thune
Bobby Jindal
Charlie Crist
Haley Barbour

Now odds are that they will loose, if only because the GOP is in such dire straits and I think Obama's worst case scenario is something like Bush in 2004. So then the key is who gives the keynote address or who REALLY makes a scene, like if Rubio was to beat Crist for the GOP nomination in FLA. My bet would be Thune for the GOP in 2016, and lets say he faces Biden, well then he probably wins. If he faces Hillary, then its a tossup, and if he faces a popular moderate (Warner, Schweitzer, Kaine) then he prolly looses. Anyway, just for fun here is my guess

Barack Obama-D 2009-2017
John Thune-R 2017-2021
Western or Hispanic Democrat-D 2021?

I personally see Hispanics becoming the next Irish Catholics in the Dem Party, as in running the party machinery within the next 20 years.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #272 on: July 30, 2009, 04:15:54 AM »

I think we can pretty safely predict a group of candidates who could plausibly win the 2012 GOP nomination:

Sarah Palin
Mike Huckabee
Mit Romney
Newt Gingrich
John Thune
Bobby Jindal
Charlie Crist
Haley Barbour

Pawlenty should be on that list.  Way more likely than, say, Charlie Crist, who is almost certainly not running in 2012.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #273 on: July 30, 2009, 04:27:27 AM »

For reference, let's go back to Ike and from six months into the administration of each president, see where the next two future presidents were.

With respect, such an exercise doesn't really work unless you were following politics closely all those decades ago.  You write for example that it would be crazy to pick Reagan as a future president in the mid-70s because of his age.  But Dole was widely viewed as a potential 1996 candidate as early as 1992, despite the fact that no one over 70 had ever won the nomination of either major party.  So it's possible that Reagan was widely viewed as a likely challenger in 1980 years in advance.  I don't know, because I'm not old enough to have been following politics back then.

Likewise, Bush was a darkhorse possibility for Ford's VP in 1976.  It's possible that he was being discussed as a possible future presidential candidate as far back as the first year of Carter's term.  Though I don't know if he was or not, because I wasn't around then.  And people were apparently talking about Clinton as a future presidential candidate in the 1980s (though again, I'm too young to have been following politics back then, so I'm just repeating what I've read).

You're right that we are very unlikely to guess the exact circumstances under which someone becomes president in the future, but there's a very good chance that one or more of the names mentioned in this thread will someday be president.  Most recent presidents were known at least to political junkies at least 8 years in advance of them being elected.  Not GW Bush or Obama, true, they both came on the scene less than 8 years before being president.  But it's too early to say whether that's an aberration or the new normal.
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Person Man
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« Reply #274 on: July 30, 2009, 09:58:00 AM »

For reference, let's go back to Ike and from six months into the administration of each president, see where the next two future presidents were.

With respect, such an exercise doesn't really work unless you were following politics closely all those decades ago.  You write for example that it would be crazy to pick Reagan as a future president in the mid-70s because of his age.  But Dole was widely viewed as a potential 1996 candidate as early as 1992, despite the fact that no one over 70 had ever won the nomination of either major party.  So it's possible that Reagan was widely viewed as a likely challenger in 1980 years in advance.  I don't know, because I'm not old enough to have been following politics back then.

Likewise, Bush was a darkhorse possibility for Ford's VP in 1976.  It's possible that he was being discussed as a possible future presidential candidate as far back as the first year of Carter's term.  Though I don't know if he was or not, because I wasn't around then.  And people were apparently talking about Clinton as a future presidential candidate in the 1980s (though again, I'm too young to have been following politics back then, so I'm just repeating what I've read).

You're right that we are very unlikely to guess the exact circumstances under which someone becomes president in the future, but there's a very good chance that one or more of the names mentioned in this thread will someday be president.  Most recent presidents were known at least to political junkies at least 8 years in advance of them being elected.  Not GW Bush or Obama, true, they both came on the scene less than 8 years before being president.  But it's too early to say whether that's an aberration or the new normal.


Yes, it's guesswork.  I'm just trying to get into the mindset with the info I have. 

The internet has made the observance of political junkies an easier task.  In 85, 7 years before he got elected, Clinton was largely unknown until his flop of a nomination speech in 1988.  But if a place like this existed, we'd know about him as a governor in his late 30s, a strong politician from the same region as the last Democratic president.  On the other hand, six months into Reagan's first term, he was a guy who had served two years as governor of Arkansas then been voted out of office.  It seems a much less likely to predict he'd make a comeback and be the 2nd president after Reagan.  I'm just trying to guess but I assume someone like Ted Kennedy, Bill Bradley, Al Gore, Gary Hart or Joe Biden would have been a more common prediction.

Dole and Reagan are a little different in that by the time Dole was nominated Reagan was already a precedent of a president who- except the first 3 weeks of his term- was in his 70s.  And of course the game here is guess subsequent presidents so if you guessed Dole would become president in spite of his age, you'd be wrong.  Six months into Nixon's first term, Reagan was 57 and a plausible pick as the next president immediately after Nixon.  But if in 1969 -I'm speculating- you picked Reagan to be elected in 1980, I'm just assuming that would be a less likely pick to make when we'd never had a president in his 70s.  (Note how few people pick Biden or even Hillary here even with the precedent.)  Dole was the age Reagan was nominated for a 2nd term and 4 years before the election is a bit easier to pick. 

Also given the rarity of a single White House term for a party, it would have been more common to pick two terms for Nixon and if a Democrat succeeds him, two for that guy.  Actually, while no one knew Watergate would happen, given how common assassinations were in the 60s, six months into Nixon's term, it wouldn't have been unreasonable to think Nixon wouldn't finish his term (though a bit vulgar to predict it in a game perhaps.)

I think it's very likely the next president is now known to us- maybe only as a candidate in next year's elections, or maybe someone more obvious like Hillary Clinton or Mitt Romney.  As for who is elected in 2020 or 2024, it could be someone like Jindal or Gillibrand or Gabrielle Giffords or Paul Ryan.  But I think there are also very good chances it's someone who won't be elected to anything for another 5-10 years.


That's pretty much how 2008 was. Obama really was just a freshman state legislator when W. was first sworn in. Then again, John McCain was almost nominated instead of W. and appear on the ballot for his party in 2008. So. You can ask yourself this question- at the start of his forerunner's presidency, how many times was the next president actually known to the American People? In 1994, Bush took the nation by storm in the Contract On America by becoming Governor of Texas. In 1980, Herbert Walker was already the VEEP. In 1976, Reagan had been floating around forever. In 1968, very few people knew who Carter was and I am not sure that he was even a Governor yet. In 1960, Nixon was already Vice President. In 1953, JFK was in his 30s and had just gotten out of the Navy. In 1945, people already saw Eisenhower as one of the greatest statemen that America had or would ever have...both parties sought for him to join as he made the likes of Snowe or Schuler look radical....before 1945, I wonder whether people thought that FDR would ever leave..
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