Barack Obama (2009-2010)
Joe Biden (2010-2013)
Unknown Republican (2013-)
My suspicion is that the economy will collapse entirely sometime between now and 2010. We'll be racked by high crime and civil unrest culminating in Obama being assassinated. Hope I'm wrong.
The odds that a Republican would win in that scenario in 2012 are not high, though if there were an ugly Hillary-Biden Primary, possible. Given the current verbal climate, too many people would associate an assassination with elements in the Conservative movement.
I think that would be a factor, but when you have close to 1/4th or 1/3rd of the population out of work after about four years of promises people will be tired of the Democrats (and possibly the Republicans too). Anyway I'd give Obama about 50/50 chance of making it out of his term but I'm completely convinced now that we're heading towards something which dwarfs the Great Depression. I honestly wish I could share the optimism of 90% of this board but when China and co are moving away from the currency at the same time we're spending record amounts I really don't see this ending well.
I doubt we will get that bad. If the US imploded to that degree it causes such critical problems for China and India that they need us. Plus the US is insulated far better than Europe. You see there are two places for money in the world: US treasuries and stocks. When stocks go down, the dollar goes up. For all this talk about inflation, the dollar has been the strongest its been in a decade during the height of the financial crisis. It is still trading 20% above where it was a year ago.
The people who are in real trouble is Europe, especially the UK which is engaging in our spending without any of the safeguards we have.
