Which of these Southern states will Obama do the best in?
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  Which of these Southern states will Obama do the best in?
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Poll
Question: Which of these Southern states will Obama do the best in?
#1
South Carolina
 
#2
Georgia
 
#3
Mississippi
 
#4
Louisiana
 
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Total Voters: 46

Author Topic: Which of these Southern states will Obama do the best in?  (Read 1857 times)
Aizen
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« on: June 08, 2008, 11:19:42 PM »

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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #1 on: June 08, 2008, 11:20:28 PM »

Are we not counting Florida as southern?
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Alcon
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« Reply #2 on: June 08, 2008, 11:22:29 PM »


He said "these Southern states," not "the," so I don't think there's any grammatical demand for all-inclusiveness.

Demographically, should be Georgia.  Polling-wise, seems to be South Carolina.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #3 on: June 08, 2008, 11:24:12 PM »

Georgia or Louisiana
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #4 on: June 08, 2008, 11:26:59 PM »

louisiana...even the de-blacked louisiana.

i dont think obama will do well at all in georgia.  those atlanta suburbs are some of the fastest growing areas in the nation...combine that with the north georgia mountains....ugly.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #5 on: June 08, 2008, 11:28:23 PM »


He said "these Southern states," not "the," so I don't think there's any grammatical demand for all-inclusiveness.


Oh, my apologies.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #6 on: June 08, 2008, 11:37:53 PM »

Probably South Carolina. Georgia seems to be trending more Republican than Democrat.
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Albus Dumbledore
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« Reply #7 on: June 08, 2008, 11:52:59 PM »

South Carolina since Hurricane Katrina reduced Louisiana's black population(them ending up in FEMA refugee camps/scattered around cities) by a significant amount.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #8 on: June 09, 2008, 01:30:41 AM »

GA probably... it's too early to say with any level of certainty.
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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #9 on: June 09, 2008, 05:23:37 AM »

My predictions:

SOUTH CAROLINA PRESIDENT -
54% (R) McCain
45% (D) Obama


GEORGIA PRESIDENT -
55% (R) McCain
43% (D) Obama


MISSISSIPPI PRESIDENT -
55% (R) McCain
43% (D) Obama


LOUISIANA PRESIDENT -
56% (R) McCain
42% (D) Obama

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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #10 on: June 09, 2008, 07:27:03 AM »

Georgia.
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Albus Dumbledore
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« Reply #11 on: June 09, 2008, 08:54:27 AM »

GA probably... it's too early to say with any level of certainty.
Why Georgia and not South Carolina. South Carolina last time I checked had more people from the north moving in so..
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Franzl
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« Reply #12 on: June 09, 2008, 08:55:57 AM »

How much of the white vote do you think Obama will get in Mississippi?

Didn't Kerry only get like 14%?
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Albus Dumbledore
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« Reply #13 on: June 09, 2008, 08:56:46 AM »

Obama couldn't do any worse than Kerry. Breaking 20% is possible if he plays his cards right.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #14 on: June 09, 2008, 08:57:59 AM »

How much of the white vote do you think Obama will get in Mississippi?

Didn't Kerry only get like 14%?


Interesting article in the New York Times about how high gas prices are crippling people in rural areas in a way people who live in places with higher incomes and shorter drives can't appreciate. Gas prices in the Delta are 90% of what they are in the northeast, but incomes are much lower.

It's going to take a lot to convince people that evil gays are the most important issue to vote on this year. And even though the Democrats can't do much if anything to lower prices, they'll benefit from some voter anger either through people switching or not voting at all.
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Franzl
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« Reply #15 on: June 09, 2008, 08:59:21 AM »

Obama couldn't do any worse than Kerry. Breaking 20% is possible if he plays his cards right.

I think he could do worse than Kerry, to be honest. He, at least, had the advantage of being white, which I believe is quite important in Mississippi.
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Albus Dumbledore
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« Reply #16 on: June 09, 2008, 09:02:15 AM »

That could be true but look at these factors in Obama's favor: Obama being likable and not entirely wooden, his not being from a new england urban area and his attempts to cast himself a uniter and not a divider. All this doesn't mean the state's in play it just means he loses it by 55-60% and not 60-65%.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #17 on: June 09, 2008, 09:09:24 AM »

I think he could do worse than Kerry, to be honest. He, at least, had the advantage of being white, which I believe is quite important in Mississippi.

I have to question how important it is to that last 14%, and how many of the 86% would never vote for a black candidate and haven't changed their minds on which party should run the government since 2004.

I think that 86% is so high and Bush hit such a sweet spot for conservative southern whites in 2004 that it can't be presumed as a floor for McCain. I think a lot of people have been making that presumption about the South.
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Albus Dumbledore
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« Reply #18 on: June 09, 2008, 09:10:52 AM »

McCain lacks Bush's well-polished and fine tuned air of folksiness so obviously he won't do as well as Bush. However, this doesn't mean the south will be painted blue on election night it just means closer margins.
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TomC
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« Reply #19 on: June 09, 2008, 09:28:08 AM »

I think Georgia which has a major city might see some Dem improvement. Not that Obama will take it.

And if we're talkng about margin here as opposed to overall percentage, Barr might score a few extra percentage points in his home state, narrowing the gap between Obama and McCain a bit.
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opebo
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« Reply #20 on: June 09, 2008, 09:54:07 AM »

I saw that article, britain.  Of course those people who literally cannot afford to drive to work are also non-voters...
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Albus Dumbledore
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« Reply #21 on: June 09, 2008, 09:57:09 AM »

If Barr does as well as Perot(unlikely but let me have my fun) Obama winning Louisiana isn't out of the question.
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Kushahontas
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« Reply #22 on: June 09, 2008, 11:33:03 AM »

i say south carolina, georgia could be interesting though and for some strange reason that goes against any and every political calculation i've been able to come up with, i have a very very weird feeling about mississippi
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GPORTER
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« Reply #23 on: June 09, 2008, 11:51:16 AM »

South Carolina.
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Albus Dumbledore
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« Reply #24 on: June 09, 2008, 11:57:07 AM »

i say south carolina, georgia could be interesting though and for some strange reason that goes against any and every political calculation i've been able to come up with, i have a very very weird feeling about mississippi
Why Mississippi?
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