NC: Rasmussen: McCain leads by 2

[Verily]

Interesting. When I heard there'd be another NC poll today, I expected McCain's margin to be up substantially from the last poll (taken right after the NC primary, with McCain up only 3). Now it's down!? Like Alcon said: Virginia, Virginia, Virginia!

[Verily]

My point was that the previous poll came right after the NC primary--and we've seen big boosts for Obama [and Clinton] after each of the primaries only to fade away later (think Texas). Yes, I did expect this one to move towards McCain against the grain of most of the polls.

[Verily]

McCain will win North Carolina, but he'll have to spend a lot of time and money there.

allow me to mark this down.

Please do.

The problem is that McCain will definitely not spend money in NC. If he's lost or really close to losing in NC, he's already lost the election elsewhere. So, in the event of an Obama landslide, McCain has to keep spending in must-win states like Virginia, Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania even if North Carolina and Florida are threatening to vote for Obama. (Thus, in landslide elections like 1984, the states which swing least strongly are the states that both candidates needed to win in order to win the EV while safe states on both sides swing more strongly.)