NC will be in play of Obama wins nationally by 8% or more. Remember that Bush and Kerry were polling around these margins in the summer of 2004, and NC went to Bush by 13% in November. Obama will not improve on Kerry's white numbers, so I don't think he has a huge chance there outside of a big national margin.
I think Obama will improve on white voters, but not by much. He will get 30% to 31%.
Highly, highly doubt he will do better than Kerry's 27% .. I expect him to get 25-27% in North Carolina and receive record amounts of black support. North Carolina is GOP +8% this cycle as of now, so if McCain wins the election NC will go 10% or more for him. Keep in mind most of NC's undecideds will break for the Republican candidate over the Democrat. In June, Bush lead Kerry by 6-7%, Kerry was within 3% in July, and within 3% in one poll again in October. NC polls closer than is really is, so many of you are getting excited right now for no reason barring an Obama landslide.
Obama will get at least 30% of the white voters, the voting block in NC has changed over the past 4 year. Alot of Northern whites have moved down from up north. Also in Nov, college students will be in school which will help him too. (Can out of state college students vote in NC?) Anyways if they can it will help him out too. I'm not saying Obama will win, but I right now think will be 5% more republican then the national number.
