Bush is slipping in Florida!

[MarkDel]

Zachman,

I live in Florida and I'm telling you there is NO WAY IN HELL that Florida becomes like California as it "grows"

The immigration into California (population gain) is almost strictly vertical...Mexicans. The other "new Californians" are a small number of people who come there because they like the culture in that state.

In Florida, the population gain is vertical and horizontal. There is a large amount of Latin American immigrants, but unlike Mexican immigrants in California, the newcomers from places like Cuba, Panama, Nicaragua, etc...are not automatically converted into slavish Democratic Party voters.

Also, the "horizontal" immigration here comes largely from the Northeast and Midwest, but also an ever increasing number of Upper South immigrants from places like Tennessee, Kentucky, Mississippi and Alabama, and the Upper South newcomers settle almost exclusively in the newly devloped areas of the West and Central parts of Florida. And so much of the US-based migration to Florida is based on the fact that this state has NO STATE INCOME TAX and almost no union presence, hence it is highly friendly to business. This attracts voters who are far more likely to vote Republican.

Arizona and Nevada have a better chance of turning into the next California than Florida...and it aint even close.

[California Dreamer]

I think that Florida will still be a tossup

Although Bush has the edge being the incumbant and with his brother Kerry has some advantages:
- strong anger in the Democratic base
- less of a Nader factor
- Muslim voters changing sides (80% of FL muslims went Bush)
- more scrutiny on voter registration (no Katherine Harris removing people from the roles this time)

in the end I think it will come down to turnout

...if there were some Democrat that could deliver Florida then you could be sure he would be on the ticket (but I am not sure that there is any Dem that can)

[MarkDel]

California Dreamer,

You make some good points. You were right about:

1. The Democratic Base IS angry and will work very hard in Florida.

2. Nader will not be a major factor even if he runs again.

3. Muslim voters will definitely swing towards the Democrats.

4. Turnout will be critical.

However, you are wayyyyy off base with the Katherine Harris comment. If the 2002 Election in Florida marked by Republican landslides should have taught you Democrats anything, it's that people in this state do not blame Katherine Harris or Jeb Bush for the 2000 fiasco. Sure, hardcore Democrats do, but the average voter here...no way. The LASTING IMAGE OF THE 2000 ELECTION FOR AVERAGE VOTERS HERE IS NOT HARRIS OR BUSH, IT'S DEMOCRATIC PARTY OFFICIALS IN PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTIES HOLDING UP INDIVIDUAL BALLOTS LOOKING FOR 'DENTED CHADS' TO GIVE MORE VOTES TO GORE. AND IT'S LAWSUIT AFTER LAWSUIT FILED BY THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY...ESPECIALLY THE ONES TO DISQUALIFY ABSENTEE MILITARY BALLOTS.

Sorry, but this is the reality in Florida...if you want to win Florida in 2004, you Democrats need to shut up about 2000.

[California Dreamer]

I am not talking about the recount fiasco....although having the Secretary of State making decisions while she was part of one of the candidates campaigns was very dubious.

I am talking about the people removed from the voting roles entirely. Various reports have shown that there was overzelous removal of valid registered voters which disproportionately effected Democrats negatively

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/onpolitics/transcripts/ccrdraft060401.htm

[MarkDel]

California Dreamer,

Yes, I'm aware of the "completely objective" report issued by the Commission on Civil Rights. That's one of the more ridiculous documents I have ever read. Did you actually read it? In one section, they talk about African Americans being disenfranchised by the fact that they were "challenged" at a rate far more frequent than Hispanic voters, using that as proof of bias against African Americans. Then later in the report, they contradict that theory by claiming Hispanic voters were disenfranchised because of English only polling places. You can't have it both ways and this ridiculous report is merely a regurgitation of every "worst case" scenario that Liberals could dream up about the disenfranchisement of "their" constituency. But at least I give you credit for citing a quasi-credible news source to back up your point, that's a lot more than most of the Dems do on this site.

[© tweed]

California Dreamer,

Nice Signature!

[Gustaf]

Gustaf's maps:

The first one doesn't look that far out, except for TN it's a possible result. The confidence map is weird, though...

Read my explanatory posts on this thread.