Obama and NC.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Right now in the polls Obama is getting 32% of the white voters and McCain is getting close to 55% of the white voters. Could Obama get 32% of the white voters in Nov?

[Aizen]

Nope

[Josh/Devilman88]

Nope

Care to say why you think he can't?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Oh God.

Look, these polls, especially the summer ones, have all kinds of internal screw ups. McCain gets like 20% of the black vote in NC in the polls released. Does that mean that he'll get 20% of the black vote in NC in November? Obama won't improve on Kerry's white vote numbers because Edwards is not on the ticket and the old, white Dixiecrats who still vote Dem will not vote for a black guy. It just isn't going to happen.

[Aizen]

Nope

Care to say why you think he can't?

Nope

[Josh/Devilman88]

Oh God.

Look, these polls, especially the summer ones, have all kinds of internal screw ups. McCain gets like 20% of the black vote in NC in the polls released. Does that mean that he'll get 20% of the black vote in NC in November? Obama won't improve on Kerry's white vote numbers because Edwards is not on the ticket and the old, white Dixiecrats who still vote Dem will not vote for a black guy. It just isn't going to happen.

Yea, but you have new voters voting this year. Kids my age, 20.. who didn't get to vote in 2004, who would vote for a black guy. Plus you have the new comers to the state from NY, NJ, MI ect who would also vote for a black guy. I am not saying he will get 32%, but I do think  he will do better then Kerry's 27%.

[agcatter]

It's 4 months away.  Obama will do better than Kerry.  I'm going to say McCain will win by 5 or 6.  Obama is not going to completely wipe out a 13 pt gap from 2004.

He won the Democratic Primary and CNN and MSNBC went woohoo.  It was a primary where the black vote was something like 35 or 40% of the vote.  This is the general election.  That % drops considerably.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Oh God.

Look, these polls, especially the summer ones, have all kinds of internal screw ups. McCain gets like 20% of the black vote in NC in the polls released. Does that mean that he'll get 20% of the black vote in NC in November? Obama won't improve on Kerry's white vote numbers because Edwards is not on the ticket and the old, white Dixiecrats who still vote Dem will not vote for a black guy. It just isn't going to happen.

Yea, but you have new voters voting this year. Kids my age, 20.. who didn't get to vote in 2004, who would vote for a black guy. Plus you have the new comers to the state from NY, NJ, MI ect who would also vote for a black guy. I am not saying he will get 32%, but I do think  he will do better then Kerry's 27%.

And in 2004 we had millions of kids who could vote for the first time, 20 years old, and they didn't bother turning out. This is the case every time. Just because there are people fainting over Obama's message of hope and change and the call for a new kind of politics, doesn't mean these kids your age will turnout. They never have in the past.

[Lief 🗽]

Oh God.

Look, these polls, especially the summer ones, have all kinds of internal screw ups. McCain gets like 20% of the black vote in NC in the polls released. Does that mean that he'll get 20% of the black vote in NC in November? Obama won't improve on Kerry's white vote numbers because Edwards is not on the ticket and the old, white Dixiecrats who still vote Dem will not vote for a black guy. It just isn't going to happen.

Yea, but you have new voters voting this year. Kids my age, 20.. who didn't get to vote in 2004, who would vote for a black guy. Plus you have the new comers to the state from NY, NJ, MI ect who would also vote for a black guy. I am not saying he will get 32%, but I do think  he will do better then Kerry's 27%.

And in 2004 we had millions of kids who could vote for the first time, 20 years old, and they didn't bother turning out. This is the case every time. Just because there are people fainting over Obama's message of hope and change and the call for a new kind of politics, doesn't mean these kids your age will turnout. They never have in the past.

Yeah, until they did in Iowa and every primary and caucus after that.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Oh God.

Look, these polls, especially the summer ones, have all kinds of internal screw ups. McCain gets like 20% of the black vote in NC in the polls released. Does that mean that he'll get 20% of the black vote in NC in November? Obama won't improve on Kerry's white vote numbers because Edwards is not on the ticket and the old, white Dixiecrats who still vote Dem will not vote for a black guy. It just isn't going to happen.

Yea, but you have new voters voting this year. Kids my age, 20.. who didn't get to vote in 2004, who would vote for a black guy. Plus you have the new comers to the state from NY, NJ, MI ect who would also vote for a black guy. I am not saying he will get 32%, but I do think  he will do better then Kerry's 27%.

And in 2004 we had millions of kids who could vote for the first time, 20 years old, and they didn't bother turning out. This is the case every time. Just because there are people fainting over Obama's message of hope and change and the call for a new kind of politics, doesn't mean these kids your age will turnout. They never have in the past.

They did in the primary, so why wouldn't they for the GE!? Plus Kerry was a sucky candidate. BTW I just show another Obama ad

[NOVA Green]

Oh God.

Look, these polls, especially the summer ones, have all kinds of internal screw ups. McCain gets like 20% of the black vote in NC in the polls released. Does that mean that he'll get 20% of the black vote in NC in November? Obama won't improve on Kerry's white vote numbers because Edwards is not on the ticket and the old, white Dixiecrats who still vote Dem will not vote for a black guy. It just isn't going to happen.

Once again, I think the theme of racist voting patterns is overplayed... NC is an extremely economically vibrant state with a fast population growth rate, many of those professionals and working-class folks from Northern states. The climate is nationally extremely bad for Republicans compared to '08, and NC whites are not some monolithic entity of stereotypical NASCAR dads with confederate flag bumper stickers.

Is it totally unreasonable to think that Obama might be able to slightly improve on the Kerry 27% White vote?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Oh God.

Look, these polls, especially the summer ones, have all kinds of internal screw ups. McCain gets like 20% of the black vote in NC in the polls released. Does that mean that he'll get 20% of the black vote in NC in November? Obama won't improve on Kerry's white vote numbers because Edwards is not on the ticket and the old, white Dixiecrats who still vote Dem will not vote for a black guy. It just isn't going to happen.

Once again, I think the theme of racist voting patterns is overplayed... NC is an extremely economically vibrant state with a fast population growth rate, many of those professionals and working-class folks from Northern states. The climate is nationally extremely bad for Republicans compared to '08, and NC whites are not some monolithic entity of stereotypical NASCAR dads with confederate flag bumper stickers.

Is it totally unreasonable to think that Obama might be able to slightly improve on the Kerry 27% White vote?

No, assuming the GOP vote is lower than in 2004 .. Obama could get more than 27%, but that would be quite a feat. I would be surprised to see that. NC is a tale of two states. One state is the old southerners who do have the confederate flags flying and declare they'll never vote for a black man, and then there's the young crowd and the transplants from the Northeast who would.

I will stand by my prediction that NC will be GOP +8 this cycle, a 3% trend towards the Democrats from 2004. Obama will not win NC if he wins nationally by 6%, but it would be very close.

[Sam Spade]

People have theories and everything as to what will happen in NC.  Me - I have no clue - guessing from polls conducted in June is rather useless.

But I do like to reminisce...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=3553.0

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=4109.0

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=4200.0

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=4787.0

Funny that Smash hasn't changed one bit from his ultra-hack self.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Josh clean the sheets please, NC is not going for Obama

[DownWithTheLeft]

People have theories and everything as to what will happen in NC.  Me - I have no clue - guessing from polls conducted in June is rather useless.

But I do like to reminisce...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=3553.0

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=4109.0

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=4200.0

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=4787.0

Funny that Smash hasn't changed one bit from his ultra-hack self.

The last one is obvious, but I didn't know Josh was spewing this crap back then, I thought he was still "Josh4Bush"

[Sam Spade]

Of course he was for Bush back then.

and then wasn't for Bush....

and then was for Bush....

and then wasn't for Bush....

and then was for Bush....



























and then wasn't for Bush....









































and then was for Bush....














































Get the picture.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

A lot of those old threads made me laugh.

[NOVA Green]

You guys are making me feel like a Newbie can't get on this board without having to worry that my comments are going to get pulled up in four years to be publicly ridiculed

[Sam Spade]

You guys are making me feel like a Newbie can't get on this board without having to worry that my comments are going to get pulled up in four years to be publicly ridiculed

So long as you don't act like Josh22 and have a "leadership conference" problem, nothing will happen.

And even then, the little post above took me maybe about 5 minutes to find on the forum by just going through the 2004 polls section.  I doubt 2008 will be so easy.

[War on Want]

I'm actually beginning to think McCain could outperform Bush relative to whatever the national average will be this year.  I'll elaborate in the morning.  I know you guys will all be glued to the computer screen until then.

If I can, stupid founding fathers making election day on a Tuesday . I think my parents actually will let me stay up all night if the election is anywhere near close.

[Thomas Jackson]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Think of the chorus to Vince McMahon's WWE entrance music, and you'll have your answer.

[Josh/Devilman88]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Think of the chorus to Vince McMahon's WWE entrance music, and you'll have your answer.

I'm sorry I don't watch WWE. Anyways, what makes me mad is people say NC is strongly for McCain, but in fact it isn't. McCain isn't well liked at all, most people will vote for McCain just because he is a republican and they don't want to see a Democrat in office. Then you have the ones who would normaly vote Republican who will not come out at all. But on the Obama side you have people like the black and younger voters who will come out in hugh numbers. Also NC has the one stop voting where people can vote early and reg. to vote. That help Obama out alot in the primary, and I am sure it will help in the GE too.

[Brittain33]

And in 2004 we had millions of kids who could vote for the first time, 20 years old, and they didn't bother turning out.

Wrong. They did turn out in large numbers in 2004 and 2006. What happened in 2004 was that middle-aged people and older conservatives ALSO upped their turnout by large numbers, neutralizing the gains among young people. If the Republican electorate (which skews older) isn't as energized because McCain isn't as great a candidate as Bush was, while the Democratic electorate is energized, the youth gap makes a difference.

[Thomas Jackson]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYv76sLKXY4

[DownWithTheLeft]

LOL, I stumbled across a thread from 2004 from Josh insists relentlessly that NJ will vote for Bush

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=3839.0