I honestly don't know what to think of the GOP VP picks anymore
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  I honestly don't know what to think of the GOP VP picks anymore
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Author Topic: I honestly don't know what to think of the GOP VP picks anymore  (Read 1168 times)
Ronnie
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« on: July 03, 2008, 12:17:22 AM »

Some either hurt one base in terms of voting and help with another (eg. Romney and Huckabee), and others don't really add anything at all electorally or strategically (eg. Jindal, Palin, Sanford, etc.).

Are there ANY candidates that help McCain in any way whatsoever, without alienating part of the GOP base or independents?


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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #1 on: July 03, 2008, 12:23:36 AM »

Mark Sanford is probably the safest pick McCain could make. He doesn't really tick off anyone and rallies some of the base. Jindal is too extreme, and Palin is too inexperienced. Romney would tick off people like me, and Huckabee's religious views may turn off some. However, he's a great communicator, and I don't think he'd be a terrible pick. He may turn off independents, though.

McCain could pick Lieberman and present voters with a truly bipartisan ticket. He really needs to make a splash with his pick, and playing it safe may not be the best move considering he's down right now. A Liberman pick could be an attempt to salvage his maverick image and hit back at Obama who claims to transcend party lines  by showing that it is McCain who is trying to transcend party lines. This move could, however, turn off a lot of the base who may still not like Lieberman, and he is very liberal on every other issue outside of the War and national security.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #2 on: July 03, 2008, 12:31:10 AM »

Sanford is pretty meh to me, since I can't imagine he would sway any votes.  He doesn't have the inner flare of someone like, say, Mark Warner of Virginia.

Lieberman is a big no no, since I guarantee you social conservatives will turn out in smaller numbers than in '04.  He will definitely help with the Jewish vote, but I think getting a state like PA, which has a significant Jewish base, is a lost cause.  I really doubt that Lieberman, in the end, will be a net positive to McCain, as he runs the risk of lower turnout from conservatives.
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Lunar
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« Reply #3 on: July 03, 2008, 12:39:49 AM »

I don't think Thune, Portman, etc. necessarily hurt with independents if they have at least a half-decent PR team.  I mean, anyone can be cast as unacceptable by Obama's machine  if not handled properly.

There's no perfect choice for either candidate that 100% satisfies the base and 100% satisfies moderates, naturally.  McCain, as a historical moderate (at least publicly) in need of his base at the moment, faces a much more difficult decision than Obama.
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ComradeCarter
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« Reply #4 on: July 03, 2008, 12:42:23 AM »

He should pick (drumroll please)... Hillary Clinton!
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5 on: July 03, 2008, 01:03:44 AM »

McCain has a terrible choice in front of him, no doubt about it.
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Lunar
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« Reply #6 on: July 03, 2008, 01:15:38 AM »

McCain has a terrible choice in front of him, no doubt about it.

I think both McCain and Obama have powerful forces in their party pushing for choices that they personally detest and could alienate the swing voters they hope to capture with their messages.

Are these standard political contradictions that we tend to exaggerate?  Meeeehbee
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MatthewZD
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« Reply #7 on: July 03, 2008, 04:36:16 AM »

Both have interesting things to consider about their VP choices.

McCain's may be the most interesting and difficult.  He already appeals to moderates himself, so he needs to shore up the GOP base with someone who won't turn off moderates.  He also needs someone with expertise in economic matters, one area where he appears weak.  McCain also needs someone young and energetic who doesn't make him appear too old yet also has enough experience to exude confidence in the American people if something should happen to him.

Not too tall of an order, now is it?

Obama has the Democratic base energized and also some appeal to moderates.  Thing is, he needs someone to strengthen the appeal to moderates, experience to balance against his relative short time on the national stage, and experience in foreign policy and military matters.  Oh, and someone from the south would be helpful, since the last two Democrats elected President were from the south and northern liberals haven't faired well there in recent years.     

Now, who fits both sets of criteria? 
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HardRCafé
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« Reply #8 on: July 03, 2008, 04:52:54 AM »

I know someone in Minnesota who says Tom Pawlenty will totally deliver this swing state to Jon McCain.  It has got to be Pawlenty because Minnesota lies in the balance!
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SPQR
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« Reply #9 on: July 03, 2008, 05:06:15 AM »

I know someone in Minnesota who says Tom Pawlenty will totally deliver this swing state to Jon McCain.  It has got to be Pawlenty because Minnesota lies in the balance!
And Wisconsin...remember the "WOW THE VP IS FROM A STATE CLOSE TO MINE I'LL VOTE VOTE FOR X CANDIDATE" effect.
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HardRCafé
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« Reply #10 on: July 03, 2008, 05:07:54 AM »

Good point!  He might even carry Ontario.
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Lunar
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« Reply #11 on: July 03, 2008, 07:58:24 AM »

I know someone in Minnesota who says Tom Pawlenty will totally deliver this swing state to Jon McCain.  It has got to be Pawlenty because Minnesota lies in the balance!
And Wisconsin...remember the "WOW THE VP IS FROM A STATE CLOSE TO MINE I'LL VOTE VOTE FOR X CANDIDATE" effect.

That overpowers "the opposing candidate is from the neighboring state" effect, right?  VP Pawlenty > Illinois Obama. 

Dare I suggest the double-neighboring state effect?  All sates which neighbor a neighboring state of a vice-presidential candidate are hearby considered safe or swing states.  Illinois better watch out for the PAWLENTY TRAIN.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #12 on: July 03, 2008, 09:41:15 AM »

Good point!  He might even carry Ontario.

I think he would also carry Lake Superior.
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