Verily
Cuivienen
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Posts: 16,663
Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78
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« Reply #1 on: July 10, 2008, 04:05:09 PM » |
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Polling's been sparse for both states. The one time both were polled at the same time was SUSA way back in late February, when Obama led by 4 in North Dakota and trailed by four in South Dakota. SUSA has not done a poll of either state since then. Rasmussen had McCain leading by ten in South Dakota in March, but that was also during the Wright scandal, and there was no poll of North Dakota at the time. There was also a useless university poll with huge undecideds that had Obama running better in ND.
The conventional wisdom seems to have settled on North Dakota being much more favorable to Obama than South Dakota. I am not going to deny that this may well be true, but the evidence for it is shaky at best. If Rasmussen were to poll South Dakota tomorrow and find, say, an eight-point McCain lead, I wouldn't be surprised in the least, but I think it at least reasonably possible that such a poll would turn up a two-point Obama lead. There just don't appear to be any factors--at all--which would suggest North Dakota as more favorable to Obama than South Dakota in terms of demographics or voting patterns unless a Canadian infiltration of North Dakota is the prelude to invasion.
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