Which states will shift Republican over the next few decades?

[Nichlemn]

The Simpsons says it well:

Disco Stu: "Did you know that disco record sales were up 400% for the year ending 1976? If these trends continues... AAY!"

[Person Man]

Grey- expect political stability
Red- Trend D
Blue- Trend R

Utah

Yeah. Utah. Its just a drop in the bucket now, but in a couple of decades we will see Utah become at least more like Montana (the Democrats become a strong, but permanent minority) and then like Colorado (a balance between a tenuous political machine and an emerging majority opposition). Salt Lake at least is beginning to feel like a big city and more and more non-mormons are staying.

[Dgov]

Grey- expect political stability
Red- Trend D
Blue- Trend R

Utah

Yeah. Utah. Its just a drop in the bucket now, but in a couple of decades we will see Utah become at least more like Montana (the Democrats become a strong, but permanent minority) and then like Colorado (a balance between a tenuous political machine and an emerging majority opposition). Salt Lake at least is beginning to feel like a big city and more and more non-mormons are staying.

I don't think so--It'll probably shift more into a Kansas-like state rather than a truly competitive one.  One of the reasons the Democrats can even nominally compete there is because non-Mormons vote like 80% Democrat, and as the state expands and picks up more Republican non-mormons, the LDS church's dominance of the State Republican party will decrease. Once that happens, I think the current religion-dominated political alignment will break down somewhat, leading to a more traditional Sparsely-populated state voting pattern.

[Person Man]

Well, yeah...if the state stops growing. Eventually it will probably no less liberal or conservative for a state of its size or density. I take it you mean "a truly conservative state" as a state that consistently votes more Republican than other states with its urban/rural numbers. I guess that would make Florida a "truly conservative state" for being so big and stubbornly Republican, despite everything the GOP does to mess up or any demographic change that happens. ...or at least by not "truly conservative" you mean it won't be conservative because it is mormon.   

[5280]

Grey- expect political stability
Red- Trend D
Blue- Trend R

Tell me how Illinois shifts Republican when you have a huge city like Chicago that's dominated by Democrats? I can see Wisconsin and Minnesota shifting Republican in a few decades.

[Dgov]

Grey- expect political stability
Red- Trend D
Blue- Trend R

Tell me how Illinois shifts Republican when you have a huge city like Chicago that's dominated by Democrats? I can see Wisconsin and Minnesota shifting Republican in a few decades.

Chicago's losing population, and the political center of gravity is moving more towards the collar counties.

[freepcrusher]

yeah but the collar counties aren't really trending republican. While they are republican for the local offices, it is marginal/swing territory in national races.

[Dgov]

yeah but the collar counties aren't really trending republican. While they are republican for the local offices, it is marginal/swing territory in national races.

marginal/Swing is much better than 70-80% Democratic Cook County.

[Nichlemn]

Also, according to Democratic bulls here, almost every demographic change is good for Democrats. So long as Illinois has less of that than average, it will trend (Atlas definition) Republican.

[yougo1000]

Illinois, Wisconsin, and michigan