JLT's House Predictions: Final Version, No For Real This Time

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Several changes to my list:


AK-AL moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Republican
AZ-05 dropped from list
AZ-08 dropped from list
CO-04 moved to Pure Tossup from Likely Republican
CT-05 dropped from list
FL-16 moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
FL-21 added to list at Lean Republican
FL-24 moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican
IL-14 moved to Likely Democratic from Lean Democratic
KS-02 moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
MI-09 moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican
MS-01 moved to Democrats on the Horizon from Likely Democratic
WA-08 moved to Lean Republican from Republican-Leaning Tossup

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Many updates, not that anyone cares:

AK-AL - moved to Lean Democratic from Pure Tossup
CT-04 - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Leans Republican
FL-16 - moved to Lean Democratic from Democratic-Leaning Tossup
FL-24 - moved to Pure Tossup from Leans Republican
GA-08 - moved to Democrats on the Horizon from Likely Democratic
IL-14 - moved to Democrats on the Horizon from Likely Democratic
LA-06 - moved to Pure Tossup from Republican-Leaning Tossup
MS-01 - dropped from list
NH-01 - moved to Pure Tossup from Democratic-Leaning Tossup
NY-13 - moved to Likely Democratic from Lean Democratic
NY-20 - dropped from list
NY-26 - moved to Republicans on the Horizon from Likely Republican
OH-01 - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Likely Republican
OH-15 - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
OH-16 - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
PA-11 - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic
TX-23 - dropped from list

[HappyWarrior]

What does on the horizon mean again? lol.  I'm very interested in my state's district 1 race.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

What does on the horizon mean again? lol.  I'm very interested in my state's district 1 race.

It means I don't expect it to end up being close, but there's a sliver of a chance of it being competitive. I'm very skeptical of MD-01; I grew up on the Eastern Shore and I know how culturally conservative the place is.

[HappyWarrior]

What does on the horizon mean again? lol.  I'm very interested in my state's district 1 race.

It means I don't expect it to end up being close, but there's a sliver of a chance of it being competitive. I'm very skeptical of MD-01; I grew up on the Eastern Shore and I know how culturally conservative the place is.

Yea but I'm really hoping that a moderate Democratic challenger coupled with a far right Republican and the endorsement of the outgoing Republican Congressman for the Democrat could give Kravotil a shot.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The list, she is updated:

CO-04 - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
FL-08 - added to list at Likely Republican
FL-16 - moved to Lean Republican from Lean Democratic
FL-21 - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Lean Republican
FL-25 - added to list at Likely Republican
IL-10 - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Lean Republican
KY-02 - moved to Lean Republican from Republicans on the Horizon
LA-06 - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
MD-01 - moved to Likely Republican from Republicans on the Horizon
MI-07 - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Republican-Leaning Tossup
MI-09 - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Republican
NJ-03 - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic
NM-01 - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Republican-Leaning Tossup
NM-02 - moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican
NC-08 - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Lean Republican
NY-29 - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Republican
PA-03 - added to list at Democratic-Leaning Tossup
PA-04 - moved to Likely Democratic from Lean Democratic
PA-10 - moved to Lean Democratic from Democratic-Leaning Tossup
TX-22 - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Lean Republican
WI-08 - moved to Likely Democratic from Lean Democratic

[JohnnyLongtorso]

AK-AL - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Lean Democratic
CA-11 - dropped from list
CT-04 - moved to Pure Tossup from Republican-Leaning Tossup
FL-08 - dropped from list
FL-16 - moved to Likely Republican from Lean Republican
FL-24 - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
FL-25 - moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican
GA-08 - dropped from list
ID-01 - moved to Likely Republican from Republicans on the Horizon
IL-14 - droped from list
IN-09 - dropped from list
KY-02 - moved to Likely Republican from Lean Republican
KY-03 - dropped from list
LA-04 - dropped from list (December election)
MO-06 - dropped from list
MO-09 - moved to Likely Republican from Republicans on the Horizon
NV-03 - moved to Pure Tossup from Republican-Leaning Tossup
NY-26 - dropped from list
OH-02 - dropped from list
OH-16 - moved to Lean Democratic from Democratic-Leaning Tossup
OR-05 - dropped from list
PA-04 - dropped from list
WI-08 - dropped from list
WY-AL - moved to Likely Republican from Republicans on the Horizon

Okay, time to get serious. I've dropped every district from the list where I don't think there's a realistic shot of a switch. I've also added a list of projected pickups (in order of likelihood), potential pickups, and depending on the party, wave pickups or upsets. My conservative estimate, at this exact moment, is a net 13 seat pickup for the Democrats.

[Dan the Roman]

I'd be wary of dropping Fl-08. Keller seems to be in real trouble this year.

[Mr.Phips]

I'd be wary of dropping Fl-08. Keller seems to be in real trouble this year.

Yes and I think he will lose. 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Thanks to Michele Bachmann's stupidity, she's been added to the list, and I've shifted some of the races to possible pickup territory.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Big shift to the Dems, since I smell a landslide brewing. Also added a few longshots to Likely Republican.

AZ-03 - added to list at Likely Republican
FL-24 - moved to Lean Democratic from Democratic-Leaning Tossup
FL-08 - added to list at Pure Tossup
ID-01 - moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican
IL-11 - moved to Lean Democratic from Democratic-Leaning Tossup
IN-03 - added to list at Likely Republican
MD-01 - moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican
MI-09 - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
MN-06 - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Republican
NE-02 - added to list at Likely Republican
NV-03 - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
NH-01 - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
NM-02 - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Republican
TX-22 - moved to Pure Tossup from Republican-Leaning Tossup
VA-02 - added to list at Likely Republican
VA-11 - moved to Lean Democratic from Democratic-Leaning Tossup
WA-08 - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
WY-AL - moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican

[Harry Hayfield]

As I have no idea which seats are open / marginal (if someone could post a link to a spreadsheet that lists the results from 2006 by state I'd be happy), so will make a guess based on totals

House
Dem make 15 net gains

Senate
Dem make 5 net gains

[Sbane]

I know CO-6 is a very republican district but it is open this year. Any chance the democrat could get close there? How are the candidates? I know Musgrave is basically done but getting Tancredo's seat would be especially sweet.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I know CO-6 is a very republican district but it is open this year. Any chance the democrat could get close there? How are the candidates? I know Musgrave is basically done but getting Tancredo's seat would be especially sweet.

Nope. The Republican running isn't from the ideologue wing of the CO GOP and has been elected statewide as both State Treasurer and Secretary of State. He's a safe bet for election.

[Spaghetti Cat]

New updated list
GOP Pickukps
Watch List

IN-09 (Baron Hill - D)


Likely Democratic

AZ-05 (Harry Mitchell - D)
GA-08 (Jim Marshall - D)
CA-11 (Jerry McNerney - D)
MS-01 (Travis Childers - D)
NY-20 (Kirsten Gillibrand - D)
PA-04 (Jason Altmire - D)



Lean Democratic

WI-08 (Steve Kagen - D)
AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords - D)
AL-05 (open seat held by Bud Cramer - D)
NY-25 (open seat held by J.T. Walsh - R)
PA-10 (Chris Carney - D)
PA-12 (John Murtha- D)
AK-AL (Don Young - R)
AZ-01 (open seat held by Rick Renzi - R)
VA-11 (open seat held by Tom Davis - R)
IL-11 (open seat held by Jerry Weller - R)
NJ-07 (open seat held by Mike Ferguson - R)
CO-04 (Marilyn Musgrave - R)
FL-24 (Tom Feeney - R)

Democratic-Leaning Tossup

OH-15 (open seat held by Deb Pryce - R)
NH-01 (Carol Shea-Porter - D)
MI-07 (Tim Walberg - R)
NC-08 (Robin Hayes - R)
NY-29 (Randy Kuhl - R)


Pure Tossup
MN-03 (open seat held by Jim Ramstad - R)
ID-01 (Bill Sali - R)
MI-09 (Joe Knollenberg - R)
Slight Dem tilt line
WA-08 (Dave Reichert - R)
NV-03 (Jon Porter - R)
NM-01 (open seat held by Heather Wilson - R)
CT-04 (Chris Shays - R)
FL-08 (Ric Keller- R)
IL-10 (Mark Kirk - R)
FL-21 (Lincoln Diaz-Balart- R)
PA-03 (Phil English- R)
OH-01 (Steve Chabot - R)
slight GOP tilt line
OH-16 (open seat held by Ralph Regula - R)
KS-02 (Nancy Boyda - D)



Republican-Leaning Tossup
NJ-03 (open seat held by Jim Saxton - R)
LA-06 (Don Cazayoux - D)
TX-22 (Nick Lampson - D)
PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski - D)
NY-26 (open seat held by Tom Reynolds - R)

Lean Republican
FL-16 (Tim Mahoney - D)
AL-02 (open seat held by Terry Everett - R)
CA-04 (open seat held by John Doolittle - R)
WY-AL (open seat held by Barbara Cubin - R)
MN-06 (Michele Bachmann- R)
MD-01 (open seat held by Wayne Gilchrest - R)
NM-02 (open seat held by Steve Pearce - R)
FL-25 (Mario Diaz-Balart- R)

Likely Republican

LA-04 (open seat held by Jim McCrery - R)
MO-06 (Sam Graves - R)
NV-02 (Dean Heller- R)



Watch List
OH-02 (Jean Schmidt - R)
MO-09 (open seat held by Kenny Hulshof - R)
FL-13 (Vern Buchanan- R)
Dem Pickups

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Hooray for updates:

CA-04 - moved to Pure Tossup from Likely Republican
GA-08 - added to list at Democratic-Leaning Tossup
FL-21 - moved to Pure Tossup from Republican-Leaning Tossup
FL-25 - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Lean Republican
IN-03 - moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican
IA-04 - added to list at Likely Republican
MO-09 - moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican
NY-25 - moved to Likely Democratic from Lean Democratic
OH-01 - moved to Pure Tossup from Republican-Leaning Tossup
OH-15 - moved to Lean Democratic from Democratic-Leaning Tossup
SC-01 - added to list at Likely Republican
TX-22 - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
VA-02 - moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican
VA-05 - added to list at Likely Republican
WA-08 - moved to Pure Tossup from Republican-Leaning Tossup

[HardRCafé]

Hooray for updates:

CA-04 - moved to Pure Tossup from Likely Republican
GA-08 - added to list at Democratic-Leaning Tossup
FL-21 - moved to Pure Tossup from Republican-Leaning Tossup
FL-25 - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Lean Republican
IN-03 - moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican
IA-04 - added to list at Likely Republican
MO-09 - moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican
NY-25 - moved to Likely Democratic from Lean Democratic
OH-01 - moved to Pure Tossup from Republican-Leaning Tossup
OH-15 - moved to Lean Democratic from Democratic-Leaning Tossup
SC-01 - added to list at Likely Republican
TX-22 - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
VA-02 - moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican
VA-05 - added to list at Likely Republican
WA-08 - moved to Pure Tossup from Republican-Leaning Tossup

Is that your personal list?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

List is in the OP; those are my latest updates.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Last update barring any surprises on Monday.

AL-02 - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Lean Republican
ID-01 - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Republican
MD-01 - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Lean Republican
NJ-07 - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
PA-12 - added to list at Democratic-Leaning Tossup

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Last-minute changes:

NE-02 - moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican
PA-10 - moved to Likely Democratic from Lean Democratic
PA-11 - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
VA-05 - moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican

Also fiddled with the pickup lists; it's now a net 25-seat gain for the Dems.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Well, let's see how I did. Bold ones I got right, strikethroughs (on the sure pickups lists) I whiffed, and the ones that are still in question are italicized. First, for the Dems:

Democratic Pickups:

1. NY-13 (open seat held by Vito Fossella - R)
2. NY-25 (open seat held by J.T. Walsh - R)
3. AZ-01 (open seat held by Rick Renzi - R)
4. OH-16 (open seat held by Ralph Regula - R)
5. FL-24 (Tom Feeney - R)
6. VA-11 (open seat held by Tom Davis - R)
7. IL-11 (open seat held by Jerry Weller - R)
8. OH-15 (open seat held by Deb Pryce - R)
9. MI-07 (Tim Walberg - R)
10. NC-08 (Robin Hayes - R)
11. AK-AL (Don Young - R)
12. CO-04 (Marilyn Musgrave - R)
13. MI-09 (Joe Knollenberg - R)
14. NM-01 (open seat held by Heather Wilson - R)
15. NV-03 (Jon Porter - R)
16. PA-03 (Phil English - R)
17. NJ-03 (open seat held by Jim Saxton - R)
18. NY-29 (Randy Kuhl - R)
19. FL-08 (Ric Keller - R)
20. CT-04 (Chris Shays - R)
21. MN-06 (Michele Bachmann - R)
22. NM-02 (open seat held by Steve Pearce - R)
23. IL-10 (Mark Kirk - R)
24. CA-04 (open seat held by John Doolittle - R)
25. MN-03 (open seat held by Jim Ramstad - R)
26. OH-01 (Steve Chabot - R)
27. ID-01 (Bill Sali - R)
28. FL-21 (Lincoln Diaz-Balart - R)

21/28 with one two still out. 75% is a passing grade, I guess. I was irrationally exuberant with the Minnesota seats, and I guess the Cubans are still behind the Diaz-Balarts. I am never listening to an Alaska poll again, however. I was also expecting Obama to have coattails for Dan Seals. Oh well.

Possible Democratic Pickups:

29. WA-08 (Dave Reichert - R)
30. FL-25 (Mario Diaz-Balart - R)
31. NJ-07 (open seat held by Mike Ferguson - R)
32. AL-02 (open seat held by Terry Everett - R)
33. MD-01 (open seat held by Wayne Gilchrest - R)
34. MO-09 (open seat held by Kenny Hulshof - R)
35. VA-05 (Virgil Goode - R)
36. NE-02 (Lee Terry - R)
37. VA-02 (Thelma Drake - R)
38. WY-AL (open seat held by Barbara Cubin - R)
39. IN-03 (Mark Souder - R)
40. KY-02 (open seat held by Ron Lewis - R)
41. AZ-03 (John Shadegg - R)
42. IA-04 (Tom Latham - R)
43. SC-01 (Henry Brown - R)

Some of these ended up being close. Others, like the ones at the bottom of the list, were not. Overall, no Democratic pickups were complete surprises, though.

Republican Pickups:

1. FL-16 (Tim Mahoney - D)
2. PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski - D)
3. TX-22 (Nick Lampson - D)

2/3, with Kanjorski surviving by the skin of his teeth. Maybe time to retire, Paul?

Possible Republican Pickups:

4. NH-01 (Carol Shea-Porter - D)
5. GA-08 (Jim Marshall - D)
6. PA-12 (Jack Murtha - D)
7. KS-02 (Nancy Boyda - D)
8. LA-06 (Don Cazayoux - D)
9. AL-05 (open seat held by Bud Cramer - D)
10. PA-10 (Chris Carney - D)

Certainly, of the seven on this list, Nancy Boyda and Don Cazayoux were not the two I was expecting to lose. Chris Carney and Jim Marshall ended up with double-digit margins, so lucky them.

Overall I'm pretty pleased with my predictions, especially since this is the first time I've attempted it with House races.