NJ 2009
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Author Topic: NJ 2009  (Read 5605 times)
DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« on: July 08, 2008, 06:29:52 PM »

Sure it may be kind of early but I think this race could get more interesting than the senate one this year.  Incumbent, and not too popular, mega millionaire governor Jon Corzine will most likely seek a second term.  It seems all but certain that US Atty Chris Christie, who terms expires at the end of this year, will seek the GOP nomination.  Others that may declare for the GOP include Morris County Freeholder John Murphy and St. Sen. Tom Kean Jr.

This could turn into a very close battle, Christie might be the one who finally can win it for NJ Republican.  However, he has turned down a few oppurtunities in the past.  This will also be the first election in NJ history in which the state elects a Lt. Gov.
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Cuivienen
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« Reply #1 on: July 08, 2008, 06:38:30 PM »

Remind me again why it's "all but certain" that Christie will run. I seem to remember you saying the same of 2006 and 2008.
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DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« Reply #2 on: July 08, 2008, 06:40:55 PM »

Remind me again why it's "all but certain" that Christie will run. I seem to remember you saying the same of 2006 and 2008.
Alright, this time I heard it straight from his mouth at a breakfast I attended.  The other times I heard it from other people who were simply county committee members who had heard him speak.  I did not think he would run in 2006, I heard of talk of it from a few sources in 2008, but it was just pretty optimistic.

This time having actually heard it from him makes me feel much more confident.  I'd put chances of him running at 90%.  What do you think his chances are as a candidate being uncertain of him running aside?
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Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
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« Reply #3 on: July 08, 2008, 06:58:13 PM »

I don't think its too early to start talking about NJ and VA 2009.  After all, those elections are only ~16 months away.

Anyway, I agree with you Down that NJ could be an interesting race to watch after we swear-in the new president.  My interest will definitely be peaked with both New Jersey and Virginia.
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Cuivienen
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« Reply #4 on: July 08, 2008, 08:00:07 PM »

I don't think its too early to start talking about NJ and VA 2009.  After all, those elections are only ~16 months away.

Anyway, I agree with you Down that NJ could be an interesting race to watch after we swear-in the new president.  My interest will definitely be peaked with both New Jersey and Virginia.

"Piqued", not "peaked".

As for Christie's chances... no idea, but not as high as you'd like. Despite his relatively high-profile work, he doesn't have much recognition, and he doesn't have the money/fundraising ability to compete with Corzine. Moreover, he has to do more than say that Corzine's budget plans suck. He has to actually present one of his own, and there really is no plan that would be more popular than Corzine's (nor do I think the NJGOP and its high-level supporters would let him get away with saying that we should actually increase the state deficit).
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DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« Reply #5 on: July 08, 2008, 09:20:48 PM »

Yet, I think you will agree with me that Christie is definetly the GOP's best shot.  He at least has something to run on and presents a viable alternative to the Democrats, something the GOP has not done in a long while.  Kean and both Forrester debacles were pretty bad candidates, Kean for being a gaffe machine and a terrible speaker, and Forrester for being arrogant and liberal.  Franks is the best candidate of the decade, and he came within 3 points in a year Gore carried the state by 16.  To think Christie couldn't pull the race to within at least 2 points if not win is certainly not imaginable.
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Cuivienen
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« Reply #6 on: July 08, 2008, 10:00:49 PM »

Franks was also running in an era that was, somewhat ironically, better for Republicans in NJ (despite 2004 being substantially closer than 2000 in the Presidential race). Is Christie the Republicans' best choice? Probably, but he's not a good choice in the sense of being likely to defeat an incumbent with approval ratings in the doldrums.

Then again, as I have argued many times before, true approval ratings in NJ as useful for comparisons to other states can be calculated by adding at least 10% to the approval rating of any politician.
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DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« Reply #7 on: July 08, 2008, 10:02:43 PM »

I agree that approval ratings are ridiculous, as you know, everyone in NJ hates every politician.  Any having a favorable rating means people don't know who they are Tongue.  I'm thinking there might be some real gold on attacking Corzine (toll hikes, his girlfriend thing, Zelema Farber (or however you spell it))

Verily, do you know if the Lt. Gov. is elected seperatley or if they are having ticket?
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Cuivienen
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« Reply #8 on: July 08, 2008, 10:20:37 PM »

I agree that approval ratings are ridiculous, as you know, everyone in NJ hates every politician.  Any having a favorable rating means people don't know who they are Tongue.  I'm thinking there might be some real gold on attacking Corzine (toll hikes, his girlfriend thing, Zelema Farber (or however you spell it))

Verily, do you know if the Lt. Gov. is elected seperatley or if they are having ticket?

I hadn't looked into it. Tickets, probably. Easier for the machines to control.
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DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« Reply #9 on: July 09, 2008, 07:58:51 AM »

I'm going to have to disagree on Christie.  I think once Murphy gets his name out and really campaigns (if he runs), he'll be in a better position.  He is already popular with the big guys, has a "nice" resume, and comes across very genuine.  And we all know how rare that is in New Jersey.  I think people will jump on the bandwagon of the first likable candidate in years.  Not to mention he'd be a great Governor.
I must admit, Murphy outperformed what I thought he would do in the primary in 2005.  I think that if the race is Murphy, Christie, and Kean Jr., Kean Jr. will win in a walk in the primary.  That's really why I root against Murphy running.  Not only do they both appeal to the conservative base, they are both Morris county guys.  I think a result like this would occur:

Kean Jr. 35%
Christie 32%
Murphy 25%
Lonegan/Schroeder/assorted other jokes 8%
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DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« Reply #10 on: July 09, 2008, 08:28:30 AM »

I also have a bit of a long shot dream of Cresitello being able to bump Corzine for the Democratic nomination, but I'm not going to get my hopes up.
Wouldn't that be great?  If he were the nominee the Republicans would be left with no choice but to nominate Lonegan Tongue

I also predict that the field be smaller than the last time.  However, when I talked to Bob Schroeder a few weeks ago, he said he was "strongly considering" another bid.  God it was embarassing in the last election, he's a family friend and I was forced to put signs out for him.

I think that while others may enter, Murphy, Kean Jr., and Christie are the only ones that could win.
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Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
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« Reply #11 on: July 09, 2008, 01:49:52 PM »

It looks like Lou Dobbs is making himself a candidate.  YEAH RIGHT!!!  right? Huh?
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Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
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« Reply #12 on: July 09, 2008, 01:50:22 PM »

I don't think its too early to start talking about NJ and VA 2009.  After all, those elections are only ~16 months away.

Anyway, I agree with you Down that NJ could be an interesting race to watch after we swear-in the new president.  My interest will definitely be peaked with both New Jersey and Virginia.

"Piqued", not "peaked".


Oops... My bad...
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DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« Reply #13 on: July 09, 2008, 02:54:45 PM »

I think that while others may enter, Murphy, Kean Jr., and Christie are the only ones that could win.

Definitely.  Though with all three it will still be a fight to upset the machine of all machines.
That is true, although I was more stating I thought they were the only 3 that could win the primary.
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DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« Reply #14 on: July 09, 2008, 03:34:48 PM »

Oh, that makes a little more sense, haha.  I was a little confused by the "Kean Jr. being able to win" concept.
Hopefully 2006 put that notion to rest Smiley, I personally think the joke candidates are the best though.  Schroeder, is a state senator now I believe or is at least working to it, as I said he'll run.  Lonegan might have some fun again, and I wish Caliguire gets embarassed with a 7/7 showing
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #15 on: July 09, 2008, 03:45:05 PM »

I look forward to Jon Corzine being re-elected.
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DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« Reply #16 on: July 10, 2008, 07:22:47 AM »

I look forward to Jon Corzine being re-elected.

Yes!!  Four more years of tax hikes and no progress!!  Awesome, let's all vote for the (D) beside the candidates' names instead of for the candidates.  Oh wait, welcome to New Jersey, home of the nameless winning (D)!
Fezzy, there is one thing wrong with your statement, you must also remember that in a primary machine-backed highly-funded Dems beat Dems looking for change
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DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« Reply #17 on: August 13, 2008, 06:45:21 PM »

BUMP

and link to discussion for 2007 about the race: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=61018.0

I see no way at this point Christie does not run.  Anyone know which way Murphy and Kean are leaning?

BTW, lol, Lonegan is in!!!
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #18 on: August 13, 2008, 06:46:02 PM »


My philosophy with NJ - Keep it as interesting as possible since we know the result already.
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DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« Reply #19 on: August 13, 2008, 06:55:04 PM »


My philosophy with NJ - Keep it as interesting as possible since we know the result already.
My parents will do their part once again!
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Conan
conan
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« Reply #20 on: August 13, 2008, 08:35:50 PM »

I look forward to Jon Corzine being re-elected.

Yes!!  Four more years of tax hikes and no progress!!  Awesome, let's all vote for the (D) beside the candidates' names instead of for the candidates.  Oh wait, welcome to New Jersey, home of the nameless winning (D)!
The only tax hike I've experienced, which has probably cost me to date about $100, was the 1% sales tax increase.

Otherwise, just today you can read something like this:
http://www.nj.com/southjersey/index.ssf/2008/08/wall_street_notes_njs_fiscal_p.html

Wall Street likes the progress...are you not a believer of the markets?
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DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« Reply #21 on: August 25, 2008, 05:35:35 PM »

It just dawned on me that this will be the first election I can vote Smiley
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