Vermont gubernatorial election, 2008

[Verily]

How does Vermont's system work? Straight plurality?

Yes. Personally, while Pollina may well take second, I can't see Douglas losing reelection to divided opposition.

[Verily]

How does Vermont's system work? Straight plurality?

Yes. Personally, while Pollina may well take second, I can't see Douglas losing reelection to divided opposition.

Ah. In that case, I must be confusing it with some other state. Which one had the provision that mandates election by the legislature if no candidate reaches 50%?

Oh, no, maybe that is Vermont. I was just thinking of those using run-offs. There might be serious infighting within the Democrats over whether to support Douglas or Pollina in the event of that choice, though (partially because supporting Pollina would mean a stronger VT Progressive Party in the future, which is dangerous to them).

[Verily]

Apparently Pollina recently decided to be listed on the ballot as "independent" rather than Progressive. However, he also says that isn't abandoning his party either: http://www.anthonypollina.com/news/2008/07/21/building-an-independent-coalition/

BTW, Douglas won with around 45% of the vote in 2002.

in 2002, his opponent allowed the vote to stand and conceded.  but he could have taken it to the legislature.

anyway, i support douglas.

Republicans controlled the state legislature in 2002 anyway, I'm pretty sure.

[Verily]

Douglas saved his bacon (or tofurky, this being VT) by vetoeing that IRV bill. But it's not over yet. If Douglas falls below 50%, the D leg. will pick Symington.

Especially because she's Speaker of the House.

[Verily]

Douglas saved his bacon (or tofurky, this being VT) by vetoeing that IRV bill. But it's not over yet. If Douglas falls below 50%, the D leg. will pick Symington.

Vermont Democrats couldn't possibly be that stupid.

So it would be more intelligent for them to back the incumbent Republican or an independent?

It would be more intelligent to support whomever gets the most popular votes, no?

They can very credibly make the argument in the case of a, say, 40R-35D-25P result that the people preferred a Democrat.

[Verily]

Douglas saved his bacon (or tofurky, this being VT) by vetoeing that IRV bill. But it's not over yet. If Douglas falls below 50%, the D leg. will pick Symington.

Vermont Democrats couldn't possibly be that stupid.

So it would be more intelligent for them to back the incumbent Republican or an independent?

It would be more intelligent to support whomever gets the most popular votes, no?

They can very credibly make the argument in the case of a, say, 40R-35D-25P result that the people preferred a Democrat.

Yeah, but what are the chances that Douglas drops that many points from 2006?

Who said I was postulating a likely result? Certainly for Douglas to drop below 50%, Pollina has to be pulling a pretty big share of the vote directly from him (not at all unlikely). And Symington would probably have done better than Scudder Parker in 2006, if not much better.