Northern Territory, Australia - Saturday 9 August 2008

[Smid]

Apparently there was a snap election called in the Northern Territory recently. I only just heard about it.

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/nt/2008/

[Хahar 🤔]

Will the Country Liberals continue bleeding?

[Smid]

I think 2005 was a low point for them, so I assume there'll be an increase for them, but I couldn't say how much.

Labor has a new Chief Minister and I believe there have been internal problems, too. That said, I found out about the election because a political news thing I get in my inbox said that the CLP has been massively outspent on advertising and has just sent a "help us by giving us money" email out.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

I'll admit that I hardly know anything about politics in the Northern Territory. So forgive me. Despite my lack of knowledge, I will admit this. The Labor Party, led by incumbent Chief Minister Paul Henderson and his Labor Government will win reelection. Considering that the Northern Territory's economy is booming, despite the rising cost of fuel and living (I believe rent in Darwin is $400 from memory), it's a very good chance that this Election will result in the dissolving of the Country Liberal Party. And most people thought that 2005 was a landslide victory for Clare Martin, this upcoming Election in the NT could potentially be a rout.

[Hash]

Will the Country Liberals continue bleeding?

If they manage to lose seats after their 2005 results, they might as well become a third party.

[Platypus]

Basically, I did a full seat-by-seat analysis, and...Labor wins, with a reduced majority. anywhere between 13-17 seats, with Fannie Bay being the only one I couldn't get a firmish view on.

[Smid]

Currently hearing of a 9% swing to the Country Liberal Party in the Northern Territory, CLP pick up of 4 seats. Anthony Green's site (link earlier in this thread) has up to date results.

Looks like 9.6% to the CLP.

CLP outpolling Labor, but the final makeup will be Labor 13, CLP 11, Ind 1. Labor will just hang on.

[Bono]

Live results here:
www.abc.net.au/elections/nt/2008/

With 55.1% of votes counted, the tally stands as follows:
ALP 42.7% (--8.6) 13 seats (-4)
CLP 46% (+9.6) 11 seats (+4)
Greens 4.5% (+0.6) 0 seats (-)
Others 6.8% (-1.6) 1 seat (-)

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Here I was believing that Paul Henderson's Government would receive a swing towards his Labor Government, and in the process that the Country Liberal Party would collapse. I have been proven wrong big time - even more so than my comments regarding John McCain's candidature back in June/July 2007.

I wonder where this leaves the Liberal Party nationally, particularly the leadership of Brendan Nelson and more importantly the Liberal Party's chances of defeating the Carpenter Government on September 6?

[Smid]

Yeah - ABC is webcasting their talking heads.

Labor strategist saying that the result in Fannie Bay is pretty close at the moment and if it goes CLP, will be a hung Parliament.

[Bono]

Yeah - ABC is webcasting their talking heads.

Labor strategist saying that the result in Fannie Bay is pretty close at the moment and if it goes CLP, will be a hung Parliament.

Yea, I found out the webcast now too:
www.abc.net.au/streaming/abc-video2.asx

[Smid]

They're saying Fannie Bay is currently 40 votes the difference and the fate of the Government will probably hang on that because the Independent will probably side with the CLP.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Labor strategist saying that the result in Fannie Bay is pretty close at the moment and if it goes CLP, will be a hung Parliament.

If Fannie Bay does go to the Country Liberal Party and the 2008 NT Election results in being a hung parliament, who would Gerry Wood, the Independent of Nelson side with to form a new Government? This brings back my vague memories of the November 1999 Victorian Election which resulted in Steve Bracks forming a minority Government thanks to the support of two Independents, though it might have been three, though I am not sure.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

According to Antony Green, the ABC's electoral guru, in an unusual move, they'll be counting postal votes in the closest electorates around the Northern Territory, the prime seat is that of Fannie Bay, which has been previously mentioned earlier this evening. Hard to believe that the CLP has recorded a swing of more than 14.1% in the electorate that was once a "safe" seat for the Labor Party, though that is debatable.

[Smid]

Anthony Green's website said that Fannie Bay was originally a by-election win by Claire Martin from the CLP - so that sort of swing isn't entirely out of the question.

Gerry Wood says that he will be thinking closely about who he would support to form Government. I think that given the swing - the people have expressed quite strongly that they are looking for change, and given that the CLP outpolled the ALP, I think he would understand that the CLP should form Government in the Northern Territory.

Bracks had the support of three independents, I think. Similar situation in Queensland in the Parliament 1995-98, and to a lesser extent 98-01.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Anthony Green's website said that Fannie Bay was originally a by-election win by Claire Martin from the CLP - so that sort of swing isn't entirely out of the question.

Learning from the broadcast of the Election results in the Top End, swings, such as those in Fannie Bay tonight are quite common, infact highly common. I believe former Chief Minister Clare Martin said that a similar swing occurred to her when she won Fannie Bay in the 1995 by-election.

Gerry Wood says that he will be thinking closely about who he would support to form Government. I think that given the swing - the people have expressed quite strongly that they are looking for change, and given that the CLP outpolled the ALP, I think he would understand that the CLP should form Government in the Northern Territory.

Also learning from the broadcast of the Election results, I believe that if Fannie Bay does go to the CLP and thus a hung parliament occurs in the Top End that Wood would help CLP Leader Terry Mills form Government and thus become Chief Minister. Although former Chief Minister Martin repetitively suggested to Kerry O'Brien that Wood is a "true Independent", I believe that judging from his comments made tonight he is seriously contemplating helping Mills to form Government, if a hung parliament was to occur.

Similar situation in Queensland in the Parliament 1995-98, and to a lesser extent 98-01.

Ah Pauline Hanson's One Nation Party, thankfully her and her nationalist scum didn't influence Victorian politics. One of the few things Jeffery did good as Victorian Premier, though it was not Jeffery's influence alone which caused One Nation to have hardly any influence in Victorian politics. We're sophisticated folk .

[Smid]

Gerry Wood says that he will be thinking closely about who he would support to form Government. I think that given the swing - the people have expressed quite strongly that they are looking for change, and given that the CLP outpolled the ALP, I think he would understand that the CLP should form Government in the Northern Territory.

Also learning from the broadcast of the Election results, I believe that if Fannie Bay does go to the CLP and thus a hung parliament occurs in the Top End that Wood would help CLP Leader Terry Mills form Government and thus become Chief Minister. Although former Chief Minister Martin repetitively suggested to Kerry O'Brien that Wood is a "true Independent", I believe that judging from his comments made tonight he is seriously contemplating helping Mills to form Government, if a hung parliament was to occur.

I agree. That was the feeling I was getting from what he was saying, too.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Lab 43.0%, 13 seats
CLP 45.6%, 11 seats

Note that two Labor seats (Arnhem, Macdonnell) were unopposed, rending popular vote figures a little meaningless.

[Smid]

Lab 43.0%, 13 seats
CLP 45.6%, 11 seats

Note that two Labor seats (Arnhem, Macdonnell) were unopposed, rending popular vote figures a little meaningless.

Indeed, it has inflated the Labor Party's vote there, they actually would have received a lower vote had it not been for that. None-the-less, here's the ninemsn story:

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=611865

[Хahar 🤔]

How'd this happen? I'm not the most competent when it comes to NT politics.

[Verily]

Lab 43.0%, 13 seats
CLP 45.6%, 11 seats

Note that two Labor seats (Arnhem, Macdonnell) were unopposed, rending popular vote figures a little meaningless.

Indeed, it has inflated the Labor Party's vote there, they actually would have received a lower vote had it not been for that. None-the-less, here's the ninemsn story:

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=611865

Deflated their vote, actually, as no votes were reported for Arnhem and MacDonnell.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

How'd this happen? I'm not the most competent when it comes to NT politics.

One potential reason for the Henderson Government's drastic fall from grace in Darwin could be due to Henderson's decision to call an early election, which could have been held back until 2009. Funny that Henderson called an election at a time when the Beijing Olympic Games are currently being held,  and due to about two public holidays (me thinks) occurring in the Northern Territory during the 19 day campaign.

However, I believe one of the most significant factors that have led to the drastic fall of the Henderson Government would be due Territorian voters deserting Labor across Darwin's crucial northern suburbs and the satellite city of Palmerston, and as I learnt about Territorian politics on the best political show in Australia, The Insiders, not to mention last night's election coverage, if ten people in an electorate of one thousand (on average in the Northern Territory) change their minds it's enough for the electorate to change hands. And judging from the amount of 10-15% swings towards the CLP, Labor Ministers have obviously taken their electorates for granted, thus the massive swing.

These are some potential ideas as to why the Henderson Government do so appallingly in last night's election, and I can assure you all, there are numerous other reasons to go alongside my suggestions.

[minionofmidas]

Lab 43.0%, 13 seats
CLP 45.6%, 11 seats

Note that two Labor seats (Arnhem, Macdonnell) were unopposed, rending popular vote figures a little meaningless.

Indeed, it has inflated the Labor Party's vote there, they actually would have received a lower vote had it not been for that. None-the-less, here's the ninemsn story:

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=611865

Deflated their vote, actually, as no votes were reported for Arnhem and MacDonnell.

Or more precisely, exactly one vote.

The "popular vote total", then, is one that gave 11-11 seats, while omitting an area Labor would have won anyways, and one where the fact that the vote wasn't held basically makes no difference to the CLP's total.

ALP 42.7% (--8.6) 13 seats (-4)
CLP 46% (+9.6) 11 seats (+4)
Greens 4.5% (+0.6) 0 seats (-)
Others 6.8% (-1.6) 1 seat (-)

That's comparing with notionals, and giving the CLP a seat where an (ex-CLP) indy isn't standing anymore. There were two marginally Labor-won seats that are now notionally CLP due to changes around their margins. (One of them redrawn fairly heavily, actually, though the partisan change is slight). I usually consider it better to ignore that kind of notional, and view these as Labor held seats, giving the real change of
ALP 13 (-6)
CLP 11 (+7)
i 1 (-1)

How'd this happen? I'm not the most competent when it comes to NT politics.

Looking at the regional breakdown helps...

Central Darwin proper:
ALP 1 (-1)
CLP 1 (+1)

North Darwin suburbs, where most of the people live:
ALP 5 (-1)
CLP 1 (+1)

Palmerston
CLP 3 (+2)
ALP 0 (-2) includes one of the notional gains

Outer Greater Darwin suburban seats (includes one between these three urban cores that is less densely settled than the above but more densely than the other two I'm including here, which are east and southeast of the area)
CLP 2 (+2)
i 1 (0)
ALP 0 (-2) includes one of the notional gains

Sum: Greater Darwin total
CLP 7 (+6)
ALP 6 (-6)
i 1 (0)

Arnhemland:
ALP 3 (0)
CLP 0 (0)

Outback:
ALP 4 (0)
CLP 0 (0)

Alice Springs:
CLP 3 (+1)
i 0 (-1)
ALP 0 (0)

Katherine:
CLP 1 (0)
ALP 0 (0)

Non-Darwin total:
ALP 7 (0)
CLP 4 (+1)
i 0 (-1)

It's like two separate elections - Darwin and the rural parts. The rural parts are so polarized (racially polarized, basically, although there are some white Labor votes in the small mining settlements IIRC) that it's basically pointless to hold elections at all (well, okay. Katherine almost fell in 2005. But then 2005 was exceptional.) while Darwin, though also polarized geographically (Fannie Bay is the other Central Darwin seat) is where the wild swings are and elections are decided - and the CLP got creamed royally in Darwin last time around.

[Platypus]

Well, I expected Fong Lim to go ALP, but got everything else right...including the uncertainty of Fannie Bay