is there any way....

[WalterMitty]

discuss.

[Flying Dog]

No.

[YRABNNRM]

There's always a way; it's just a question of how likely that way is.

[WalterMitty]

possible?

[phk]

There's always a way; it's just a question of how likely that way is.

[Flying Dog]

Well, everything like that is possible, but not likely.

If there was a state to back-stab Obama, NH would be the one, I guess.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

possible?

No, not really.  If he wins VA, he wins NH and NM.

[phk]

No.

[Sam Spade]

Possible, but highly unlikely.  Maybe if he were to put a Virginian on the ticket.  Otherwise, no.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     If the economy comes out of the recession (extremely unlikely) & Obama performs strongly in less economically sensitive states this would be possible:

     A 271-267 McCain win. Very unlikely, but possible. I would have to think about a likely scenario for him to win Virginia without Missouri or Ohio though.

[MODU]

There is always a way.  Is it likely?  No.

[JSojourner]

Of course it's possible.  But I think it's highly unlikely. I suppose one possibility is that McCain solidifies himself in the west, winning Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada...while garnering just enough support in northern and central Pennsylvania to swing the Keystone state to his camp.  He would, of course, have to win Ohio also...

But here's another unlikely, improbable, but not completely impossible scenario...Barack wins Virginia, Colorado and Pennsylvania.  But New Hampshire Democrats stay home and Wisconsin really is tilting Republican....

[War on Want]

     If the economy comes out of the recession (extremely unlikely) & Obama performs strongly in less economically sensitive states this would be possible:

     A 271-267 McCain win. Very unlikely, but possible. I would have to think about a likely scenario for him to win Virginia without Missouri or Ohio though.

I think that Obama almost has Iowa locked up though. I say it has a 85% chance of it going to him and if it doesn't Virginia certainly won't vote for Obama.

[Хahar 🤔]

Not realistically.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     If the economy comes out of the recession (extremely unlikely) & Obama performs strongly in less economically sensitive states this would be possible:

     A 271-267 McCain win. Very unlikely, but possible. I would have to think about a likely scenario for him to win Virginia without Missouri or Ohio though.

I think that Obama almost has Iowa locked up though. I say it has a 85% chance of it going to him and if it doesn't Virginia certainly won't vote for Obama.

     I strongly agree. That's why I stipulated an economic recovery. Iowa & Michigan both care a lot about the economy. If it takes a sudden upturn, I could see McCain as having a shot in those two states.

[J. J.]

Start with this base: 

Obama wins everything that Gore does except PA, and wins NH and VA.

Republicans get 282 EV.

You could actually add CO to Obama, and McCain still wins.

[elcorazon]

Start with this base: 

Obama wins everything that Gore does except PA, and wins NH and VA.

Republicans get 282 EV.

You could actually add CO to Obama, and McCain still wins.

yeah, we can all do the math.  The question is, can Obama actually pull out a victory in VA and manage to lose PA.  Are the votes he is going to have
to gain in VA in order to win it that different from the voters in PA he is going to have to lose in order to not win in PA.

Frankly, it's probably more likely he wins PA and loses CO and NM, maybe even NH, if only because the states are more different.  Maybe you can see Obama
dominating NoVa enough to carry VA and yet losing PA.  Seems most people think OH will go Obama before VA does.

How about this for an election night decision.  Whoever wins 3 of MI, PA, VA, OH and FL wins the election.  Not perfect, but hard for either to win without 3
of those states, methinks.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

This is the only way I see this happening:

270-268

[J. J.]

Start with this base: 

Obama wins everything that Gore does except PA, and wins NH and VA.

Republicans get 282 EV.

You could actually add CO to Obama, and McCain still wins.

yeah, we can all do the math.  The question is, can Obama actually pull out a victory in VA and manage to lose PA.  Are the votes he is going to have
to gain in VA in order to win it that different from the voters in PA he is going to have to lose in order to not win in PA.

Frankly, it's probably more likely he wins PA and loses CO and NM, maybe even NH, if only because the states are more different.  Maybe you can see Obama
dominating NoVa enough to carry VA and yet losing PA.  Seems most people think OH will go Obama before VA does.

How about this for an election night decision.  Whoever wins 3 of MI, PA, VA, OH and FL wins the election.  Not perfect, but hard for either to win without 3
of those states, methinks.

Obama carries VA because Kaine (not sure of the spelling) is on the ticket.  McCain wins PA because Ridge is on the ticket or MI because Romney is on the ticket (and frankly, he might not need either).