Newsweek confirms Time Poll: Bush +11

[ATFFL]

This is real bad for Kerry.  Newsweek has had a slight pull in his favor so far this cycle.  Their last poll, from 7-29 to 7-30, had Kerry +8, the highest for Kerry at that time, and the second highest he has ever done.

As for Rasmussen, his hard weighting is design to stamp out sudden large movements.  

I agree, Kerry cannot go negative.  Edwards must, but Kerry needs to realize that just having a last name that is not Bush is not going to win him the White House.  He needs details and specifics, he needs a positive message and he needs it yesterday.

[ATFFL]

That party breakdown is not hideously bad.  Some firms think the breakdown is about 38-38-24.  

Is the party ID by registration or self-identification?  Self IDs will likely skew away from Dems for a while following the convention.

[ATFFL]

I have to admit, I first heard the party breakdown at +1 % Rep, not the 7% Vorlon has.  The only possible explanations are a slef ID highly skewed by the RNC or a bad sample.

[ATFFL]

Never mind.  I just saw Vorlon's chart.  I thought he'd earlier said Rep +1.  My bad.

Yep, I remember that too.