MS Sen - Rasmussen: Wicker expands lead

[Sam Spade]

I was wondering whether I should wait for Harry to post this... 

Note that Wicker is named as (R) and Musgrove as (D).
7/28/08, 500 Likely Voters, MOE +/- 4.5%

Wicker (R) 48% (+1)
Musgrove (D) 42% (-5)

With Leaners

Wicker (R) 52% (n/a)
Musgrove (D) 43% (n/a)

Link

[Sam Spade]

Those Wicker ads are finally working.  Dole and now Wicker have received  boosts from their recent ad buys. Guess who is the only Republican Senator whose poll numbers haven't budged after  massive ($1 million a month for two consecutive months) ad expenditures?
The answer: Gordon Smith

We really haven't had enough polls to tell whether anything is working or not in Oregon, frankly.

Also, I suspect others will point to the recent Daily Kos-sponsored R2000 poll as saying your assumption may not necessarily be accurate here either.  Now, you know my feelings towards those polls (caveat emptor), but a decent argument could well be made.

[Sam Spade]

Those Wicker ads are finally working.  Dole and now Wicker have received  boosts from their recent ad buys. Guess who is the only Republican Senator whose poll numbers haven't budged after  massive ($1 million a month for two consecutive months) ad expenditures?
The answer: Gordon Smith

We really haven't had enough polls to tell whether anything is working or not in Oregon, frankly.

Also, I suspect others will point to the recent Daily Kos-sponsored R2000 poll as saying your assumption may not necessarily be accurate here either.  Now, you know my feelings towards those polls (caveat emptor), but a decent argument could well be made.

My view is that Smith's opposition is more entrenched than Wicker's. Since he was appointed, Wicker's greatest political foe has been his low name ID. Solving that is not very difficult. Overcoming a state's political leanings and a tough opponent is, which is why I'm mulling moving OR pas MS in the coming weeks.

I certainly agree.  FWIW, Musgrove's opposition is probably more entrenched than any of the other two, but that has to do with MS-centric factors. heh.

Note that I already did what you propose doing about 3-4 weeks ago. 

[Sam Spade]

What is your view of Oregon exactly?

[Sam Spade]

After surveying the blogs, I learned that this poll included party labels when identifying the candidates.  Throw it out.

party labels hurt Wicker

Not in Mississiippi. Though it may help Wicker if AA voters don't know which one is the Democrat.

I would assume that the swingy white hill Democrats in Wicker's area know who he is - that's the key vote anyway.

Personally, I suspect most voters actually know these things, odd as it may sound, and will know it by election time. 

Do you think the Wicker campaign will make Wicker/McCain signs, for example? 

Do you think the Musgrove campaign will make Musgrove/Obama signs?  Oh whoops...

[Sam Spade]

After surveying the blogs, I learned that this poll included party labels when identifying the candidates.  Throw it out.

party labels hurt Wicker

Not in Mississiippi. Though it may help Wicker if AA voters don't know which one is the Democrat.

I would assume that the swingy white hill Democrats in Wicker's area know who he is - that's the key vote anyway.

Personally, I suspect most voters actually know these things, odd as it may sound, and will know it by election time. 

Do you think the Wicker campaign will make Wicker/McCain signs, for example? 

Do you think the Musgrove campaign will make Musgrove/Obama signs?  Oh whoops...

I'd like to see some McCain/Musgrove signs. If it works for Arlen Specter...

What will the black people think, however?