MS Sen - Rasmussen: Wicker expands lead

[MarkWarner08]

Those Wicker ads are finally working.  Dole and now Wicker have received  boosts from their recent ad buys. Guess who is the only Republican Senator whose poll numbers haven't budged after  massive ($1 million a month for two consecutive months) ad expenditures?
The answer: Gordon Smith

[MarkWarner08]

Those Wicker ads are finally working.  Dole and now Wicker have received  boosts from their recent ad buys. Guess who is the only Republican Senator whose poll numbers haven't budged after  massive ($1 million a month for two consecutive months) ad expenditures?
The answer: Gordon Smith

We really haven't had enough polls to tell whether anything is working or not in Oregon, frankly.

Also, I suspect others will point to the recent Daily Kos-sponsored R2000 poll as saying your assumption may not necessarily be accurate here either.  Now, you know my feelings towards those polls (caveat emptor), but a decent argument could well be made.

My view is that Smith's opposition is more entrenched than Wicker's. Since he was appointed, Wicker's greatest political foe has been his low name ID. Solving that is not very difficult. Overcoming a state's political leanings and a tough opponent is, which is why I'm mulling moving OR pas MS in the coming weeks.

[MarkWarner08]

Those Wicker ads are finally working.  Dole and now Wicker have received  boosts from their recent ad buys. Guess who is the only Republican Senator whose poll numbers haven't budged after  massive ($1 million a month for two consecutive months) ad expenditures?
The answer: Gordon Smith

We really haven't had enough polls to tell whether anything is working or not in Oregon, frankly.

Also, I suspect others will point to the recent Daily Kos-sponsored R2000 poll as saying your assumption may not necessarily be accurate here either.  Now, you know my feelings towards those polls (caveat emptor), but a decent argument could well be made.

My view is that Smith's opposition is more entrenched than Wicker's. Since he was appointed, Wicker's greatest political foe has been his low name ID. Solving that is not very difficult. Overcoming a state's political leanings and a tough opponent is, which is why I'm mulling moving OR pas MS in the coming weeks.

I certainly agree.  FWIW, Musgrove's opposition is probably more entrenched than any of the other two, but that has to do with MS-centric factors. heh.

Note that I already did what you propose doing about 3-4 weeks ago. 

I'm still waiting for another OR poll to confirm my view of the race.  It's good to hear that I'm not the only person who think OR may now be more competitive than MS. Take that, National Journal!

[MarkWarner08]

After surveying the blogs, I learned that this poll included party labels when identifying the candidates.  Throw it out.

party labels hurt Wicker

Not in Mississiippi. Though it may help Wicker if AA voters don't know which one is the Democrat.

[MarkWarner08]

After surveying the blogs, I learned that this poll included party labels when identifying the candidates.  Throw it out.

party labels hurt Wicker

Not in Mississiippi. Though it may help Wicker if AA voters don't know which one is the Democrat.

I would assume that the swingy white hill Democrats in Wicker's area know who he is - that's the key vote anyway.

Personally, I suspect most voters actually know these things, odd as it may sound, and will know it by election time. 

Do you think the Wicker campaign will make Wicker/McCain signs, for example? 

Do you think the Musgrove campaign will make Musgrove/Obama signs?  Oh whoops...

I'd like to see some McCain/Musgrove signs. If it works for Arlen Specter...

[MarkWarner08]

Every black who votes knows Musgrove is a Democrat.  They appreciate how he had the courage to try to change the albatross we shamefully call a state flag.  They're not going to vote Wicker anyway.

Of course, every white also knows Musgrove is a Democrat.  But around 5% of the white electorate normally votes straight Republican in "national" races but would be open to voting for certain Democrats, and the lack of party labels will allow them to justify voting for Musgrove to themselves?  Silly--yes.  Enough to put Musgrove over the hump--maybe.

Just as Musgrove needs to avoid tying himself to Obama too much, Wicker needs to avoid McCain.  Few Mississippians are happy with their party's candidates this year.

Musgrove's name ID is 100%? I don't think so. What about all the new voters Obama's campaign has been registering. Many are in the 18-24 age group. These voters may not have formed a view of Musgrove, who has been out of office for five years.

Wicker looks to be, at the very least, the Corker of this cycle.

That's a rather astute analogy. Musgrove, like Ford, has personal baggage. Musgrove, like Corker, must introduce himself to the over 2/3 of the state's electorate. Unlike Corker, Wicker will not have an (R) at the end of his name.

[MarkWarner08]

Musgrove's name ID is 100%? I don't think so. What about all the new voters Obama's campaign has been registering. Many are in the 18-24 age group. These voters may not have formed a view of Musgrove, who has been out of office for five years.

That's a rather astute analogy. Musgrove, like Ford, has personal baggage. Musgrove, like Corker, must introduce himself to the over 2/3 of the state's electorate. Unlike Corker, Wicker will not have an (R) at the end of his name.

Well no obviously it's not 100%, but the vast majority of voters have heard of Musgrove and remember him being governor.  Also, Wicker is the one who has to introduce himself to the state, not Musgrove.  Musgrove simply has to not let Wicker's attacks bog him down (I already hear attack ads on the radio often).

Also, the lack of an (R) next to Wicker's name is going to hurt him, not help him, barring Obama winning the election with 60%+ of the PV, and enough EV's to win Mississippi by several % points.

Wicker's name rec. is rising, which is directly correlated with his soaring poll numbers.  The party ID issue is still a huge unknown. Let's wait a few months to see how it plays out. I suspect it won't be as one-sided as you may think.

[MarkWarner08]

Why are so many people around here under the impression that Musgrove is going to win this race? I think he'll do well, but I can't see him winning it. I just noticed on the site prediction maps that Mississippi is almost red.

Sam Spade, aka "Mr. Caution," has stressed numerous times that trusting electoral predictions  made in summer is foolhardy. I give Wicker a slight, but solid advantage over Musgrove.

Edit: My first post made no sense.