March 9th States

[© tweed]

On March ninth, four southern states hold primaries: Texas, Florida, Louisiana, and Mississippi.  If super Tuesday is competitive, which we all suspect it will be, March ninth will have a huge impact on the nomination.  Here are the poll numbers:

Texas, by Survey USA, 2/8-2/10:

Kerry 47%
Edwards 17%
(Dean 16%)
(Clark 9%)
other 8%
undecided 4%

This may look like Kerry country, but it's getting closer.  edwards has a Wisconsin bounce, plus inherits most of Clark's and Dean's support.  And if he does well on super Tuesday, more Bounce for Edwards.

Florida, Survey USA, 1/24-1/26:

Kerry 67%
Edwards 16%
Sharpton 4%
(Dean 3%)

I would say most of Lieberman's support goes to Kerry, it's just a feeling.  This is an anti-region state, so Kerry has a good chance here.

Mississippi and Louisana are nowhere to be found, but I suspect Kerry has the edge in LA and Edwards has it in MS.

JOHN EDWARDS FOR PRESIDENT

[Gustaf]

Edwards needs a sweep in these states if he's to have any chance at all.

[© tweed]

Edwards needs a sweep in these states if he's to have any chance at all.

3 of 4.

[Gustaf]

Edwards needs a sweep in these states if he's to have any chance at all.

3 of 4.

Yeah, something like that. Kerry is already so far ahead and has the edge in most big states, like NY and CA.

[DarthKosh]

Edwards needs a sweep in these states if he's to have any chance at all.

3 of 4.

Yeah, something like that. Kerry is already so far ahead and has the edge in most big states, like NY and CA.

It's not winner take all remember.

[Gustaf]

Edwards needs a sweep in these states if he's to have any chance at all.

3 of 4.

Yeah, something like that. Kerry is already so far ahead and has the edge in most big states, like NY and CA.

It's not winner take all remember.

I know, but still...

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Guess what?  When this poll was taken, everyone thought is was over!  Kerry was up 30 in WI.  It was a done deal.  You think that held up after WI?  Hell no.  Edwards does well on 3/2, he sweeps the South with ease.  

[© tweed]

Guess what?  When this poll was taken, everyone thought is was over!  Kerry was up 30 in WI.  It was a done deal.  You think that held up after WI?  Hell no.  Edwards does well on 3/2, he sweeps the South with ease.  

From your mouth to god's ears.

Ah do b-lieve Ah will win this namination.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I would say most of Lieberman's support goes to Kerry, it's just a feeling.  This is an anti-region state, so Kerry has a good chance here.

If Lieberman support is from the Jewish population in FL who relate well to a Northern Jewish candidate, then yes, that support would go to Kerry.  If people were behind Leiberman because he is the most moderate candidate, then that would go to Edwards.

I think a lot of Lieberman fans switched over to Edwards after he dropped out.

[zachman]

Lieberman's support was from conservatives who supported the war in Iraq.

[© tweed]

Lieberman's support was from conservatives who supported the war in Iraq.

Who do you think they will support now?

[zachman]

I think Lieberman's support was mostly from Republican voting independents, but I would say Edwards because he is more positive, and Lieberman's supporters will vote against a frontrunner.

[© tweed]

I think Lieberman's support was mostly from Republican voting independents, but I would say Edwards because he is more positive, and Lieberman's supporters will vote against a frontrunner.

Okay.
I still say a majority go to Kerry.