MI: Public Policy Polling: Obama's lead down to 3

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Michigan President by Public Policy Polling on 2008-07-27

Summary: D: 46%, R: 43%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Josh/Devilman88]

Seems about right.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Not good for Obama considering PPP's Dem bias.

[Flying Dog]

I started to wonder when McCain would start to go up in Michigan. I was getting overly worried(joyous) for him. Republicans are usually supposed to be somewhat overly competitive in the state during these summer months. That fact that he's still constantly polling behind Obama in the summer months is not a good sign.

Of course, this ill could easily be alleviated by one thing! Romney as V.P.!

[MarkWarner08]

Romney's stock just went up 15%

[Flying Dog]

Ugh, they're already polling the Governor's race....

I'm currently split between Archer and Lynn-Land, I can't decide...

Ah, I've got time, obviously...

[Sam Spade]

Gotta love how these trading games react to crappy polls from partisan firms.

[Flying Dog]

This seems about right.  But notice how McCain never goes up.  McCain will never be able to out run the huge turnout for Obama in the Eastern part of the state.  I predict that Obama will win the state while winning only a handful of major counties. The only smaller counties he will win will be in the UP and will have little effect on the race.

McCain really is screwed in relation to the eastern part of the state. He'll run up the margin in Wayne (hopefully white as well as black) and the death throw will be Oakland. Obama's going to win it huge (55%+). Whether McCain is put under the standard 47-48% a Republican recieves here will really depend on how good he is at turning out the Dutch Reformists in the western part of the state and how good Obama is at winning white-workers in Flint, Saginaw and Bay City. I also expect Obama to do very well in Lansing (Government workers)...now I'm just rambling...

[Bay Ridge, Bklyn! Born and Bred]

Obama needs a running mate that can talk to Michigan voters about the economy, and has a stellar economic record, preferably from a nearby Rust Belt state.   

[Keystone Phil]

A Democratic pollster shows Obama only up three?

Obama has the edge here but this isn't good news. If another poll shows it this close, I think this one is back to being a toss up.

[Aizen]

Michigan is the weakest Kerry state for Obama. But it has been a while now since McCain has lead there. I still feel good about it.

[RJ]

Obama has held a consistent lead in Michigan so unless the next poll or 2 shows McCain in the lead it'll still be lean Obama.

Why is Michigan so close this time around?

[Flying Dog]

Why is Michigan so close this time around?

It's actually being almost identical to 2004, in fact.

[NOVA Green]

This seems about right.  But notice how McCain never goes up.  McCain will never be able to out run the huge turnout for Obama in the Eastern part of the state.  I predict that Obama will win the state while winning only a handful of major counties. The only smaller counties he will win will be in the UP and will have little effect on the race.

McCain really is screwed in relation to the eastern part of the state. He'll run up the margin in Wayne (hopefully white as well as black) and the death throw will be Oakland. Obama's going to win it huge (55%+). Whether McCain is put under the standard 47-48% a Republican recieves here will really depend on how good he is at turning out the Dutch Reformists in the western part of the state and how good Obama is at winning white-workers in Flint, Saginaw and Bay City. I also expect Obama to do very well in Lansing (Government workers)...now I'm just rambling...

Are you really predicting Obama will win in Oakland Co with over 55%? That would seem to be a record high for a Democrat in recent elections...

[Flying Dog]

This seems about right.  But notice how McCain never goes up.  McCain will never be able to out run the huge turnout for Obama in the Eastern part of the state.  I predict that Obama will win the state while winning only a handful of major counties. The only smaller counties he will win will be in the UP and will have little effect on the race.

McCain really is screwed in relation to the eastern part of the state. He'll run up the margin in Wayne (hopefully white as well as black) and the death throw will be Oakland. Obama's going to win it huge (55%+). Whether McCain is put under the standard 47-48% a Republican recieves here will really depend on how good he is at turning out the Dutch Reformists in the western part of the state and how good Obama is at winning white-workers in Flint, Saginaw and Bay City. I also expect Obama to do very well in Lansing (Government workers)...now I'm just rambling...

Are you really predicting Obama will win in Oakland Co with over 55%? That would seem to be a record high for a Democrat in recent elections...

Yes, it's one of the few counties where Kerry improved upon Gore's margin, I believe. It's the right set of white-flight offspring to make it be a good county for Obama. It'll be a fine example of white-guilt at its finest.

[NOVA Green]

This seems about right.  But notice how McCain never goes up.  McCain will never be able to out run the huge turnout for Obama in the Eastern part of the state.  I predict that Obama will win the state while winning only a handful of major counties. The only smaller counties he will win will be in the UP and will have little effect on the race.

McCain really is screwed in relation to the eastern part of the state. He'll run up the margin in Wayne (hopefully white as well as black) and the death throw will be Oakland. Obama's going to win it huge (55%+). Whether McCain is put under the standard 47-48% a Republican recieves here will really depend on how good he is at turning out the Dutch Reformists in the western part of the state and how good Obama is at winning white-workers in Flint, Saginaw and Bay City. I also expect Obama to do very well in Lansing (Government workers)...now I'm just rambling...

Are you really predicting Obama will win in Oakland Co with over 55%? That would seem to be a record high for a Democrat in recent elections...

Yes, it's one of the few counties where Kerry improved upon Gore's margin, I believe. It's the right set of white-flight offspring to make it be a good county for Obama. It'll be a fine example of white-guilt at its finest.

Considering that the last Democratic Presidential candidate to break 50% was in 1964, this still seems a bit of a stretch. I don't doubt that this area is trending Democratic, but if Obama were really leading by that type of margin in Oakland, he would have to be really collapsing in Macomb, and other parts of the state.

[Flying Dog]

This seems about right.  But notice how McCain never goes up.  McCain will never be able to out run the huge turnout for Obama in the Eastern part of the state.  I predict that Obama will win the state while winning only a handful of major counties. The only smaller counties he will win will be in the UP and will have little effect on the race.

McCain really is screwed in relation to the eastern part of the state. He'll run up the margin in Wayne (hopefully white as well as black) and the death throw will be Oakland. Obama's going to win it huge (55%+). Whether McCain is put under the standard 47-48% a Republican recieves here will really depend on how good he is at turning out the Dutch Reformists in the western part of the state and how good Obama is at winning white-workers in Flint, Saginaw and Bay City. I also expect Obama to do very well in Lansing (Government workers)...now I'm just rambling...

Are you really predicting Obama will win in Oakland Co with over 55%? That would seem to be a record high for a Democrat in recent elections...

Yes, it's one of the few counties where Kerry improved upon Gore's margin, I believe. It's the right set of white-flight offspring to make it be a good county for Obama. It'll be a fine example of white-guilt at its finest.

Considering that the last Democratic Presidential candidate to break 50% was in 1964, this still seems a bit of a stretch. I don't doubt that this area is trending Democratic, but if Obama were really leading by that type of margin in Oakland, he would have to be really collapsing in Macomb, and other parts of the state.

He probably is pulling sub-par margins in the 1st CD (Under 40%) and doing noticably worse if he's struggling in places like Saginaw, Macomb (He might get under 45%) and Flint (white parts)

I don't hold this PPP poll to be gold, though. I mean DeVos winning the Governorship, really?

[NOVA Green]

This seems about right.  But notice how McCain never goes up.  McCain will never be able to out run the huge turnout for Obama in the Eastern part of the state.  I predict that Obama will win the state while winning only a handful of major counties. The only smaller counties he will win will be in the UP and will have little effect on the race.

McCain really is screwed in relation to the eastern part of the state. He'll run up the margin in Wayne (hopefully white as well as black) and the death throw will be Oakland. Obama's going to win it huge (55%+). Whether McCain is put under the standard 47-48% a Republican recieves here will really depend on how good he is at turning out the Dutch Reformists in the western part of the state and how good Obama is at winning white-workers in Flint, Saginaw and Bay City. I also expect Obama to do very well in Lansing (Government workers)...now I'm just rambling...

Are you really predicting Obama will win in Oakland Co with over 55%? That would seem to be a record high for a Democrat in recent elections...

Yes, it's one of the few counties where Kerry improved upon Gore's margin, I believe. It's the right set of white-flight offspring to make it be a good county for Obama. It'll be a fine example of white-guilt at its finest.

Considering that the last Democratic Presidential candidate to break 50% was in 1964, this still seems a bit of a stretch. I don't doubt that this area is trending Democratic, but if Obama were really leading by that type of margin in Oakland, he would have to be really collapsing in Macomb, and other parts of the state.

He probably is pulling sub-par margins in the 1st CD (Under 40%) and doing noticably worse if he's struggling in places like Saginaw, Macomb (He might get under 45%) and Flint (white parts)

I don't hold this PPP poll to be gold, though. I mean DeVos winning the Governorship, really?

Well if we go with the recent Ras numbers from MI, then Obama might well end up closer to 55% than the 50% of the past 2-3 election cycles. My skepticism comes from most recent polls showing MI as fairly close, although I know there are many on this board that argue that MI has a tendency to break more Democratic in the last few months of a campaign.

[Flying Dog]

This seems about right.  But notice how McCain never goes up.  McCain will never be able to out run the huge turnout for Obama in the Eastern part of the state.  I predict that Obama will win the state while winning only a handful of major counties. The only smaller counties he will win will be in the UP and will have little effect on the race.

McCain really is screwed in relation to the eastern part of the state. He'll run up the margin in Wayne (hopefully white as well as black) and the death throw will be Oakland. Obama's going to win it huge (55%+). Whether McCain is put under the standard 47-48% a Republican recieves here will really depend on how good he is at turning out the Dutch Reformists in the western part of the state and how good Obama is at winning white-workers in Flint, Saginaw and Bay City. I also expect Obama to do very well in Lansing (Government workers)...now I'm just rambling...

Are you really predicting Obama will win in Oakland Co with over 55%? That would seem to be a record high for a Democrat in recent elections...

Yes, it's one of the few counties where Kerry improved upon Gore's margin, I believe. It's the right set of white-flight offspring to make it be a good county for Obama. It'll be a fine example of white-guilt at its finest.

Considering that the last Democratic Presidential candidate to break 50% was in 1964, this still seems a bit of a stretch. I don't doubt that this area is trending Democratic, but if Obama were really leading by that type of margin in Oakland, he would have to be really collapsing in Macomb, and other parts of the state.

He probably is pulling sub-par margins in the 1st CD (Under 40%) and doing noticably worse if he's struggling in places like Saginaw, Macomb (He might get under 45%) and Flint (white parts)

I don't hold this PPP poll to be gold, though. I mean DeVos winning the Governorship, really?

Well if we go with the recent Ras numbers from MI, then Obama might well end up closer to 55% than the 50% of the past 2-3 election cycles. My skepticism comes from most recent polls showing MI as fairly close, although I know there are many on this board that argue that MI has a tendency to break more Democratic in the last few months of a campaign.

Come October and talk to me if McCain is still this close in most polls or even leading...then there's a problem.

[NOVA Green]

This seems about right.  But notice how McCain never goes up.  McCain will never be able to out run the huge turnout for Obama in the Eastern part of the state.  I predict that Obama will win the state while winning only a handful of major counties. The only smaller counties he will win will be in the UP and will have little effect on the race.

McCain really is screwed in relation to the eastern part of the state. He'll run up the margin in Wayne (hopefully white as well as black) and the death throw will be Oakland. Obama's going to win it huge (55%+). Whether McCain is put under the standard 47-48% a Republican recieves here will really depend on how good he is at turning out the Dutch Reformists in the western part of the state and how good Obama is at winning white-workers in Flint, Saginaw and Bay City. I also expect Obama to do very well in Lansing (Government workers)...now I'm just rambling...

Are you really predicting Obama will win in Oakland Co with over 55%? That would seem to be a record high for a Democrat in recent elections...

Yes, it's one of the few counties where Kerry improved upon Gore's margin, I believe. It's the right set of white-flight offspring to make it be a good county for Obama. It'll be a fine example of white-guilt at its finest.

Considering that the last Democratic Presidential candidate to break 50% was in 1964, this still seems a bit of a stretch. I don't doubt that this area is trending Democratic, but if Obama were really leading by that type of margin in Oakland, he would have to be really collapsing in Macomb, and other parts of the state.

He probably is pulling sub-par margins in the 1st CD (Under 40%) and doing noticably worse if he's struggling in places like Saginaw, Macomb (He might get under 45%) and Flint (white parts)

I don't hold this PPP poll to be gold, though. I mean DeVos winning the Governorship, really?

Well if we go with the recent Ras numbers from MI, then Obama might well end up closer to 55% than the 50% of the past 2-3 election cycles. My skepticism comes from most recent polls showing MI as fairly close, although I know there are many on this board that argue that MI has a tendency to break more Democratic in the last few months of a campaign.

Come October and talk to me if McCain is still this close in most polls or even leading...then there's a problem.

Fair enough, although I'm hoping that is not the case. I'll still be watching Oakland County though so I can bump your thread if Obama tanks there