IN-09/SurveyUSA: Rep. Hill with a moderate lead over Sodrel

[Tender Branson]

Hill (D): 49%
Sodrel (R): 42%
Schansberg (L): 4%
Undecided: 5%

2006 Results:

Hill (D): 50%
Sodrel (R): 46%
Schansberg (L): 4%

SurveyUSA interviewed 900 adults from Indiana's 9th Congressional District 07/28/08 through 07/30/08; of the adults, 772 identified themselves as being registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 555 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November general election.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=05135a50-2a2d-4c4d-9cfb-cb0183e40375

[Keystone Phil]

Why does the Libertarian poll so high here?

[MarkWarner08]

Why does the Libertarian poll so high here?

Because IN-09ers are tired of the seeing the same "Baron Hill supports violent video games, pornography, gay marriage, and stem cell research" ads every two years.

Depending on who is elected POTUS and how that individual governs, Hill could be either very vulnerable or just normally vulnerable. If Obama has a Clintonesque first two years, Sodrel could win in 2010. After that, he'll be favored in 2012 because of redistricting (which the GOP will likely control).

To get there, he must avoid being shellacked this time.

[Mr.Phips]

Why does the Libertarian poll so high here?

Because IN-09ers are tired of the seeing the same "Baron Hill supports violent video games, pornography, gay marriage, and stem cell research" ads every two years.

Depending on who is elected POTUS and how that individual governs, Hill could be either very vulnerable or just normally vulnerable. If Obama has a Clintonesque first two years, Sodrel could win in 2010. After that, he'll be favored in 2012 because of redistricting (which the GOP will likely control).

To get there, he must avoid being shellacked this time.

I think Sodrel will likely quit if he cant win this time.  Otherwise he will begin to look like a perennial joke candidate. 

In 2012, he will Republicans make this seat more Republican?  If they move Monroe county out that will just make Ellsworth safe in IN-08. 

[Keystone Phil]

I think Sodrel will likely quit if he cant win this time.  Otherwise he will begin to look like a perennial joke candidate. 

I love that this seat goes back and forth.

[Mr.Phips]

I think Sodrel will likely quit if he cant win this time.  Otherwise he will begin to look like a perennial joke candidate. 

I love that this seat goes back and forth.

The only other seat that did this was NC-11 every year in the 1980's except for 1988.  After losing in 1986 and 1988, the Republican finally quit.  Ironically, another Republican(Charles Taylor) came and beat the Democrat in 1990. 

[MarkWarner08]

Why does the Libertarian poll so high here?

Because IN-09ers are tired of the seeing the same "Baron Hill supports violent video games, pornography, gay marriage, and stem cell research" ads every two years.

Depending on who is elected POTUS and how that individual governs, Hill could be either very vulnerable or just normally vulnerable. If Obama has a Clintonesque first two years, Sodrel could win in 2010. After that, he'll be favored in 2012 because of redistricting (which the GOP will likely control).

To get there, he must avoid being shellacked this time.

I think Sodrel will likely quit if he cant win this time.  Otherwise he will begin to look like a perennial joke candidate. 

In 2012, he will Republicans make this seat more Republican?  If they move Monroe county out that will just make Ellsworth safe in IN-08. 

Ellsworth is already safe. He's probably the perfect Democrat for the district. Even in a wave year, he and Heath Shuler should survive if they continue to vote their districts.

[Mr.Phips]

Why does the Libertarian poll so high here?

Because IN-09ers are tired of the seeing the same "Baron Hill supports violent video games, pornography, gay marriage, and stem cell research" ads every two years.

Depending on who is elected POTUS and how that individual governs, Hill could be either very vulnerable or just normally vulnerable. If Obama has a Clintonesque first two years, Sodrel could win in 2010. After that, he'll be favored in 2012 because of redistricting (which the GOP will likely control).

To get there, he must avoid being shellacked this time.

I think Sodrel will likely quit if he cant win this time.  Otherwise he will begin to look like a perennial joke candidate. 

In 2012, he will Republicans make this seat more Republican?  If they move Monroe county out that will just make Ellsworth safe in IN-08. 

Ellsworth is already safe. He's probably the perfect Democrat for the district. Even in a wave year, he and Heath Shuler should survive if they continue to vote their districts.

How about Joe Donnelly up in IN-02?  He also seems to fit his district almost perfectly.  His district is also a tough one to make more Republican.  If they try to take South Bend oout of the district, they would have to put it in IN-03, which would likely turn that district into a real battleground. 

[MarkWarner08]

Why does the Libertarian poll so high here?

Because IN-09ers are tired of the seeing the same "Baron Hill supports violent video games, pornography, gay marriage, and stem cell research" ads every two years.

Depending on who is elected POTUS and how that individual governs, Hill could be either very vulnerable or just normally vulnerable. If Obama has a Clintonesque first two years, Sodrel could win in 2010. After that, he'll be favored in 2012 because of redistricting (which the GOP will likely control).

To get there, he must avoid being shellacked this time.

I think Sodrel will likely quit if he cant win this time.  Otherwise he will begin to look like a perennial joke candidate. 

In 2012, he will Republicans make this seat more Republican?  If they move Monroe county out that will just make Ellsworth safe in IN-08. 

Ellsworth is already safe. He's probably the perfect Democrat for the district. Even in a wave year, he and Heath Shuler should survive if they continue to vote their districts.

How about Joe Donnelly up in IN-02?  He also seems to fit his district almost perfectly.  His district is also a tough one to make more Republican.  If they try to take South Bend oout of the district, they would have to put it in IN-03, which would likely turn that district into a real battleground. 

Yeah. I'd say the same for IN-02.  The DCCC had the most recruiting success last cycle in IN U.S. House races. Convincing Donnelly to run again (he'd won a respectable 45% in 2004), finding a Sheriff to run agains Hostettler and bringing back Baron were all solid moves that paid off. Even Tom Hayhurst was a decent candidate.

[Mr.Phips]

Why does the Libertarian poll so high here?

Because IN-09ers are tired of the seeing the same "Baron Hill supports violent video games, pornography, gay marriage, and stem cell research" ads every two years.

Depending on who is elected POTUS and how that individual governs, Hill could be either very vulnerable or just normally vulnerable. If Obama has a Clintonesque first two years, Sodrel could win in 2010. After that, he'll be favored in 2012 because of redistricting (which the GOP will likely control).

To get there, he must avoid being shellacked this time.

I think Sodrel will likely quit if he cant win this time.  Otherwise he will begin to look like a perennial joke candidate. 

In 2012, he will Republicans make this seat more Republican?  If they move Monroe county out that will just make Ellsworth safe in IN-08. 

Ellsworth is already safe. He's probably the perfect Democrat for the district. Even in a wave year, he and Heath Shuler should survive if they continue to vote their districts.

How about Joe Donnelly up in IN-02?  He also seems to fit his district almost perfectly.  His district is also a tough one to make more Republican.  If they try to take South Bend oout of the district, they would have to put it in IN-03, which would likely turn that district into a real battleground. 

Yeah. I'd say the same for IN-02.  The DCCC had the most recruiting success last cycle in IN U.S. House races. Convincing Donnelly to run again (he'd won a respectable 45% in 2004), finding a Sheriff to run agains Hostettler and bringing back Baron were all solid moves that paid off. Even Tom Hayhurst was a decent candidate.

Very true.  This is the one state where the DCCC actually did almost perfectly in 2006.  Its funny in regards to IN-02, Chuck Todd predicted that Donnelly would be the "one-term wonder" of the three Indiana seats the night before the election.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNYMYTySOS0&feature=related

[Sam Spade]

Why does the Libertarian poll so high here?

Because IN-09ers are tired of the seeing the same "Baron Hill supports violent video games, pornography, gay marriage, and stem cell research" ads every two years.

Depending on who is elected POTUS and how that individual governs, Hill could be either very vulnerable or just normally vulnerable. If Obama has a Clintonesque first two years, Sodrel could win in 2010. After that, he'll be favored in 2012 because of redistricting (which the GOP will likely control).

To get there, he must avoid being shellacked this time.

I think Sodrel will likely quit if he cant win this time.  Otherwise he will begin to look like a perennial joke candidate. 

In 2012, he will Republicans make this seat more Republican?  If they move Monroe county out that will just make Ellsworth safe in IN-08. 

Ellsworth is already safe. He's probably the perfect Democrat for the district. Even in a wave year, he and Heath Shuler should survive if they continue to vote their districts.

Ellsworth is certainly safe right now.  But very few places in Indiana are ever safe if the voters are in angry mode.

[Democratic Hawk]

[Badlands17]

I live in Ellsworth's district, and his opponent (Greg Goode) is pretty much Ellsworth except he will never EVER raise taxes on anything or anyone. What a great platform after having a President who got us into a $10 trillion debt with that type of talk. Most I've talked to have said Ellsworth does a good job, and the chance of Goode winning is pretty slim.

As for IN-09, Sodrel is more likely to win than Goode, but that seat is probably more affected by national political climate than just about any other race in the state (or probably the nation). You've got liberals in Monroe Co., moderates on the other side of Louisville's metro area, and conservatives in between at just about equal proportions, and who wins more depends on who's the party with the good cards that particular year than anything, which means Hill is favored.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ellsworth is certainly safe right now.  But very few places in Indiana are ever safe if the voters are in angry mode.

Yes; fascinating really. After the 1990 elections, for example, the Democrats held eight out of ten districts in Indiana.

[Mr.Phips]

Ellsworth is certainly safe right now.  But very few places in Indiana are ever safe if the voters are in angry mode.

Yes; fascinating really. After the 1990 elections, for example, the Democrats held eight out of ten districts in Indiana.

Yeah, thats especially fascinating since Republicans drew the lines in 1982 to get a 7-3 edge in the House delegation.