I think the 269-269 is far more probable than most people would care to admit.
MacFarlan's maps are interesting, but I just don't see how Michigan can go GOP. Or Wisconsin, really, when you get right down to nuts and bolts and the ground strength Obama has there.
If I were in Vegas and able to set odds to draw action, I'd make it about 12 to 1 against it happening. In reality, I'd say it's about 25 or 30 to 1 against.
More likely, I think, is a clear winner. Maybe even by a larger margin than we expect, like Reagan over Carter in 1980. For now, I would say that person is more likely to be Obama, though that could change.
Happy Campaign 08,
Punditty
http://www.allvoices.com/users/Punditty
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