The Tied Election (49-49-2)

[Sam Spade]

The basic idea is to create a map for the country of where I think the election will lie if we end up in a dead-even tie come November 4 (i.e. the 49-49 election).

It is mainly based on my gut instincts for now, with some polling.  Polling will grow more important on this table as time passes.

In 2004, the 3rd party vote was at 1% - I suspect it will be a tad higher this year, so the table will have a flat 2% third party vote between the states.

I will, of course, update the numbers with some regularity.

If you're a Democrat, you can amuse yourself and shift Colorado over, so long as the result is still 49-49.  I just suspect that's what will happen in that state at present.

2008 Election Tie (Obama-McCain)

State	Obama%	McCain%	3rd%	Swing%	ObEV	McEV
Alabama	38.00	60.00	2.00	R+22.00		9
Alaska	35.75	62.25	2.00	R+26.50		3
Arizona	42.25	55.75	2.00	R+13.50		10
Arkansas	42.75	55.25	2.00	R+12.50		6
California	55.00	43.00	2.00	D+12.00	55
Colorado	49.00	49.00	2.00	0.00	9(t)	9(t)
Connecticut	55.50	42.50	2.00	D+13.00	7
Delaware	55.75	42.25	2.00	D+13.50	3
D.C.	90.00	8.00	2.00	D+82.00	3
Florida	47.00	51.00	2.00	R+4.00		27
Georgia	42.50	55.50	2.00	R+13.00		15
Hawaii	60.50	37.50	2.00	D+23.00	4
Idaho	33.75	64.25	2.00	R+30.50		4
Illinois	58.25	39.75	2.00	D+18.50	21
Indiana	45.00	53.00	2.00	R+8.00		11
Iowa	51.25	46.75	2.00	D+4.50	7
Kansas	38.75	59.25	2.00	R+20.50		6
Kentucky	39.00	59.00	2.00	R+20.00		8
Louisiana	41.75	56.25	2.00	R+14.50		9
Maine	54.75	43.25	2.00	D+11.50	4
Maryland	56.75	41.25	2.00	D+15.50	10
Massachusetts	57.50	40.50	2.00	D+17.00	12
Michigan	50.00	48.00	2.00	D+2.00	17
Minnesota	52.00	46.00	2.00	D+6.00	10
Mississippi	42.00	56.00	2.00	R+14.00		6
Missouri	46.00	52.00	2.00	R+6.00		11
Montana	45.00	53.00	2.00	R+8.00		3
Nebraska	35.00	63.00	2.00	R+28.00		5
Nevada	48.25	49.75	2.00	R+1.50		5
New Hampshire	49.75	48.25	2.00	D+1.50	4
New Jersey	53.25	44.75	2.00	D+8.50	15
New Mexico	49.50	48.50	2.00	D+1.00	5
New York	58.00	40.00	2.00	D+18.00	31
North Carolina	44.00	54.00	2.00	R+10.00		15
North Dakota	43.50	54.50	2.00	R+11.00		3
Ohio	48.00	50.00	2.00	R+2.00		20
Oklahoma	33.50	64.50	2.00	R+31.00		7
Oregon	52.50	45.50	2.00	D+7.00	7
Pennsylvania	50.00	48.00	2.00	D+2.00	21
Rhode Island	58.00	40.00	2.00	D+18.00	4
South Carolina	42.25	55.75	2.00	R+13.50		8
South Dakota	42.50	55.50	2.00	R+13.00		3
Tennessee	42.50	55.50	2.00	R+13.00		11
Texas	41.50	56.50	2.00	R+15.00		34
Utah	30.00	68.00	2.00	R+38.00		5
Vermont	62.75	35.25	2.00	D+27.50	3
Virginia	48.00	50.00	2.00	R+2.00		13
Washington	54.00	44.00	2.00	D+10.00	11
West Virginia	42.00	56.00	2.00	R+14.00		5
Wisconsin	50.50	47.50	2.00	D+3.00	10
Wyoming	34.50	63.50	2.00	R+29.00		3
TOTALS	49.00	49.00	2.00	+/-0.00	264(270)	274(268)

[Person Man]

Colorado will go into recount. lol

[Sam Spade]

The post above has been filled in.  For reference, I provide 2004's numbers.  I may do 2000 at some later date.

(also get rid of that post above AW - it ruins the flow.. 

2004 Election Swing (Kerry-Bush)

State	Kerry%	Bush%	3rd%	Swing%	KeEV	BuEV
Alabama	36.84	62.46	0.70	R+23.16		9
Alaska	35.52	61.07	3.41	R+23.09		3
Arizona	44.40	54.87	0.73	R+8.01		10
Arkansas	44.55	54.31	1.16	R+7.30		6
California	54.31	44.36	1.33	D+12.41	55
Colorado	47.02	51.69	1.29	R+2.21		9
Connecticut	54.31	43.95	1.74	D+12.82	7
Delaware	53.35	45.75	0.90	D+10.06	3
D.C.	89.18	9.34	1.48	D+82.30	3
Florida	47.09	52.10	0.81	R+2.55		27
Georgia	41.37	57.97	0.66	R+14.14		15
Hawaii	54.01	45.26	0.73	D+11.21	4
Idaho	30.26	68.38	1.36	R+35.66		4
Illinois	54.82	44.48	0.70	D+12.80	21
Indiana	39.26	59.94	0.80	R+18.22		11
Iowa	49.23	49.90	0.87	D+1.79		7
Kansas	36.62	62.00	1.38	R+22.92		6
Kentucky	39.69	59.55	0.86	R+17.40		8
Louisiana	42.22	56.72	1.06	R+12.04		9
Maine	53.57	44.58	1.85	D+11.45	4
Maryland	55.91	42.93	1.16	D+15.44	10
Massachusetts	61.94	36.78	1.28	D+27.62	12
Michigan	51.23	47.81	0.96	D+5.88	17
Minnesota	51.09	47.61	1.30	D+5.94	10
Mississippi	39.75	59.44	0.81	R+17.23		6
Missouri	46.10	53.30	0.60	R+4.74		11
Montana	38.56	59.07	2.37	R+18.05		3
Nebraska	32.68	65.90	2.42	R+30.76		5
Nevada	47.88	50.47	1.65	R+0.13		5
New Hampshire	50.24	48.87	0.89	D+3.83	4
New Jersey	52.92	46.24	0.84	D+9.14	15
New Mexico	49.05	49.84	1.11	D+1.67		5
New York	58.37	40.08	1.55	D+20.75	31
North Carolina	43.58	56.02	0.40	R+9.98		15
North Dakota	35.50	62.86	1.64	R+24.90		3
Ohio	48.71	50.81	0.48	D+0.36		20
Oklahoma	34.43	65.57	0.00	R+28.68		7
Oregon	51.35	47.19	1.46	D+6.62	7
Pennsylvania	50.92	48.42	0.66	D+4.96	21
Rhode Island	59.42	38.67	1.91	D+23.21	4
South Carolina	40.90	57.98	1.12	R+14.62		8
South Dakota	38.44	59.91	1.65	R+19.01		3
Tennessee	42.53	56.80	0.67	R+11.81		11
Texas	38.22	61.09	0.69	R+20.41		34
Utah	26.00	71.54	2.46	R+43.08		5
Vermont	58.94	38.80	2.26	D+22.60	3
Virginia	45.48	53.68	0.84	R+5.74		13
Washington	52.82	45.64	1.54	D+9.64	11
West Virginia	43.20	56.06	0.74	R+10.40		5
Wisconsin	49.70	49.32	0.98	D+2.84	10
Wyoming	29.07	68.86	2.07	R+37.33		3
TOTALS	50.73	48.27	1.00	R+2.46	252	286

[Torie]

This is the game I play. I lost my spreadsheet where I checked to see that the state percentages  resulted in a national popular vote tie. My numbers were very similar to yours, except I had Nevada with a Dem bias. Since then Nevada per the polls has had a GOP bias, so I can understand your figures. I would put the GOP bias at maybe 1.5% however. Your Wyoming figure also looks very fat to me.

Below is what I created a couple of months ago or thereabouts. It obviously needs a tune up in a few states.

[Josh/Devilman88]

It look about right to me, EV wise, but I think I would have Obama winning CO by +.01, NC would be +7 McCain.

[Sam Spade]

This is the game I play. I lost my spreadsheet where I checked to see that the state percentages  resulted in a national popular vote tie. My numbers were very similar to yours, except I had Nevada with a Dem bias. Since then Nevada per the polls has had a GOP bias, so I can understand your figures. I would put the GOP bias at maybe 1.5% however. Your Wyoming figure also looks very fat to me.

Nevada historically doesn't like Southern Presidents very much, especially not their second terms.  I have a gut feeling here and so far the polling backs me up.

You may be well right on Wyoming - I don't doubt that.  I want to see how Idaho and Utah evolve polling-wise (if we get any) before making any changes on Wyoming - I suspect the three will move in tandem (with maybe Wyoming swinging slightly more Dem).  Right now, I've just done a base 10% swing for all three.

After all, the swing for areas with strong Mormon populations against Republicans during Republican third term presidencies in the modern era (i.e. 1960, 1976, 1988 and 1992) is considerably less than that for the real anti-incumbent states in the mountain west (i.e. Montana and South Dakota - well SD isn't really mountain west).  Actually, if I didn't think Montana moved to the right since the 1988-1992 period, I'd move it even closer to even.

The state that I can't figure out right now is North Dakota.  The only thing I can figure is that some sizable swing is occurring among those with German Protestant background.  Which would actually explain some other state results we're seeing if accurate and might cause me to make some slight adjustments on this map.  But I'll wait until September for that.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The state that I can't figure out right now is North Dakota.  The only thing I can figure is that some sizable swing is occurring among those with German Protestant background.

I doubt that's what's going on here actually.

This is roughly what a 50/50 election in ND looks like (Actually a D 52, R 48 map):



Now compare that, to these:
http://www.valpo.edu/geomet/pics/geo200/pct_norwegian.pdf
http://www.valpo.edu/geomet/pics/geo200/pct_german.pdf

[Sam Spade]

The state that I can't figure out right now is North Dakota.  The only thing I can figure is that some sizable swing is occurring among those with German Protestant background.

I doubt that's what's going on here actually.

This is roughly what a 50/50 election in ND looks like (Actually a D 52, R 48 map):



Now compare that, to these:
http://www.valpo.edu/geomet/pics/geo200/pct_norwegian.pdf
http://www.valpo.edu/geomet/pics/geo200/pct_german.pdf

I don't disagree with your assumption here - and that may be quite correct - i.e. that it's the Norwegians, who are the historically Democratic voters around these parts.

But my answer would kill two birds with one stone - namely Indiana.  We'll see.

[Torie]

I am not sure why you are linking Wyoming with Utah and Idaho, since Wyoming is light on Mormons. What is the basis for your German Protestant hypothesis? 

[Sam Spade]

I am not sure why you are linking Wyoming with Utah and Idaho, since Wyoming is light on Mormons. What is the basis for your German Protestant hypothesis? 

Primary showings - kind of.  It's a weak handle to grasp onto - but right now I'm running with weak handles on the ND/IN axis - as opposed to MT/SD/AK. 

Ok, so WY's Mormon population is a decent bit less than ID.  That's a fair assessment to warrant a second look.  I didn't say this thing wouldn't change. 

[Sam Spade]

Reworked it a tad based on the comments above.

Additionally, I made it so that no state is less than +1 GOP/+1 DEM.  That will change as we get closer to the election, but there's no use in doing the math right now.  Only two states fell into that category in 2004 anyways (although more did in 2000).

[War on Want]

I will make my own soon.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The state that I can't figure out right now is North Dakota.  The only thing I can figure is that some sizable swing is occurring among those with German Protestant background.

I doubt that's what's going on here actually.

This is roughly what a 50/50 election in ND looks like (Actually a D 52, R 48 map):



Now compare that, to these:
http://www.valpo.edu/geomet/pics/geo200/pct_norwegian.pdf
http://www.valpo.edu/geomet/pics/geo200/pct_german.pdf

I don't disagree with your assumption here - and that may be quite correct - i.e. that it's the Norwegians, who are the historically Democratic voters around these parts.

But my answer would kill two birds with one stone - namely Indiana.  We'll see.

Maybe the swing is more along the lines of WASP-y whites. After all class-wise and identity-wise, Scandinavian and German Protestants aren't much different from WASPs. Hell, even German Catholics are basically WASPs.

[Sam Spade]

State	Obama%	McCain%	U/O%	Swing%	Comp%	ObEV	McEV	Date
Alabama	39.00	60.00	1.00	R+21.00	D+1.00		9	(9/23)
Alaska	33.00	64.00	3.00	R+33.00	R+6.50		3	(9/9)
Arizona	38.00	57.00	3.00	R+19.00	R+5.50		10	(7/30)
Arkansas	39.00	52.00	9.00	R+13.00	R+0.50		6	(7/17)
California	56.00	39.00	5.00	D+17.00	D+5.00	55		(9/22)
Colorado	50.00	47.00	3.00	D+3.00	D+3.00		9	(9/23)
Connecticut	53.00	41.00	6.00	D+12.00	R+1.00	7		(9/16)
Delaware	55.00	43.00	2.00	D+12.00	R+1.50	3		(9/13)
D.C.	Not polled					3
Florida	46.00	51.00	3.00	R+5.00	R+1.00		27	(9/21)
Georgia	43.00	54.00	3.00	R+11.00	D+2.00		15	(9/16)
Hawaii	68.00	27.00	5.00	D+41.00	D+18.00	4		(9/23)
Idaho	29.00	68.00	3.00	R+39.00	R+8.50		4	(9/9)
Illinois	56.00	40.00	4.00	D+16.00	R+2.50	21		(9/17)
Indiana	47.00	49.00	4.00	R+2.00	D+6.00		11	(9/18)
Iowa	49.00	44.00	7.00	D+5.00	D+0.50	7		(8/7)
Kansas	38.00	58.00	4.00	R+20.00	D+0.50		6	(9/18)
Kentucky	43.00	52.00	5.00	R+9.00	D+11.00		8	(7/29)
Louisiana	39.00	57.00	4.00	R+18.00	R+3.50		9	(8/17)
Maine	50.00	46.00	4.00	D+4.00	D+7.50	4		(9/17)
Maryland	60.00	37.00	3.00	D+23.00	D+7.50	10		(9/20)
Massachusetts	54.00	38.00	8.00	D+16.00	R+1.00	12		(8/5)
Michigan	51.00	44.00	5.00	D+7.00	D+5.00	17		(9/21)
Minnesota	52.00	44.00	4.00	D+8.00	D+2.00	10		(9/18)
Mississippi	43.00	56.00	1.00	R+13.00	D+1.00		6	(8/21)
Missouri	46.00	51.00	3.00	R+5.00	D+1.00		11	(9/11)
Montana	42.00	53.00	5.00	R+11.00	R+3.00		3	(9/18)
Nebraska	36.00	55.00	9.00	R+19.00	D+9.00		5	(7/28)
Nevada	46.00	49.00	5.00	R+3.00	R+1.50		5	(9/11)
New Hampshire	47.00	49.00	4.00	R+2.00	R+3.50	4		(9/23)
New Jersey	55.00	42.00	3.00	D+13.00	D+4.50	15		(9/16)
New Mexico	47.00	49.00	6.00	R+2.00	R+3.00	5		(9/8)
New York	55.00	42.00	3.00	D+13.00	R+5.00	31		(9/15)
North Carolina	47.00	50.00	3.00	R+3.00	D+7.00		15	(9/18)
North Dakota	41.00	55.00	4.00	R+14.00	R+3.00		3	(9/8)
Ohio	46.00	50.00	4.00	R+4.00	R+2.00		20	(9/21)
Oklahoma	32.00	63.00	5.00	R+31.00	0.00		7	(9/11)
Oregon	51.00	47.00	2.00	D+4.00	R+3.00	7		(9/15)
Pennsylvania	48.00	45.00	7.00	D+3.00	D+1.00	21t		(9/21)
Rhode Island	58.00	39.00	3.00	D+19.00	D+1.00	4		(9/13)
South Carolina	45.00	51.00	4.00	R+6.00	D+7.50		8	(9/18)
South Dakota	37.00	54.00	9.00	R+17.00	R+4.00		3	(9/9)
Tennessee	35.00	60.00	5.00	R+25.00	R+12.00		11	(8/20)
Texas	44.00	54.00	2.00	R+10.00	D+5.00		34	(8/21)
Utah	32.00	64.00	4.00	R+32.00	D+6.00		5	(9/10)
Vermont	60.00	36.00	4.00	D+24.00	R+3.50	3		(9/13)
Virginia	48.00	50.00	2.00	R+2.00	0.00		13t	(9/21)
Washington	49.00	47.00	4.00	D+2.00	R+8.00	11		(9/10)
West Virginia	37.00	45.00	2.00	R+8.00	D+6.00		5	(6/2)
Wisconsin	48.00	46.00	6.00	D+2.00	R+1.00	10		(9/15)
Wyoming	39.00	58.00	3.00	R+19.00	D+10.00		3	(9/10)

[Beet]

The basic idea is to create a map for the country of where I think the election will lie if we end up in a dead-even tie come November 4 (i.e. the 49-49 election).

So you think Pennsylvania is still less Democratic than Michigan this year?

[Sam Spade]

The basic idea is to create a map for the country of where I think the election will lie if we end up in a dead-even tie come November 4 (i.e. the 49-49 election).

So you think Pennsylvania is still less Democratic than Michigan this year?

I still think so.  I am willing to be convinced otherwise as time passes (through polling), but not right now.  (too early) 

To be quite honest, I really don't have a good handle on Michigan right now. 

States under a lot of turmoil can often act strangely and Michigan has been known to jump around a bit historically, unlike OH and FL (historically lean R) and PA (historically lean D).

[Sam Spade]

Rasmussen comparison updated.

[Beet]

The basic idea is to create a map for the country of where I think the election will lie if we end up in a dead-even tie come November 4 (i.e. the 49-49 election).

So you think Pennsylvania is still less Democratic than Michigan this year?

I still think so.  I am willing to be convinced otherwise as time passes (through polling), but not right now.  (too early) 

To be quite honest, I really don't have a good handle on Michigan right now. 

States under a lot of turmoil can often act strangely and Michigan has been known to jump around a bit historically, unlike OH and FL (historically lean R) and PA (historically lean D).

Ok... and for the totals, how did you weight? Assumed the same proportional turnout as 2004?

[Sam Spade]

The basic idea is to create a map for the country of where I think the election will lie if we end up in a dead-even tie come November 4 (i.e. the 49-49 election).

So you think Pennsylvania is still less Democratic than Michigan this year?

I still think so.  I am willing to be convinced otherwise as time passes (through polling), but not right now.  (too early) 

To be quite honest, I really don't have a good handle on Michigan right now. 

States under a lot of turmoil can often act strangely and Michigan has been known to jump around a bit historically, unlike OH and FL (historically lean R) and PA (historically lean D).

Ok... and for the totals, how did you weight? Assumed the same proportional turnout as 2004?

Yes, I weight just based off of 2004 numbers. 

But don't think I don't account for where I think differences in turnout will occur in 2008 - that's where my gut instinct comes in and it's factored into the Swing estimates...

[Sam Spade]

I think this evening (or in the next few days), I'm going to turn the Rasmussen list into a table as well, since he appears to be doing something close to 50-state polling this year (a nice addition, I might add).

[Sam Spade]

I have finished the Rasmussen polling list - note that this includes leaners in most of the recent polls.  I may do Rasmussen without leaners soon to show the distinction.

To fill in the gaps where he hasn't polled, I have used the SUSA polls from February, with the exception of IN, where I used SUSA's poll of 6/23.  Note that I haven't flipped IN based off of that poll - because I want to see Rasmussen first.

The average is weighted against actual voters in 2004.  It's not perfect, but decent and good enough for our purposes.

The result as of today - Obama +1.81%

[Sam Spade]

Rasmussen w/o leaners table has been posted.

[Gustaf]

Interesting. I will comment at some point.

[Sam Spade]

With the flippage of Florida per Rasmussen polling, this becomes the first day in quite a while where McCain leads in an amalgam of the Rasmussen polling - with leaners EV - 274 to 264.  He is still behind 1.50% in the PV according to that count.  I do note that I give Indiana to McCain even though the poll that I'm using to calculate it is SUSA's Obama +1 lead poll.  If it were moved over to where I expect McCain actually is in Indiana - it would be Obama +1.36% in the PV.  On Montana and North Dakota, I have given both to McCain primarily because he leads in either the leaner or non-leaner version whereas being tied in the other.  That's the way I'll treat all those in the future.

In the without leaners version, Obama is still ahead 277-261 because Virginia flips back to Obama there.  I have Obama +2.01% in the PV there not calculating the Indiana caveat as above.

After Obama announces his VP on Friday, I expect the polling to jump around quite a bit over the conventions the next couple of weeks.  I will still continue this analysis, but be careful then.

[Sam Spade]

Since we're far enough into the election and my analysis has some time to seep in, let me toss out what states I am concerned about presently vis-a-vis polling and why, etc.

State where you think I'm wrong too... 
1. Delaware (not enough polling and if my comments about NJ and PA are correct, then they certainly apply to Delaware too)
2. Illinois (one Rasmussen poll showing McCain performing better than what I would expect can be tossed, but two?, I get less certain.  If McCain is performing better than Bush 2004 vis-a-vis the Illinois suburbs if Bush would have faced an Illinoisian, then the Rasmussen result would make sense, but I'm not there yet.)
3. Indiana (not enough polling - also I really suspect I may be undercutting McCain here a couple of points.  I have my reasons.)
4. Louisiana (most of the deep South (i.e. the South with blacks) is overpolling Obama right now, but not Louisiana.  The movement from New Orleans is simply not enough - so either one of two things is occurring - 1) they're underpolling blacks because they can't find them and it should return to where I think it is; or 2) the Cajun whites like Obama less than they liked Kerry).
5. Michigan (this state is the true wild-card this year, trust me)
6. Minnesota (considering the way North Dakota is supposedly acting, one would expect Minnesota to act similarly - and it was - but now when a number of polls say otherwise, I may consider reevaluating.  I've already built in a North Dakota shift in my analysis, but not as much of one in MN.)
7. Montana (not enough polling - I really don't feel confident about this state knowing its history)
8. New Jersey (the Philly suburbs have not moved very much towards McCain as I expected and the even richer New Jersey side has moved against him.  The NYC suburbs are acting about as I expect and so is Boston, but I can't figure this one.  I want to see more polls before I change, however.)
9. Pennsylvania (see NJ)