The Tied Election (49-49-2)

[Sam Spade]

I'll be doing a full post-convention/post-VP pick update on this tomorrow, probably.

[Sam Spade]

Finally updated.  Colorado is the base point at +/-0.00%.  Place as you wish, McCain/Obama supporters. 

[Nym90]

I take it you don't believe the last two polls in Virginia.

I don't either necessarily, but would be interested to hear your reasons.

[Sam Spade]

I take it you don't believe the last two polls in Virginia.

I don't either necessarily, but would be interested to hear your reasons.

Not necessarily.  One poll is one poll, two polls may be saying something.

With these numbers, however, I'm more relying on gut more than polling at this point.  At some point, that'll change.

[Gustaf]

Ok, I have a question for you. You have Indiana as McCain +12. But we have not had a single poll out of Indiana this year giving him that margin (I know the race has not been tied all year but, still). The average of all Indiana polls this year is McCain +4.5%. Sure, most of these polls are crappy and/or outdated, but still. They seem to indicate something like McCain +6 rather than +12 to me, so it seems you don't agree with it. Why?

[Alcon]

Ok, I have a question for you. You have Indiana as McCain +12. But we have not had a single poll out of Indiana this year giving him that margin (I know the race has not been tied all year but, still). The average of all Indiana polls this year is McCain +4.5%. Sure, most of these polls are crappy and/or outdated, but still. They seem to indicate something like McCain +6 rather than +12 to me, so it seems you don't agree with it. Why?

I agree with Sam, in a way.  Obama has been out-polling expectations in Indiana astoundingly this entire elections season.  All things considered, McCain should be up about 15%.  The polls are saying about 7%.  My inclination is that Obama is out-doing expectations, but not by 8%.

[Gustaf]

I'm not saying he's wrong. I'd expect Indiana to be more McCain-leaning too. But if there is more than "it looks wrong" I'd like to hear it.

While I'm at it: Tennessee at +13.5 underestimates McCain vis-a-vis the polls. You also have a considerable difference of 6.5% between Kentucky and Tennessee. The gap was 4% in 2004, the polls suggest a smaller gap this year, you go in the other direction. How come?

Furthermore, you have Obama doing greatly in the Pacific Northwest. It's what we all expected, but recent polling seems to say otherwise. What makes the recent polls wrong, is the question here.

[Sam Spade]

Ok, I have a question for you. You have Indiana as McCain +12. But we have not had a single poll out of Indiana this year giving him that margin (I know the race has not been tied all year but, still). The average of all Indiana polls this year is McCain +4.5%. Sure, most of these polls are crappy and/or outdated, but still. They seem to indicate something like McCain +6 rather than +12 to me, so it seems you don't agree with it. Why?

I originally had it at McCain +8, but decided to move it up a bit considering the pick of Palin should help a bit in small-town Indiana.  I may move it back - Indiana is one state where I really don't have a good feel on right now.

[Sam Spade]

Ok, I have a question for you. You have Indiana as McCain +12. But we have not had a single poll out of Indiana this year giving him that margin (I know the race has not been tied all year but, still). The average of all Indiana polls this year is McCain +4.5%. Sure, most of these polls are crappy and/or outdated, but still. They seem to indicate something like McCain +6 rather than +12 to me, so it seems you don't agree with it. Why?

I agree with Sam, in a way.  Obama has been out-polling expectations in Indiana astoundingly this entire elections season.  All things considered, McCain should be up about 15%.  The polls are saying about 7%.  My inclination is that Obama is out-doing expectations, but not by 8%.

Ya, I moved it back to M+8, where I had it pre-convention and moved NY back to where I had it pre-convention. (O+18)  The polls seem to fit this type of race more.

[Nym90]

Indiana certainly is perplexing. Enough polls have shown the same thing that I think we have to start saying history be damned and go by the numbers.

Just weird though because there seems to be no particular reason why Obama should do so well there; he didn't even win the primary in the state. Only thing I can guess is that he's doing amazingly well in Indianapolis and its suburbs and in Lake County.

[Sam Spade]

Indiana certainly is perplexing. Enough polls have shown the same thing that I think we have to start saying history be damned and go by the numbers.

Just weird though because there seems to be no particular reason why Obama should do so well there; he didn't even win the primary in the state. Only thing I can guess is that he's doing amazingly well in Indianapolis and its suburbs and in Lake County.

I guess I can see him pushing into the Indy suburbs a bit, but not that much, especially where the race stuff gets a bit problematic.  Lake County has always had a lot of racial tensions and working class Democrats, places where he's struggled elsewhere (and to be quite honest struggled in the primary - that county was a classic white vs. black area in the primary too, oddly enough).  Certainly he can't be gaining in the SE part of the state (Appalachia).

Basically, if Obama's making gains, perhaps we can note them by where he's campaigning.

I've seen him a lot in SW Indiana and NE Indiana (maybe I'm getting this wrong, but I don't think), so that's where I would guess it is.  NE Indiana, as I've mentioned before, is historically Republican, but gets the Democratic itch very strongly in bad economic times.  For example, a 15-20 point shift in IN-03 from 2004 wouldn't surprise me, actually.

SW Indiana is another place that typically votes much more Republican in Prez elections than in state elections, so I could see a strong shift there too (probably not 15-20 points, but still, at least 10). 

I'm at a loss to explain any more than that. 

[Nym90]

Indiana certainly is perplexing. Enough polls have shown the same thing that I think we have to start saying history be damned and go by the numbers.

Just weird though because there seems to be no particular reason why Obama should do so well there; he didn't even win the primary in the state. Only thing I can guess is that he's doing amazingly well in Indianapolis and its suburbs and in Lake County.

I guess I can see him pushing into the Indy suburbs a bit, but not that much, especially where the race stuff gets a bit problematic.  Lake County has always had a lot of racial tensions and working class Democrats, places where he's struggled elsewhere (and to be quite honest struggled in the primary - that county was a classic white vs. black area in the primary too, oddly enough).  Certainly he can't be gaining in the SE part of the state (Appalachia).

Basically, if Obama's making gains, perhaps we can note them by where he's campaigning.

I've seen him a lot in SW Indiana and NE Indiana (maybe I'm getting this wrong, but I don't think), so that's where I would guess it is.  NE Indiana, as I've mentioned before, is historically Republican, but gets the Democratic itch very strongly in bad economic times.  For example, a 15-20 point shift in IN-03 from 2004 wouldn't surprise me, actually.

SW Indiana is another place that typically votes much more Republican in Prez elections than in state elections, so I could see a strong shift there too (probably not 15-20 points, but still, at least 10). 

I'm at a loss to explain any more than that. 

Sounds quite plausible. I just assumed he'd do best in the areas he did best in the primary and also in the Chicago media market with a semi "home state advantage" there but who knows. Your analysis makes sense.

I'm starting to think Bayh might have actually been able to win the state for Obama. I think it would've been a barn burner at least.