Which of ME's CDs could change?

[hoshie]

I am wondering, which one of Maine's CDs could change?

[minionofmidas]

the Northern one, if any.

[The Vorlon]

the Northern one, if any.

Gore Carried CD1 by about 8% in 2000, CD2 by about 2%

There is also a hunter's/guns right initiative on the Maine Ballot in November which is anticipated to boost GOP favorable turnout, expecially in CD2.

I anticipate CD2 will perform very similar to the National PV.

[minionofmidas]

the Northern one, if any.

Gore Carried CD1 by about 8% in 2000, CD2 by about 2%

There is also a hunter's/guns right initiative on the Maine Ballot in November which is anticipated to boost GOP favorable turnout, expecially in CD2.

I anticipate CD2 will perform very similar to the National PV.

Bush got about the maximum boost possible out of the guns issue last time - that alone won't carry him any further.

[Kevinstat]

Here are some links to some of my earlier posts on this topic:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=65.msg897#msg897 - contains the results of the 2000 Presidential Election for the congressional districts that will be used in this election.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?board=5;action=display;threadid=7480;start=45 - my "reverse split" election night surprise scenario

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?board=5;action=display;threadid=7815 - my speculating on the possible effects of the referenda questions on the Presidential election

Just so you'll know, the second district as a whole is less affluent then the first district, but also seemingly more socially conservative.  (I believe a majority in the first district voted in the pro-gay rights position on each of the three referredum questions on the issue from 1995 to 2000, while the second district went the other way.  I'm not sure about all of those elections though).

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

[hoshie]

Thanks Kevin,

I am thinking that CD-2 could go Bush but it will be narrow, maybe by three points or less.