Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 22, 2017, 08:57:43 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Be sure to enable your "Ultimate Profile" for even more goodies on your profile page!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2008 Elections
| | |-+  Obama campaign scraps IN & GA from their battleground list
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: Obama campaign scraps IN & GA from their battleground list  (Read 2103 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 44324
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

View Profile
« on: August 13, 2008, 12:35:52 pm »
Ignore

or so it seems:

CHICAGO -- Today the Obama campaign announced a new TV ad focused on the economy to air beginning Thursday in 16 battleground states. The new ad entitled Book highlights Obama's plan to break with the failing economic policies of the past eight years and put America's middle class first. The ad will run in AK, CO, FL, IA, MI, MO, MT, NM, NV, NH, NC, ND, OH, PA, VA, and WI.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7KYSeGl4bks

...

Is it because of unfavorable public polling in GA and internal polling in IN, or because he'll pick Bayh and the state receives "Special Treatment" later on ... ?
Logged
Alcon
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30994
United States



View Profile
« Reply #1 on: August 13, 2008, 12:38:40 pm »
Ignore

I don't know why he'd wait to be advertising in Indiana.  I assume internal polls just look bad for him there.  This is also a very good sign that it's not Bayh, IMHO.

GA was ridiculous and someone at the Obama campaign should be humiliated by that mistake.
Logged

n/c
MODU
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22086
United States


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: August 13, 2008, 12:45:24 pm »
Ignore


Or, maybe their internal financial projections are showing a dip in donations, and they'd rather save some of their funds just in case.
Logged

Saturday's Cab Ride Home
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 81166
Ukraine


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: August 13, 2008, 12:57:03 pm »
Ignore

This made me happy, because he should've never been spending in Georgia and it lessens the chances of Bayh.
Logged

Lunar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30434
Ireland, Republic of
View Profile
« Reply #4 on: August 13, 2008, 01:03:22 pm »
Ignore

They also added Wisconsin.

Interesting.
Logged

this is real
Lunar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30434
Ireland, Republic of
View Profile
« Reply #5 on: August 13, 2008, 01:04:40 pm »
Ignore

Obama was seen filming a high-quality commercial with Bayh during his visit to Elkhart last week.  Maybe he's saving his next big ad buy in Indiana to be that commercial?  Not sure.
Logged

this is real
Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27868


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: August 13, 2008, 01:06:36 pm »
Ignore

GA - I never understood.  IN - we need to get some polling there.
Logged
MarkWarner08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5839


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: August 13, 2008, 01:07:40 pm »
Ignore

Is this a sign that Obama is saying bye to Bayh as VP?
Logged

Saturday's Cab Ride Home
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 81166
Ukraine


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: August 13, 2008, 01:08:58 pm »
Ignore

Is this a sign that Obama is saying bye to Bayh as VP?

GOD I HOPE SO
Logged

Lief 🐋
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40677
Dominica


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: August 13, 2008, 01:14:49 pm »
Ignore

GA I don't really care about. It was always a super longshot. However, I still think Obama has a shot in Indiana, until a Rasmussen poll comes out showing McCain far ahead or something.
Logged

fuck nazis
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14783


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: August 13, 2008, 01:23:39 pm »
Ignore

Is this a sign that Obama is saying bye to Bayh as VP?

GOD I HOPE SO

Or maybe it's a way to make people think that, so he can regain an element of surprise.
Logged
MarkWarner08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5839


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: August 13, 2008, 01:26:57 pm »
Ignore

Is this a sign that Obama is saying bye to Bayh as VP?

GOD I HOPE SO

Or maybe it's a way to make people think that, so he can regain an element of surprise.

A double head-fake, perhaps? I still have Bayh as the second  likeliest pick -- I'm sticking with Biden.
Logged

WalterMitty
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21618


Political Matrix
E: 1.68, S: -2.26

View Profile
« Reply #12 on: August 13, 2008, 01:39:18 pm »
Ignore

has he dropped nebraska as well?
Logged

Lunar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30434
Ireland, Republic of
View Profile
« Reply #13 on: August 13, 2008, 01:43:17 pm »
Ignore

has he dropped nebraska as well?

That's never been included in official states.  Back when they were advertising in 17 states, Karl Rove wrote an article about how it was actually 19 (I think), calling them out on Nebraska and Maryland.

Nebraska 02 counts as Iowa.
Logged

this is real
Small Business Owner of Any Repute
Mr. Moderate
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13581
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #14 on: August 13, 2008, 02:09:43 pm »
Ignore

Perhaps related, but I was listening to a story on NPR's marketplace about how the bad economy (read: slashed advertising budgets) and the Olympics (read: near 0 ratings for shows opposing the coverage) has lead to a perfect storm of ridiculously cheap advertising prices for political campaigns—as much as a 20% discount off the usual rates.

Hooray for more political ads in weirder places!
Logged

Mr Moderate at 54/10 is a total joke, he is a horror.

I think it is very possible that Vladimir Putin could be the Antichrist.  That is nothing more than an educated guess on my part.
Chris B
cb48026
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 955


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: August 13, 2008, 03:47:58 pm »
Ignore

This makes me wonder, more so than the night the VP nominee will speak is security-themed, if Joe Biden will be Obama's pick. Though it does beg the question of why would a film crew be filming footage of Obama and Bayh if Obama wasn't leaning in that direction?
Logged
Mr. Morden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35001
United States


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: August 13, 2008, 04:03:30 pm »
Ignore

As with the other supposed clues, I doubt this means very much re: Obama's VP choice.  You have to realize that *if* Obama has already decided who his running mate is going to be (and it's not a certainty that he has), then he hasn't told any more than maybe 1 or 2 people.  Any more than that, and it would inevitably leak out.

So if there was a meeting to decide which states to run ads in, nobody would have spoken up and said "Wait, we should keep running ads in Indiana because Evan Bayh is going to be on the ticket."  That wouldn't happen.  The campaign has to proceed as if the running mate choice is still completely up in the air.

So if the polls show that Obama doesn't have that much chance in Indiana, then he wouldn't run ads there.  If he picks Bayh as his running mate next week, they might reassess, but they're not going to factor the running mate into the ad buy decision right now, because you can't do that without revealing who the running mate would be.
Logged

My magnum opus is now complete.  Read the complete "The Adventures of Hobo Orgy Guy & Blondie" (now in paperback).

Watch Dave being briefed by the mods.

Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
True Federalist
Ernest
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 33932
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #17 on: August 13, 2008, 05:43:24 pm »
Ignore

I never understood why Obama was running ads in Indiana.  Georgia was always a longshot, but it was a plausible longshot, if Obama could pump up African-American voting enough while the white evangelicals decided to stay home.
Logged

Quote from: Ignatius of Antioch
He that possesses the word of Jesus, is truly able to bear his very silence. — Epistle to the Ephesians 3:21a
The one thing everyone can agree on is that the media is biased against them.
MarkWarner08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5839


View Profile
« Reply #18 on: August 13, 2008, 07:25:48 pm »
Ignore

Perhaps related, but I was listening to a story on NPR's marketplace about how the bad economy (read: slashed advertising budgets) and the Olympics (read: near 0 ratings for shows opposing the coverage) has lead to a perfect storm of ridiculously cheap advertising prices for political campaigns—as much as a 20% discount off the usual rates.

Hooray for more political ads in weirder places!
Interesting point.
Logged

Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 42248
United States


View Profile
« Reply #19 on: August 13, 2008, 09:18:45 pm »
Ignore

Early GA spending was probably a result of his utter domination there in the primary. I do expect him to do better than Kerry there but it isn't a winnable state. The same goes MS which people were buzzing about for a little while due to some close polls.

We need some public polling in IN badly. My best guess is that McCain has started to pull away in private polling.
Logged

Update lives again on Atlas After Dark. PM me for info.
Lunar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30434
Ireland, Republic of
View Profile
« Reply #20 on: August 13, 2008, 10:48:39 pm »
Ignore

OOPS

Obama is just running a different ad in Indiana.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0808/Obama_Fix_the_economy.html#comments
Logged

this is real
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3460
United States


View Profile
« Reply #21 on: August 14, 2008, 12:29:22 am »
Ignore


Interesting.... it doesn't sound like he's completely ceding Indiana yet, but rather backing off a little while testing some new ad strategies in a state which should be more receptive than many.
Logged

Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 44324
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

View Profile
« Reply #22 on: August 14, 2008, 12:35:04 am »
Ignore


Interesting.... it doesn't sound like he's completely ceding Indiana yet, but rather backing off a little while testing some new ad strategies in a state which should be more receptive than many.

That keeps Bayh and Indiana on the list. I just read that Bayh, Biden and Richardson will speak at the Convention on Wednesday, the day of the VP.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines